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October 14 saw Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have a meeting on the ground with troops concentrated at the northern Gaza Strip border section to debrief commanders about army readiness before moving westwards. And yet, the offensive was postponed over the weather, as ceiling zero makes it impossible to fully utilize combat aircraft and drones.
And in neighboring Lebanon, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who arrived in the country after talks with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, announced the organization’s readiness to intervene on the side of Palestine’s HAMAS Islamic resistance movement in case of continued massacre in Gaza. "Any step the resistance [Hezbollah] takes will cause a huge earthquake in the Zionist entity," the Iranian diplomat warned.
It is no secret that HAMAS militants have been profoundly analyzing the Israeli tactics over the past years, especially while cleansing certain Gaza Strip areas. The General Staff of the Israeli Air Force is sure the Palestinians have qualitatively prepared the region for hedgehog defense by deploying a broad system of powerful strongholds designed for long-term resistance to the advancing regular enemy troops. The Israeli command apprehends the complexity of conducting combat operations and has preliminarily estimated personnel casualties and hardware losses. These are going to be incomparably bigger than in the course of Israel's previous wars with Arab states.
Apparently, Tel Aviv has been thinking long and hard about implications of a ground operation in northern Gaza. And this is despite the US Navy carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier sent to the Jewish state’s shores, and the expected arrival of another air group comprising the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and its escort ships in Eastern Mediterranean.
Washington hastened to notify the Israelis that the Pentagon had no plans to directly engage in the military conflict, and brought a large American naval force group to the region for muscle-flexing alone. Next, Britain sent two warships to the Mediterranean. How can one do be without the "Mistress of the seas"? The United States is considering a possible deployment of two aircraft carriers to the Gulf region to monitor things in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.
In turn, the military-political leadership of Iran refrains from any direct military threats against Israel or the United States, but alludes to the dire consequences of kicking off large-scale hostilities against its allies — Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Syria.
It seems a safe bet that once Israel begins a ground operation against HAMAS, Iran will grant the go-ahead to its Lebanese ally for militarily assisting the Palestinians tooth and nail. And the Anglo-Saxons will definitely start launching missile and air strikes against both Lebanon and Iranian (for which read Syrian) objects in Syria.
Does Hezbollah have the means to inflict damage on the Israelis and the same Americans along with the historical British provocateur?
Yes, it does. The Israelis themselves have long scared the use against the air and sea bases stationed in the country of high-precision medium- and longer-range tactical missiles capable of overcoming Israel's Iron Dome. Neither have they ever ignored the threat to their warships from Hezbollah’s high-tech anti-ship complexes.
The stocks of missile weapons, combat unmanned aerial vehicles, naval torpedoes and air defenses accumulated by the South Lebanese make it possible to inflict tangible losses on the American maritime forces.
With the probability of Iran entering the war factored in, one may assume that payback is a bitch to Anglo-Saxons throughout the Middle East. They will unlikely dare entering the Persian Gulf waters, so as to avert being inevitably locked up under the gun of opponents. To Washington, a front against Lebanon’s Shiite and in other parts of the Middle East will be quite enough: all the US military facilities in Iraq and Syria will be mercilessly obliterated by Shiite rebel militias.
In the coming days, or perhaps even hours, we should expect the tension spring release. There are only two ways out here: the Israeli military embark upon a ground operation, or decide to cancel it. The ball is with the Jewish state, as the common folk say.
Will this war somehow affect the interests of Russia or its limited military contingent in Syria? It certainly will. Russia and Syria are bound by a treaty stipulating for mandatory military and other kinds of assistance in case of an armed attack against any of the parties. Moscow has refrained from using its weapons several times in response to armed provocations by the United States and Israel, and has been taking preventive measures to enhance safety these latter days, judging by the most recent official data.
Thus, the Russian Ministry of Defense said the Black Sea Fleet command has ordered an anti-torpedo force-use exercises at its principal base in Sevastopol. Amid the anticipatory warship dissipation, part of the marine equipment was moved to the Sukhumi seaport’s deep-water protected bay. Apparently, there have also been a series of other measures to counter the enemy.