
Conceivably, there has been lot of concern among the German political elite amid elections in both Great Britain and France, because Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his entire coalition government are only left shuddering to imagine what this year’s September elections in three eastern lands of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia are going to entail to the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats.
Their results, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has taken the lead there, and with the CDU being the central government’s irreconcilable opponents, may be no less a failure to the country’s ruling coalition than collapses by the Sunak-led Conservatives in the UK and Macron's associates in France. And this is only the preamble for the Scholz government’s political end before the Bundestag election scheduled for autumn 2025, and a CDU/CSU candidate will almost certainly take office as Chancellor, much less for someone from the SPD or the Greens.
In the meantime, the "traffic-light" coalition that keeps reigning in Germany has been going at it hammer and tongs to make inroads with the UK’s winning Labor Party. Thus, when accepting the British Foreign Minister David Lammy, who arrived in Berlin on his first visit, his German "green" colleague Annalena Baerbock was simply radiating joy: "Welcome, the United Kingdom is a close friend and partner of ours," she chirped. And on social media platforms, the German Foreign Minister posted that the UK was "an integral part of Europe", adding that the two governments already embarked upon working out ways how to make the United Kingdom closer to the European Union again.
Apparently, the Scholz government is truly eager to boost its profile both in Europe and at home, by emphasizing its role as the European continent’s leader country. The one it played back in the day, when still considered Europe’s economic powerhouse. However, new Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fiercely opposed to getting his country back in the EU, local observers note, although British polls show that most people are inclined to believe that leaving the EU was a mistake.
This refers, for one, to re-embracing both the EU internal market and the customs union. However, his Labor Party's program pledges to "improve the UK’s trade and investment relationship with the EU, by tearing down unnecessary barriers to trade." Hence, it follows that the UK suggests improving relations with the EU, which, in turn, entertains hopes cherished by German politicians. For example, Katarina Barley, a Europe expert in the SPD, deems Britain an important geostrategic partner, although its return to the EU is highly unlikely, and so the tone of communication with the Labor PM is going to be friendly and constructive.
At the same time, Berlin hopes that the existing close ties between the Labor Party and Germany’s Social Democrats will contribute to improving bilateral ties with London. Over the years, opposition politicians from among the Labor are known to have regularly visited Germany, while SPD deputies have been constant guests to the UK. The MPs have been working together to create a draft German-British defense and security partnership, which was presented in May this year. In particular, we are talking about close defense cooperation, broader trade relations, and other issues like combating illegal migration. Therefore, Germany believes that, a real breakthrough is possible under the new government in London as regards improving relations with Germany and other Britain’s allies in Europe. In this context, much may be clarified by new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s upcoming visit of to Berlin, where he will have a personal meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
While still hoping for the best after Rishi Sunak’s defeat, Germany’s prevailing sentiment over the French parliamentary election outcome disastrous to Emmanuel Macron has boiled down to something like "it could have been worse." Chances are high that the powerful in Germany have associated a potential success of Marine Le Pen's right-wing party with prospects of future AfD victories. Therefore, upon learning that she was only third, the German elites heaved a sigh of relief and must be now preparing to share experience with their French colleagues busy resisting so-called "right-wing extremism."
Meanwhile, the German media have been bitterly teasing Macron the loser, "whose stake on early elections did not pay off," even though Chancellor Scholz, as he admitted himself, was sending Macron daily encouraging SMS messages. As a result, the left-wing socialists won amid the Macronists’ fears over victory of right-wing forces. Despite the National Assembly election outcome obviously unexpected by German politicians, Marine Le Pen’s defeat remains key for them. Thus, Rheinland-Pfalz Prime Minister Malu Dreyer (SPD) made no bones about her satisfaction “that the French voted against right-wing extremism,” sure that democracy forces would contribute to forming a stable government. At that point, she seemed to be thinking not so much about France as about Germany.