In early March, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that despite its allied relations with Kiev, Ankara has no intention to send military personnel to Ukraine. On April 20, speaking at the traditional ruling Justice and Development Party faction meeting, he accused one of the NATO member-states of seeking to prolong the war in Ukraine to hurt Russia.
At the same time, the Turkish minister stressed that his country initially advocated conflict termination and negotiations. According to Cavusoglu, Turkey maintained its non-interference stance as Ankara alone managed to mediate in direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. Those took place at the level of foreign ministers on March 10 and 29 in Antalya and Istanbul, respectively.
A little earlier, Turkish president’s personal adviser Ibrahim Kalin said Recep Tayyip Erdogan appreciated relations with Russia and had no intention to complicate them by joining sanctions against it. Ankara provides humanitarian assistance to Kiev, condemns the annexation of Crimea and does not recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the adviser explained.
It is quite clear that talking about "one of the NATO member-states" Cavusoglu implies the United States, with Washington being the only one able to effectively put the screws on Ankara. However, both capitals are by and large aware of inexpediency and, perhaps, even toxicity of Recep Erdogan's potential waiver from his chosen stance regarding the Donbass conflict.
Despite all the neutrality statements, the Turks have provided considerable military and technical assistance to the Ukrainian nationalist regime. Even before the whole thing got started, as well as in the early stages, they mobilized and transported several hundred Syrian militants to Ukraine, delivered some 200 unmanned strike vehicles along with ammunition and control equipment. Advisers, instructors and technical specialists were sent to assist the Ukrainian troops. A perfect evidence was a Turkish War Academies graduation chevron found near Azovstal in Mariupol.
Russia’s special military campaign in Ukraine will hardly wrap up soon, and it seems a safe bet that future will see other facts of Turkey's engagement on the side of the Ukrainian regime.
It is worth noting that Washington, although annoyed by Ankara's intransigence, is compelled to refrain from tough talk, as it perfectly understands the role and importance of NATO’s southern ally. Historically, Turkey has been and remains Russia’s real military and political opponent, which those across the ocean are not lost on.
For the time being, the Turks attempt to spread and consolidate their influence both in the region and beyond. At first glance it may seem that in Syria or Iraq, the Turks sometimes act counter to the American interests, as Washington has chosen the Kurds as its allies in the "Western coalition", while the Turks regards them as terrorists. Yet the Anglo-Saxons have also always been guided by their own interests alone, with alliances being temporary.
The same with the Kurds ˗ at present, the United States needs their military establishment to keep the region torn by discord and chaos, and to govern it from the outside. Here the Turks remain reliable partners to the Americans, who are adding fuel to the flame by helping anti-state armed groups in Syria. As for the Syrian Kurds, their fate will remain unchanged: sooner or later the Americans will set them adrift and throw to the Turks. Too bad their leaders loathe to admit this.
True is that Turkey refused to impose severe restrictions against Russia citing the absence of a relevant UN decision. Sure thing! Ankara is cognizant that it’s impossible by default.
The Turkish leadership’s current statements should be primarily considered a result of the Donbass special operation and Moscow’s determination to get away with all of Ukraine’s Nazism and incubating fascism. Mr. Erdogan has got another opportunity to make sure what Vladimir Putin is capable of, after a large group of Muslims was rescued from captivity in besieged Mariupol’s nationalist "wasp nest".
The Turks fear and respect only powerful opponents, and Russia remains one of them. Therefore, Ankara has to reckon with Moscow's response to certain actions, while advancing its narrow national interests in a typically blatant way. For a later time, it seems.
