The European energy market situation keeps deteriorating, and the number of reasons grows for the EU to plunge into a large-scale industry crisis. Even Rhine shallowing over the heatwave contributes to the troublesome resource supply: navigation has been now limited, making adequate shipments quite challenging, including energy cargo (coal and petroleum products). Climatologists forecast that navigation may soon die away altogether.
The European’s Union major problem is certainly gas shortages triggered by the anti-Russian sanctions hype. While unrestrainedly expanding limitations, the West has eventually stumbled upon the pitchfork itself. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned the EU authorities about the "sanctions boomerang" because of their obsession with generating and accepting endless anti-Russian "packages".
Gas shortage can be promptly addressed by starting to restore undermined cooperation with Gazprom by easing sanctions. But politicized Russian energy resources prevent Brussels bureaucrats from embarking on a course of rationalism. They have tilted toward the notorious plan to forcibly reduce gas consumption (by 15% starting August 1), which does not enjoy overwhelming support with the member states (the means will remain voluntary unless the European Commission declares a "union-wide alert" over supply interruption threats).
Nevertheless, the EU authorities keep pinning their hopes on Nord Stream gas, seeking to ensure that the underground storage facilities get filled by the cold season. But making the trans-Baltic system work in nominal (not "truncated" as it is now) mode requires bringing the repaired Siemens turbine from Canada back to its proper location at Russia’s Portovaya compressor station. Certain logistics progress occurred back in the heart of summer, as the equipment was eventually sent to Germany after lengthy approvals. Having arrived there, the item "got stuck", making the epic go on and on.
On August 11, the Russian Embassy in Berlin issued an explanation that bringing it to Germany fails to meet contract provisions, with a confirmation needed that it would not fall under sanctions. Gazprom has yet to obtain the relevant documents. Otherwise, it won’t be able to accept the repaired turbine or send other units for repair.
In general, this may be regarded as Moscow's legal response to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s public appeal to Gazprom to "take away" the Siemens turbine for Nord Stream.
So far, the situation remains a Mexican standoff. Gazprom does not accept the turbine, saying its priority is to comply with legal norms and to avoid new restrictions. The giant thus hints that the West should contemplate easing anti-Russian sanctions, and simultaneously seeks to persuade the European Commission to resume the licensing process for the turnkey Nord Stream 2.
Meanwhile, curious reports have appeared in the German press about the pipeline’s fate. Süddeutsche Zeitung, for instance, writes that representatives of several political parties are sure it’s time to put Nord Stream 2 into full-scale commercial operation to avoid both industrial slowdown and social collapse in the country. A group of German deputies considers any delays in resolving the issue very dangerous, with popular riots looming because of the rising natural gas prices. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been turning a deaf ear to them and continuing to drone on the blocked Nord Stream 2. Still, pipe certification was frozen not by alien beings but a specialized federal regulator whose decision Scholz is authorized to sway. Back in July, Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded him about the pipeline’s capacity, but the Chancellor ranked the issue number ten on his priority list.
Scholz does realize that launching Nord Stream 2 will help the European Union’s deeply battered energy security. However, it will also indicate Gazprom’s historic victory over Brussels for the new trans-Baltic route, which the European bureaucrats can ill afford. It is still summer now, and fair heat breaks no bones, as the saying goes. But a frosty winter is another pair of shoes. The upcoming season change may trigger the commissars’ snap back to reality, making prospects that Nord Stream 2 gas will "warm" Europe this winter quite a real thing.
