Pentagon launches military operation against Houthis

The Pentagon chief intends to announce a military operation against the North Yemeni armed groups known as Ansar Allah (the Houthi tribe) during his tour of the Middle East starting on December 19, 2023. The US military department has embarked upon operations plan generation, titling the mission "Prosperity Guardian". A report to that effect came today from The War Gonzo with reference to DoD sources.

Two American warships have been operating in the Red Sea zone, along with Britain’s and France’s one for each, tasked with intercepting Iranian seacraft and ensuring merchant shipping safety.

In November and December this year, the Houthis carried out several armed attacks against large vessels, including a Bulgarian container ship and a Norwegian supertanker. All of them headed for Israel as their final destination.

Houthi Red Sea activity against Israel has been demonstratively provocative as their series of attacks using missiles and drones forced major container transportation companies to refrain from shipments in the area. Now, about half of those is carried out bypassing Africa. Indeed, the "Red Sea blockade" will incur the Jewish state more costs than before, but that's about it.

The Israelis can easily receive ships in the Mediterranean ports of Ashdod, Haifa and Tel Aviv, while the Yemenis suffer from insurmountable supply issues concerning the basic necessities and food, as its friendly ships will be only left with a single option of Houthi-controlled Hodeidah seaport. This primarily refers to vessels from the Arab countries (of which there are not that many) and Iran. In case of a Hodeidah’s blockade by NATO warships, the people of Yemen may start starving.

Most likely, Operation Prosperity Guardian will first feature a naval blockade of the Hodeidah seaport by ships belonging to the American, British and French Navies, with a subsequent systematic destruction of Ansar Allah military infrastructure facilities. Lloyd Austin’s trip to the Middle East is meant to engage Arab allies and Jews in the upcoming operation. Which of them may really join the coalition?

First, these are Israel, Egypt and possibly the UAE.

An ally of Iran, the Houthis have deemed Israel as an implacable enemy, backing the Palestinians in Gaza and launching several missile attacks against Israel’s military assets.

Egypt, fearing "shutdown" navigation in the Red Sea, is already suffering profound financial losses over the lesser use of its Suez Canal, with its revenues accounting for over a third of the country’s overall GDP. Egypt is part of the coalition of Arab States, which used to wage war against the Houthis until recently.

The UAE keeps taking an unbending stance towards Ansar Allah, and may resume hostilities in Northern Yemen, even though peace is now much preferable to Abu Dhabi than another war.

As for Saudi Arabia, its leadership will seek negotiating the non-use of force against its ships with the Houthis: the country is hardly interested in a confrontation with its southern neighbor quite able to attack the seaport in Jeddah, a hub for all the supplies coming to the holy Muslim cities of Mecca and Medina. And then, the Saudis are surely reluctant to mar their new-sprung relations with Iran.

Are the Houthis able to withstand attacks by the Americans and their allies?

It all comes down to what kinds of hi-tech weapons Ansar Alla has. The Iranians seem to have already smuggled ballistic missiles into North Yemen capable of overcoming the enemy's missile defense and striking at least one or two NATO naval targets in the Red Sea whatsoever. In case of at least one American frigate hit — with casualties and damage, — Brother Johnathan and his allies would take to their heels.

One way or another, the US administration’s intent to join the conflict with the Houthis on the side of Israel is playing with fire, since Yemen’s conflicting northern and southern parts may rally up to jointly combat Israel and America. In this kind of scenario, the Arabian Sea’s port of Aden (a former naval base) would be lost to the United States and its ilk, with the Mandab Strait between the Arabian and Red Seas closed to Yemen's opponents.

Are the Americans going to accept such an outcome?

Of course, Brother Johnathan would seek to set the Arabs together by the ears while staying aside himself. However, the US regional clout has been on a decrease, as the strategy of "pulling chestnuts out of the fire by proxy" can only provoke rejection.