Japanese PM and wonders of sociology

Amid mounting pressure on Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign, Sanae Takaichi, who previously served as Minister of Economic Security, has been identified as the top candidate to become the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) according to a poll by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper. In essence, voters see her as the country’s future head of government.

In the nationwide survey, 24 percent of respondents named Takaichi the most suitable candidate for the position, 21 percent favored Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, and only 14 percent chose the incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Notably, even among LDP supporters, Ishiba is not seen as the optimal party leader. 31 percent of respondents in this group chose Koizumi, while only 23 percent named Ishiba. Takaichi received a mere 12 percent.

The poll was conducted as the ruling party initiated a procedure that could lead to Ishiba’s removal as party chairman — and consequently, as Prime Minister. The party has made an unprecedented decision to prepare for an early leadership election following its devastating defeat in the parliamentary polls and a broad decline in the LDP’s popularity. Preparations are now underway for a party conference where the issue of an early election may be tabled. If the majority votes in favor, Ishiba’s prospects of retaining the party leadership — as suggested by the current poll — appear highly doubtful.

Yet paradoxically, there is no clear consensus within the party or among the Japanese electorate about the need for a change in national leadership.

For example, 52 percent of all respondents in the current poll supported the idea of the LDP holding an early election. However, only 38 percent of LDP supporters were in favor of an early vote, while 50 percent were opposed.

Meanwhile, according to a Kyodo News agency survey, the approval rating of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet has risen to 35.4 percent. Moreover, 57.5 percent of respondents stated that he should not resign. Other polls also indicate that most voters currently do not want Ishiba to step down.

In the end, polling data suggests that while voters do not see Ishiba as the ideal leader and believe there are better candidates, they also do not want him to quit. The confusion in political preferences has been all but evident.

The situation appears to stem from the fact that the LDP has become embroiled in two major scandals over the past two years. First, it was revealed that prominent party members had extensive ties with the Unification Church, which can easily be characterized as a totalitarian sect. Then the public learned that party leaders were involved in shady dealings, creating slush funds from voter donations. It was precisely in the wake of these revelations that Ishiba came to power as an untainted figure. However, the image of the party he leads has been severely tarnished, leading to defeats in last and this year’s elections, making the LDP lose its majority in both houses of parliament, even despite its coalition with Komeito.

On the other hand, the Prime Minister himself has little to boast about. He came to power in October last year but has failed to effectively address rising prices — especially for rice, Japan’s staple food, which has doubled in price over the year.

Relations with the Trump administration have also been rocky, with Japan stunned by US tariff hikes — reportedly around 15 percent, but potentially up to 25 percent. Ishiba, rushed before the elections, reached an agreement with the Americans that was only verbal. Discrepancies in interpretation were not long in coming, and clarity has yet to emerge, even with billions at stake. However much Japanese media and business leaders may hint that with Trump, Japan is dealing with a transgressor of all the rules and norms (to put it mildly), this remains a misstep by Ishiba.

He himself insists that he must stay at the helm during this critical juncture for Japan and the world. The government now faces numerous tasks, such as demonstrating a correct stance regarding the outcomes of World War II, the 80^th anniversary of which is being observed in August and September. In other words, this is especially not the time for the humiliating prime ministerial musical chairs — which plagued Japan in the 2000s and 2010s — unbecoming of a serious nation.

As we can see, the electorate seems to agree with this. But not the party activists.

Calls for his resignation are strongly voiced by the promising party youth wing, led by hereditary politician Yasutaka Nakasone. Ishiba is also being pressured by the two largest conservative factions within the LDP, one of which includes Sanae Takaichi. In the last party leadership election, she made it to the second round but lost to Ishiba. Now she has a comeback chance.

Notably, electing a woman leader for the first time — and one with nationalist views, given the pressure from the far right — could help restore the LDP’s image. However, she will have to fight not only for the party leadership but also for the post of Prime Minister. The LDP is in the minority in parliament, and it is unclear how the opposition will behave. While the position of LDP leader has traditionally guaranteed the premiership, after a series of electoral defeats the party has lost its majority in both houses and can no longer unequivocally ensure its candidate is elected Prime Minister by parliament.

She could be blocked if the opposition unites. But that would be another crushing blow to the LDP, signaling that the leading political party is undergoing a systemic crisis.

In short, Japan is in for a hot political autumn. Problems have been mounting, while politicians are bogged down in infighting.