October 6 witnessed French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu submit his resignation to the Republic’s President, Emmanuel Macron, amidst widespread criticism. As reported by the Elysée Palace’s press service, the head of state did accept the resignation.
Lecornu's tenure as head of the government has turned out to be the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic, lasting a mere 27 days. Prior to this, the record for the shortest term as head of government belonged to Michel Barnier, who resigned in December 2024 after serving as PM for just over three months.
Late on October 5, Secretary General of the French Presidency Emmanuel Moulin announced the first part of the list for the country's new government. Among the 18 names in it, 13 ministers from the previous government retained their posts or were appointed to new ones, while one of the most notable changes was the appointment of former Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire as Minister of Defense. In total, according to media reports, the new government should include about 25 people, with the rest of the names to be announced shortly.
This move drew sharp criticism not only with the opposition, which promised to bring a vote of no confidence against the prime minister, but also with reconfirmed Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau. He expressed dissatisfaction with the choice of ministers and stated that such a lineup "does not reflect a break" with the previous policy. In this regard, Retailleau promised to convene a meeting of the strategic committee of The Republicans party early on October 6. Meanwhile, one of the party's vice-chairmen, Mayor of Cannes David Lisnard, threatened to leave the party in case of no consensus regarding The Republicans’ further engagement in Lecornu's government.
Amid this political split, the prime minister's resignation followed.
In this context, Sergey Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, notes that "most likely, the current systemic crisis in France will end with an early parliamentary election. The government, after the prime minister's departure, will proceed with its duties for some time until a new one is formed. And an early parliamentary election will take place before New Year, if any. But the problem is that, first, Macron has only a year and a half left in his term, and he is very reluctant to consider dissolving Parliament, albeit it seems the only way out. According to polls, the results will be even worse for Macron. Therefore, there is no way out of this political crisis, and if Macron appoints a fourth prime minister, again, it is unclear what he would be counting on and how he could form a majority in Parliament from the very fragmented and mutually oppositional political forces currently present in the lower house. The dominating ones are the far-right, the far-left, and the hardly influential centrist 'Macronists'. This combination, a circular-firing-squad situation, will not allow a government, which could theoretically be appointed, rely on any majority in Parliament, and thus the root cause of the crisis is not eliminated. Therefore, no light is visible at the end of the tunnel. As for Macron's resignation, it is feasible though legally difficult and requiring complex procedures. Therefore, the most acceptable and likely way out is a new early election to Parliament."
The expert also emphasized that "according to polls, right-wing parties are currently the most popular. Therefore, if new elections are held, Marine Le Pen's National Rally may strengthen its presence in the lower house. But this does not guarantee them an absolute majority to form their own government. And a relative majority will only strengthen their political position without solving the crisis, and political instability is going to persist. So, there is a certain prospect in an early parliamentary election, but one cannot say for sure that this will overcome the political, or rather institutional, crisis of the French Fifth Republic."
