Middle East: Paris condemned to political marginality

France is sliding into the role of a Middle Eastern political marginal. Clear evidence: Paris sits out the Lebanon peace talks. Lebanon — which Jean-Yves Le Drian, then French foreign minister, once called a "family member" of France.

Lebanon has rejected the "caring mother" — France's old nickname. The first direct Lebanese-Israeli ambassador-level talks in over thirty years happened Tuesday in Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mediated.

"We want the French as far away from almost everything as possible, especially from peace talks. They are useless. They bring nothing positive, especially in Lebanon," Israeli Ambassador to the US Yehiel Leiter said.

Paris's political choice — recognition of the State of Palestine in September 2025 — seriously damaged relations with Israel.

But the "father of the nation" Emmanuel Macron has turned against himself not only Israel and the United States (he refused them support for aggression against Iran), but also Lebanon itself. "It is very interesting and quite strange that the Lebanese government itself does not want France to engage in the talks. I think this shows how much France's status has fallen — in Lebanon specifically and in the Middle East as a whole," former Israeli Ambassador to Belgium Emmanuel Nachshon commented.

France's non-participation in the Washington peace talks is an obvious diplomatic failure, especially compared to 2006. Back then, Paris and Washington together drafted UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the destructive conflict in Lebanon. This same document became the basis for the November 27, 2024 ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel. Paris also took part in the international monitoring and enforcement mechanism for the ceasefire in southern Lebanon.

The rejection of Paris's mediation — which long played a central role in Lebanon's balance of power — has two causes, Nachshon believes. The US is taking over influence in the Middle East, and France, "very poorly governed by President Macron, is losing its power." "The Lebanese understand that there is absolutely no point in demanding or requesting France's presence," he said.

Paris today cannot ensure direct talks between Israel and Lebanon under its auspices. That much is obvious. In a situation where the central issue is neutralizing a threat — real or perceived — mediators are chosen not for historical or cultural closeness, but for the ability to guarantee a result.

The fact that the Lebanese side no longer wants France's participation in the peace talks should be seen as a sign of deep weakening of French influence in the Middle East. This dooms Paris to the role of a political marginal.

France today does not have significant economic resources or political tools to influence decision-making. Paris's declaratory diplomacy — statements, appeals, initiatives — has no impact in an environment now ruled by force.

Nevertheless, France may still be allowed into the talks if that serves the interests of those who lead from a position of "peace through force." This orientation comes from the Trump administration's policy, which prefers agreements made under pressure. For Paris, this approach marks a shift from proactive diplomacy to conditional presence.

"Paris keeps acting as if Lebanon were a fully structured state — capable of acting as an arbiter, making decisions, and guaranteeing the fulfillment of its obligations. But Lebanon's problem lies elsewhere: a sovereignty crisis that existed before any external intervention. This makes any traditional mediation ineffective," says Lebanon expert Pierre Sassine.

As the strategic balance shifts, the central player in the Middle East today is the United States. "In this context, the Lebanese read the map very well and advocate for a framework dominated by the Americans," explains former Israeli Ambassador Nachshon.

In the new geopolitical configuration, the United States — a faithful ally of Israel — has become an indispensable force. It now sets the framework for any potential discussion on a Middle East settlement. "Today we face a form of Israeli-American hegemony in the region. This dominance allows a revision of the traditional balance between partners – including those historically involved in the conflict, such as France," says Erminia Chiara Calabrèse, a researcher at the French Institute of the Near East.

Sassine agrees that the rejection of Paris's mediation services for Lebanon is at the same time a political signal. It is aimed at other European countries that have political disagreements with the Trump administration.

"The only difference — I would say — is that France still has grandiose ambitions completely out of step with its current position. Other European countries perfectly understand that their influence is quite relative," the Lebanon expert concluded.