Kiev intensifies pressure on Japan over arms supplies

With Patriot missiles running dangerously low, Ukrainian Prime Minister Sergei Koretsky has publicly pinned his hopes on Japan providing Kiev with air-defense systems. «I would like to ask for just one thing — interceptors», Koretsky told the Kyodo news agency on August 23. Nor is this the first time Kiev has formally turned to Tokyo for arms.

On August 3, Vladimir Zelensky pressed Japan with remarkable bluntness, declaring that «the expected results have not been achieved» and that «they are insignificant as compared to Japan's true capabilities». The Office of the President of Ukraine published this statement, along with accompanying commentary, following Zelensky's address to a gathering of foreign ambassadors.

Ukraine's intensified lobbying on this front is largely explained by the fact that in April Japan liberalized its defense-export regulations. Under the revised three principles on the transfer of defense equipment and technology, countries seeking military aid must now conclude agreements with Japan on protecting classified information in order to qualify for the transfer of lethal weapons. Ratification is not required. Arms exports to countries embroiled in conflicts are actually prohibited — yet any such deliveries may be approved by the government. In essence, this is a matter of a specific political decision that does not parliamentary approval.

On the other hand, Japan has joined NATO's program for the procurement of US-made weapons for Ukraine. On 29 May, Japan's Foreign Ministry announced that Tokyo had allocated some $14.7 million under the PURL initiative — a NATO framework through which participating countries purchase US-manufactured weaponry for Ukraine. This marks Japan's first tranche under the PURL program. Russia's Foreign Ministry has already come up with a sharp reaction to reports that Tokyo was exploring this matter. It is assumed that the funds will be used to procure non-lethal military equipment and hardware. Japan had previously provided drone-detection systems and other gear through other NATO channels.

Thus, precedents in this sphere have been established.

Overall, Japan's total assistance to Ukraine since the start of the Special Military Operation has reached $20 billion. This was announced on February 19 at a press conference by Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi. In terms of the scale of aid to Ukraine, Japan shares second or third place with Germany, trailing the United States alone, and is Kiev's largest donor outside NATO. Tokyo has also steadfastly upheld all sanctions imposed by the Group of Seven on Russia.

As Japanese Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated at a press conference on August 24, the Japanese government is not currently considering the possibility of transferring armaments to Ukraine as part of its support for Kiev. «At this moment, the government is not considering the transfer of weapons to Ukraine», he emphasized in response to journalists' requests for comment on Ukrainian Prime Minister Sergei Koretsky's statement.

Nevertheless, abstractions of the kind are unlikely to satisfy Moscow.

As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko stated as early as July 19 in an interview with TASS: «We have repeatedly conveyed to the official authorities of that country that by aiding the neo-Nazi regime of Zelensky, Japan is becoming ever more deeply entangled in the Ukrainian conflict, driving relations with Russia into an even deeper abyss. I am compelled to reiterate that weaponry posing a threat to our country, as well as any production facilities for such weaponry on Ukrainian soil, constitute legitimate military targets for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation».

Yet a weightier step to date appears to be Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to the Southern Kurils, along with a series of sharp diplomatic démarches undertaken by the Russian side in this context.

Without delving into Russia's broader agenda, we shall note that Tokyo's extremely nervous reaction to Putin's trip was easily predictable, and once again demonstrated that this kind of moves are highly unwelcome to Japan's ruling circles — for they publicly underscore, yet again, their utter impotence in securing the return of the «northern territories» through political and diplomatic means under current conditions.

This is particularly unpleasant for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is revealing failures on the two main fronts of her foreign policy.

As a result of last year's impromptu parliamentary outburst regarding Taiwan, Japan-China relations have fallen into a deep crisis. This has displeased both the business community and experts considerably.

Nor are relations with the US in good shape, following Tokyo's refusal to assist Trump in his Iranian campaign. It remains unclear what «therapy» — a pause in arms deliveries, a scaling back of joint exercises — the American president will apply given his retentive memory, but judging by the kicks he is administering to the Europeans and South Koreans, there can be no doubt about his treatment.

Opposition to Takaichi is also mounting within the ranks of her own ruling Liberal Democratic Party, where party bosses, openly criticizing the government's tax policy, appear to be thoroughly exasperated with her overall style of leadership.

Amid this, Russian policy intensification — both in terms of the economic development of the Southern Kurils and in the military-political sphere regarding China and North Korea — will only serve to highlight the helplessness of Japan's current Prime Minister on the Russian front. As, indeed, that of her successors.