World oil market enters new year without optimism

Early in the year the world oil market witnessed a sizeable growth of oil prices as compared to the lows of December's second ten-day period, when the price for Brent benchmark oil was below $50 per barrel. And now, starting January 8th,  the figure has approached $60 and often exceeds this mark.

Such a significant upward correction did not come as a surprise – January saw the formal beginning of the new OPEC+ agreement adopted on December 7th, 2018 to reduce oil production. As arranged, the consolidated oil production cut should reach 1.2 million barrels. Stock gamblers are now taking a lead from this resolution.

But volatility remains high in the global hydrocarbon market – speculators' stake on the OPEC+ agreement is not a long-term one. And the stage of an oil prices slump in November-December 2018 inspired pessimistic forecasts.

For instance, the World Bank's report on World Economic Outlook for January predicts a drop in the average 2019 oil price to $67 per barrel. "Oil prices are expected to be at $67 a barrel in 2019 and 2020, which is $2 lower than expected in June," the document says.

In turn, financial services company Morgan Stanley also cut the 2019 forecast for oil prices. In absolute terms the decrease accounted for $7.5 per barrel. According to the Morgan Stanley forecast, in the first quarter a barrel of Brent crude will cost an average $58. The previous forecast pointed to $65 per barrel. For the second and the third quarters the figure is $60 and $62.5 per barrel respectively.

The average 2018 oil price (the simple average number for Brent, Dubai and WTI benchmarks), according to the World Bank, stands at $68 per barrel, which is slightly lower as compared to the June forecasts, but some 30 percent higher than in 2017.

This year, apart from the need to observe the discipline as regards production limits, it is also important for OPEC+ to prevent long-lasting silence in verbal interventions. However, the creation of an information realm in support of the barrel is becoming increasingly complicated – stock gamblers managed to get used to the "cartel" signals and become less immune to them. After all, the Vienna deal was clinched more than two years ago. The union will now have to be more sophisticated in promoting the impact of the limiting agreement.

For the national oil industry, 2018 was rather successful altogether. Oil production increased by 1.6% (10 million) to 556 million tons. Quite a good figure given the execution of the OPEC+ deal and, besides, a historical record (putting aside the Soviet time). There is all the more reason for this as the average 2018 price for Russian oil was approaching $70 per barrel, which allowed oil companies secure fat profit margins.

But oil producers' nervousness for 2019 is still relevant. Once again it became necessary to get back to the quota allocation scheme. Global economic growth may slow down. And the forecast background on oil prices by international analytical groups can be referred to as moderate.

There are still no accurate estimates regarding the impact of anti-Iranian sanctions, as well as the timing and dynamics of restoring oil production in Venezuela.

Moreover, as of the end of 2019, the World Bank expects a one-million-barrel growth in daily oil production by the United States. If forecasts for the American shale oil production begin to come true, the effects of the new OPEC+ agreement will be leveled out.

Therefore, it is more reasonable for Russian oil and gas corporations to proceed from conservative scenarios for global hydrocarbon market development rather than to reckon upon optimism. 2019 is unlikely to be more progressive for the industry than its predecessor. Besides, tax rules have changed dramatically, and the government is seeking oil companies' compliance with the moratorium on price increases in the domestic fuel market.

However, despite the risks of oil market overstocking in 2019, event-driven incentives for the growth of barrel cost are expected. Thus, the first ten days of May will see an end to the six-month period of US sanctions relief provided in early November to a number of key oil buyers from Iran. Limitation of exports of Tehran's hydrocarbons can cheer up the sensitive industry dramatically. In addition, the geopolitical aspect will intensify as Iran promised to confront the US and block the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in response to sanctions. Commenting on this scenario, the Pentagon threatened to unlock the waterway by force. And potential military clashes in the Persian Gulf can add more than a dozen dollars to barrel's price assessment.