Top stories in the Russian press on Tuesday, February 4, prepared by TASS

Media: Erdogan urges Russia not to stand in Turkish army’s way

The death of Turkish troops in Idlib may not only undermine cooperation between Moscow and Ankara in Syria but also raise tensions between the two countries. Russia and Turkey have different views of the reasons behind the recent incident, as well as about the development in the Idlib de-escalation zone, where the Syrian army is advancing with the support of the Russian military. Four Russian special forces members were killed in military action in early February, Kommersant writes.

According to Turkish security expert Metin Gurcan, Ankara has lost hope of making an agreement with Russia, who is unwilling to stop the Syrian army’s advance in Idlib. The expert did not rule out a rapprochement between Ankara and Washington.

Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semenov, however, believes that Moscow and Ankara will eventually agree on a new partition of the region. "Turkey has no choice but to reinforce the Syrian opposition and its own strongholds in Syria because it understands that [Syrian President Bashar] Assad can continue the offensive any time and will not rest until he liberates all of Idlib, while Russia will just shrug its shoulders," Semenov pointed out.

"Strictly speaking, the developments around Idlib are the result of Turkey’s failure to ensure the implementation of the agreements reached with Russia in Sochi in the fall of 2018, which are enshrined in the Memorandum on stabilizing the situation in the Idlib de-escalation zone," military expert Yuri Lyamin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Russian International Affairs Council expert Anton Mardasov, in turn, noted that Russia is still searching for ways to balance efforts to boost relations with Ankara and strengthen its own positions at the highest levels of the Syrian government. According to him, "Moscow expects that the situation with Ankara will be resolved even if the most negative scenarios take place in Idlib." Mardasov added that Russia and Turkey had other issues for cooperation, including Kurdish separatism and the armed conflict in Libya.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Saudis keeps Iran out of ‘deal of the century’ discussion

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has held an emergency meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss US President Donald Trump’s plan to resolve the Middle East conflict. However, the meeting was overshadowed by a squabble between the host country and Iran. Members of the Iranian delegation had been denied visas without any explanation. In response, Tehran issued a protest and demanded that the OIC headquarters be relocated from the Saudi city of Jeddah, Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote.

The OIC, known as the Organization of the Islamic Conference before 2011, was founded in 1969 and currently consists of 57 member states. From the very start, supporting the Palestinians against Israel has been one of the organization’s goals. However, OIC members’ reaction to Trump’s initiative makes it clear that they view ways to resolve the conflict differently. Although the Saudi king expressed support for Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who had rejected "the deal of the century," the country’s Foreign Ministry called on Palestine and Israel to launch direct talks brokered by Washington. Iran, in turn, strongly opposes US mediation between the Israelis and the Palestinians, as well as the dialogue itself.

According to Senior Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sazhin, Iran was denied participation in the OIC summit particularly because the meeting was expected to discuss Trump’s peace plan. Tehran’s delegation would have made discussions of "the deal of the century" tougher than many Muslim countries would have liked. At the same time, the move to deny Iran access to the event will have serious consequences, the expert pointed out.

"Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have never been good, but last year, tensions hit new highs. Riyadh and Tehran had been trying to build dialogue in the past month but now the situation will get worse," Sazhin predicted. "I think that Saudi Arabia was not the only one behind the decision not to allow Iran take part in the OIC summit. It is a decision made by several Arab countries who, to put it mildly, have strained relations with Tehran," the expert emphasized.

Izvestia: 2019-nCoV virus to jolt markets harder than SARS

The novel coronavirus will prove to be a huge negative shock for China in the first quarter of 2020, Izvestia wrote, citing research by the prominent US-based multinational investment bank JPMorgan. The spread of the novel coronavirus will have a stronger impact on the global economy than the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic did back in 2002-2003. If the virus continues to spread, it will threaten global economic growth, analysts say.

The epidemic poses a danger to one of the drivers behind the market growth of the past months, that is, it jeopardizes expectations that the global economy will recover this year, Sovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasilyev pointed out.

On Monday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index fell by 7.7%, the largest drop since August 2015. The Moscow Exchange Index ended its Monday session at 3,070.84 points, down 4.6% compared to the lowest level recorded in January. The US dollar rose by two rubles and the euro by 2.4 rubles.

Russian stocks have been falling since last week as investors are withdrawing from risky assets, Head of the Analysis Department at Bank St. Petersburg Andrei Kadulin said. According to him, as long as market jitters are prevalent, the ruble is unlikely to get much stronger.

Panic has overtaken the oil market as well. Brent crude experienced a $12 decline to $56 per barrel since the epidemic broke out. Market participants are wary that there will be a slump in demand because first, China is a major oil consumer and second, many countries have suspended flights to China. If the coronavirus situation is not taken under control soon, oil prices may fall to $53-54 per barrel, Promsvyazbank Chief Analyst Ekaterina Krylova noted.

These developments encourage investors to turn to safety tools, Rosbank Chief Analyst Evgeny Koshelev says. There is demand for US Treasury bonds and the sovereign debt of EU countries, as well as for the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Japan sends warship to guard major oil route

Japan has sent its Takanami destroyer, which has been tasked with ensuring the unhindered movement of oil tankers along the Iranian coast. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has stated that the crewmembers’ mission is to collect intelligence. As Tokyo seeks to play the mediator between Washington and Tehran, it refrained from joining an operation that the US and its closest allies are carrying out in the region. Experts say that Tokyo’s main goal is to prove its status as a naval power, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

According to plans, the warship’s mission will last four months, after which another destroyer ship will replace it. Tokyo will rotate the ships three times a year. The destroyer can use military force only if the country’s trade vessels come under attack and will stay away from areas where military activities may begin.

Tokyo has been walking a tightrope between Iran and the US. On the one hand, Japan would like to demonstrate support for US President Donald Trump but on the other hand, it doesn’t want to be involved in a major conflict with Iran.

"From Japan’s standpoint, it is important to show its naval flag to the world. It seeks to establish itself as an influential global power capable of acting not only along its coast in accordance with the US-Japan security treaty, but overseas as well," emphasized Valery Kistanov, who heads the Center for Japanese Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

"This is just the first step. Others will follow, particularly because the United States demands Japan take on more responsibility for its own security," the expert said. At the same time, Japan wants to be a mediator between the US and Iran. "Such a stance is typical for Tokyo because even though Japan is a G7 member, it is an Asian country. This is why Japan wants to be a bridge connecting the East and the West," the expert pointed out.

Kommersant: Russia may limit surgical mask exports

The risk that Russia will face a shortage of surgical masks amid the ongoing coronavirus epidemic is raising alarm bells with officials. In order to prevent this, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is considering the possibility of curbing the export of face masks, Kommersant wrote, citing sources in the pharmaceutical market. Meanwhile, the newspaper’s source in a major drugstore network pointed out that foreign buyers - particularly those in China and Thailand - kept requesting surgical masks.

DSM Group General Director Sergei Shulyak says that the annual production of surgical masks depends on the market’s anticipated needs. Making more masks than the market is expected to require may turn out to be cost-ineffective. According to Shulyak, a temporary ban on mask exports will help meet domestic needs.

The outbreak of the coronavirus has led to a surge in demand for antiviral drugs and surgical masks in Russia. Their sales have skyrocketed by 80% since mid-January.

Marketing Director of the 36.6 drugstore network Evgenia Lamina points out that surgical mask manufacturers were not ready for such a situation. "They are running out of their stockpiles and we can see mask prices starting to grow," she noted. According to a Kommersant source, some manufacturers have raised wholesale prices of surgical masks nearly eightfold, but nevertheless, masks are still hard to find.

PNC Pharma Development Director Nikolai Bespalov emphasized that overhyped domestic demand for face masks would offset any potential losses that businesses could face due to the export ban.

According to him, mask sales will depend on the speed of the virus spread in Russia and the media coverage of the issue. “If the situation does not deteriorate, then the hype will fade in about two weeks but if not, demand may remain high for a month or more,” the expert said.