Top stories in the Russian press on Thursday, April 23, prepared by TASS

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Turkey gearing up for airstrike on Libya

Libyan National Army (LNA) Spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari has accused Turkey of plotting an air operation in Libya, noting that Ankara, which supports the opposite conflicting side — the Government of National Accord led by Fayez al-Sarraj — was taking advantage of the January 12 ceasefire.

According to the LNA spokesman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan capitalized on this truce, gaining the opportunity to transport weapons, and thus, Ankara switched to the second stage of its plan — the attack on Tarhuna, controlled by the LNA. Meanwhile, the LNA is not admitting its military setbacks but says instead that the Turkish plans are doomed to failure.

Senior Lecturer at the Political Science Department of the Higher School of Economics Grigory Lukyanov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the LNA’s statement signals that during the holy month of Ramadan, Ankara could step up its activity and attack. According to him, the Erdogan regime seeks to establish a reliable air channel between Turkey and Libya bypassing the EU’s Irini operation in order to ensure supplies for the GNA’s forces. "For this goal, it should win superiority in the air," the expert noted. "Since December, the LNA has had superiority in the air with mixed success. It’s important for Tripoli to offset it. It has been unable to do this through the current forces of Operation Volcano of Anger. Haftar’s forces think the Turks could intervene. This is the only power capable of undermining the LNA’s positions in the air."

Meanwhile, the expert voiced doubt over Turkey’s plans to carry out an air campaign. "This operation requires either the creation of a military base on the ground in Libya or an air base in direct proximity with Libyan territory," Lukyanov said. For example, Turkey could use the territory of Algeria or Tunisia, but they are not ready to provide this opportunity to Turkey, the expert said, explaining this by strong anti-Turkish rhetoric in the Arab world.

Izvestia: Israel’s Jordan Valley annexation plan to derail peace talks with Palestinians

The annexation of the Jordan Valley would eliminate the last chance for peace talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians, Ambassador of the State of Palestine to Russia Abdel Hafiz Nofal told Izvestia. Meanwhile, the Netanyahu administration told the paper that the annexation of these territories would be the key goal of the newly formed government and could begin this July.

On Monday, Israel’s worst political crisis that had lasted for a year and a half finally came to an end. The leaders of the right-wing and left-wing blocs, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, agreed on creating the National Unity Government. The current head of government will be the prime minister for another year and a half and will then hand this post over to Gantz to become his deputy. Experts share the view that the new coalition government of Netanyahu and Gantz won’t last for long but would act as a life-saver for the prime minister to avoid trial.

The actual annexation of Palestinian territory could begin in two or three months, the paper says. Israel is not planning any military operation or talks with the Palestinians, adviser to the prime minister Ariel Bulstein explained. "We will just apply our sovereignty to these territories exactly the way we did in 1981 with the Golan Heights. These lands will simply become part of Israel de jure, and they have this status now de facto, and we are already controlling this territory."

Meanwhile, the Palestinian ambassador to Moscow told the paper that his administration rejected the so-called "deal of the century" and appealed to the United Nations and the international community to exert influence on Israel to prevent the annexation.

"Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has asked President Vladimir Putin, the UN and the Quartet of mediators to sway Israel to prevent the annexation of Palestinian soil. The Israelis’ steps would be the last nail in the coffin of a peaceful settlement," the ambassador emphasized.

Media: Russia seeks to extend leverage through 200-million-euro loan for Moldova

Moscow is placing great importance on cooperation with Moldova this year. This autumn, the republic is due to hold its presidential election and Russia expects that the incumbent head of state Igor Dodon will win. Thus, Moscow would like to contribute to his re-election, Kommersant business daily writes. Moldova has signed an agreement to receive a 200-million-euro loan from Russia, which should be ratified by the Moldovan parliament on Thursday. During the coronavirus pandemic, this money could help Dodon defeat his pro-Western opponents, the paper says.

Dodon stressed that Moldova would receive this loan under an agreement that he reached in December 2019 with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He said this was the first financial assistance that his country would receive from its partners during the current crisis.

Meanwhile, the loan has split the ruling coalition consisting of the Socialists and the Democrats, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The Democratic Party has criticized the terms of the deal, Director of the Chisinau Center for Strategic Studies and Political Consulting Politicon Anatol Tsaranu explained. In particular, the document says that Transnistria’s gas debt to the tune of nearly $7 bln should be considered as Moldova’s state debt.

Besides, the deal also says that Moldovan economic agents’ debts to Russian banks should be recognized as the state debt. The opposition in the parliament said it would not vote for this loan and the Democratic Party’s MPs have not backed the deal either. In his turn, Dodon has threatened to declare early parliamentary polls, in which the Democrats have no chances of entering the new legislature. "But the opposition has this chance. It is not ruled out that they could back the president’s initiative on early parliamentary polls. Then, Dodon will have to agree on creating a new coalition with the Socialists and right-wing pro-European parties," the Moldovan expert said.

Izvestia: Average oil price unlikely to plunge below $30, market gurus say

Experts from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics have presented four scenarios of how oil price plunges would affect federal budget revenues in 2020. According to their study, analyzed by Izvestia, with the oil price down to $30, Russia will lose 2.5 trillion rubles ($33.1 bln), but with the price at $20 and $10, that will result in nearly 3 trillion rubles ($40 bln) and 4.7 trillion rubles ($62.4 bln) losses, respectively. Even if the price hits rock bottom at $1, the Russian budget will be short of just 2 trln rubles ($26 bln), and this could be compensated by a ruble devaluation.

In the mid-term prospect, Russia’s oil could even dive to zero, but the average annual price of below $30 is very unlikely, the experts said.

The authors emphasized that these estimates were based on the ruble rate of 78 per dollar that Russia’s Central Bank would support by foreign currency interventions. Should the regulator fail to interfere, the Russian currency will weaken to 90 rubles per dollar. This would somehow ease the lack of budget funds, which would be estimated at 3.4 trln rubles ($45 bln) by the end of the year.

Senior Lecturer at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Alla Chalova notes that the oil price at $10 per barrel was quite likely, but certainly, this would not be for long. If the oil price fell to $1, this would weaken the ruble to 110 rubles per dollar and reduce oil revenues to the budget by 2 trln rubles ($26 bln). This would be compensated by the collapse of the national currency, the expert explained. "The government could significantly reduce its losses by a ruble devaluation, but it will happen at the cost of declining living standards of citizens," Chalova noted.

The Russian government could safeguard budget revenues from the falling oil price like Mexico, which buys put options (a stock market instrument, which gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specified price) and then the price per barrel won’t be that important, analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Company Valery Emelyanov said.

Kommersant: Vietnam comes up with unique model of beating coronavirus pandemic

Vietnamese authorities on Wednesday eased their strict quarantine, which had been introduced in major cities and provinces since April 1 to prevent the coronavirus spread. The measures of social distancing enabled Vietnam, which is home to 95 mln people and borders on China, to skirt the epidemic. The country has confirmed 268 cases, with 222 recoveries and no deaths. Vietnam, which does not possess any means of massive tests, has chosen a low-budget model of combating COVID-19, relying on isolating the hotbeds of the infection and active preventive measures. This model has proven to be effective, Kommersant business daily writes.

The National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control announced on Wednesday that over the past six days not a single case of the infection was registered in the country. Given this positive trend over the past week, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc could start easing its quarantine in 12 major cities and regions. The anti-coronavirus measures in the country could be fully lifted by April 30.

Amid the reports on the growing spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Southeast Asia, namely in the region’s major economic powers such as Singapore and Indonesia, Vietnam, which has one of the lowest revenues per capita, managed to get off with one of the smallest numbers of cases. Vietnam’s know-how was the development of a concept on "classifying risks." Under this concept, the country’s 63 provinces were divided into several regions — with high, moderate and low levels of the coronavirus threat. Social-distancing measures were introduced depending on the classification of provinces.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese citizens say that an important success factor was the leading role of the Communist Party, which has called on people to unite and view the fight against the pandemic as a battle with an external enemy.