Top stories from the Russian press on Friday, June 2nd, prepared by TASS

Izvestia: Moscow offers support to Minsk to counter sanctions

Russia will not cease its support of Belarus to counter EU sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 1 during a forum of both countries’ regions. For his part, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko warned his colleague about Western plans to stake a claim on the human and material resources of the Union State. In response to these unfriendly steps, Moscow and Minsk aim to strengthen economic cooperation and develop integration processes in Eurasia, Izvestia reported. Namely, the Russian leader announced that the countries are actively working on unifying their tax and customs legislation. Additionally, Russia and Belarus are implementing a number of joint innovative projects in such spheres as IT, geological exploration, energy, genome and medical research.

"We support and we will continue to support our Belarusian friends in countering the sanctions recently introduced by the European Union. We think that the ban on the delivery of certain goods from Belarus to the EU harms business interests and affects regular people: this is what those who commit such actions must think about, regular people, namely in the European countries themselves," Putin said during the forum.

"When the Belarusians or us are being bullied, we try to stick up for each other," First Deputy Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs Svetlana Zhurova told Izvestia. "This is the Union State, we have a lot of mutual ties. And unlike Ukraine, we consider ourselves brotherly nations and cooperate in projects beneficial to our countries."

The Forum of Russian and Belarusian Regions is important to the development of economic cooperation, planning of new joint events and creation of additional jobs, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian integration and Relations with Compatriots Viktor Vodolatsky told the paper. This concerns different spheres, namely the processing industry and the production of agricultural equipment. According to the lawmaker, it is important that Russia and Belarus produce their own products, rather than fill up shelves with goods provided by the states who introduced sanctions against both states.

Vedomosti: China scaling up its nuclear capabilities

China is building 119 additional silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles, The Washington Post reported, citing the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. According to the newspaper, the new objects are currently under construction in China’s Gansu province. These silos are likely to be meant for the new Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile, known as the DF-41, which can carry several warheads, and cover nearly 15,000 km. However, large-scale construction does not mean that China would acquire over 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles, as some of the silos may turn out to be fake, an expert quizzed by Vedomosti points out.

Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive and European Studies at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin told Vedomosti that China has been actively increasing its nuclear arsenals since the 2010s. Recently, this process has been sped up, as China was able to create new missiles, and now the country, unlike the UK and France, is producing "the whole spectrum of delivering nuclear weapons: intercontinental ballistic missiles, intermediate-range missiles, missiles on submarines and bombers."

According to Kashin, by the early 2030s, China is on track to become the third-largest nuclear power along with Russia and China. According to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the US and Russia can have up to 700 strategic weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, with nuclear warheads. So far, all attempts by Washington to involve Beijing in the dialogue on strategic stability have been futile, as China is simply not interested in such talks. The expert is confident that the majority of new silos are fake, and less than half of the silos will be occupied by missiles, likely about 10-20%. He also pointed out that the DF-41 missiles were developed specifically as a weapon that can reach the US mainland. Their deployment is a cause for concern in the Pentagon, however, the US is unable to take any real measures in response, the commentator concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Turkey aims to protect Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from Afghan radicals

Tajikistan is an important partner of Turkey in Central Asia, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on July 1 during a visit to Dushanbe, where he held a meeting with his Tajik colleague Sherali Mirzo to discuss military-technical cooperation between both states, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports. Similar issues were discussed in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

In return, Ankara is asking Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to recognize the Gulen movement, an organization set up by activist Fethullah Gulen and known in Turkey as FETO, as a terrorist organization, and to hand over FETO supporters hiding on the territory of friendly states to Turkey.

Out of all countries in the region, only Turkmenistan remains outside of Turkey’s influence so far, however, in the fall, it is set to join the International Organization of Turkic Culture (TURKSOY). "Turkmenistan is ready to join the Organization of Turkic Culture if it received a special status that is not specified within this structure, however," President of the Institute of the Middle East Yevgeny Satanovsky told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. It is curious that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan all lobbied for Turkmenistan to join TURKSOY, the expert added.

According to Satanovsky, the decision of regional states is understandable. The Americans are leaving Afghanistan, creating a major hotspot near Russia and China. The Taliban is establishing power over the country’s territory. According to US reports, the Taliban, which was supposed to be destroyed a long time ago, suddenly recovered and is now controlling over 80% of Afghan territory, mainly involved in hostilities in the northern part of the country on the border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Afghan military flee to Central Asian states to save their lives, which causes concern in Dushanbe, Tashkent and Ashgabat.

According to Dmitry Orlov, director general at Strategy East-West LLC, a Kyrgyz Analytical Center, "Turkey is playing the long game; however, Erdogan’s lifetime may not be enough." "In order to become a regional player, Erdogan needed to follow two conditions: enter the game in such a way that no one realizes it, and play the game in such a way that no one understands it. Erdogan did not adhere to any of these conditions. He is acting too blatantly right now, which means that there is a serious force behind him. It is likely to be Britain," Orlov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He noted that Erdogan will use the differences between the US, China and Russia, but not to his advantage, as the Turkish leader has no power or the necessary influence for such games, which means that there is someone influential standing behind him.

Kommersant: OPEC+ ready to increase production

The OPEC+ states were unable to fit in the standard timeline of the July 1 summit to formulate the bloc’s policy on global oil supply for the next six months. Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a compromise, according to which OPEC+ would have raised production to 2 mln barrels per day, however, this decision was not approved due to objections from other states. The summit will continue on Friday. According to experts interviewed by Kommersant, Russia needs to scale up production to ensure the stability of fuel market during the vacation period.

The OPEC+ states are discussing scaling up production due to an expected rise in demand for oil in the second half of the year by 5 mln barrels per day. This time, the development of a unified OPEC+ stance took longer than usual: the session of the monitoring committee on the deal was postponed by a day from June 30, and then the session was postponed by another couple of hours. Those in favor of a reserved approach to increasing quotas pointed to risks of new COVID-19 lockdowns and the possible lifting of sanctions against Iran, which would allow it to increase oil production. Russia attempted to convince Saudi Arabia, which needs higher oil prices, to ease the quotas for the summer period in Russia, considering the pressing issue of fuel prices.

If production is increased by 2 mln barrels per day, and if the quotas are distributed proportionally, by January 2022, Russia will be able to reach the pre-crisis level of production at about 11 mln barrels per day, Daria Kozlova, an expert with Vygon Consulting, told Kommersant.

If this happens, the overall production volume for 2021 may reach over 520 mln tonnes, which is a little higher that the initial agreements of April 2020. According to her, such a decision would be logical as well: "OPEC+ needs to provide additional volumes to avoid overheating and deficit in some regions. In Russia in particular, refining volumes need to be scaled up before the traditional vacation season," the expert concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Gas prices likely to remain high until Nord Stream 2 is launched

The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline seems to have received market support: while Gazprom is supplying gas to Europe at a record rate, Europe is facing a lack of gas at its storage facilities, and the prices are hitting record highs. The US, Qatari or even Russian LNG is unable to salvage the situation, as tankers are still delivering it to Asia, where prices are higher. Gazprom suggests that only the launch of Nord Stream 2 can change the situation, if its construction is concluded in the fall, experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, out of 66 bln cubic meters of gas from underground storage facilities used during the 2020/2021 fall-winter period, only 18 bln cubic meters were recovered by late June, that is, only a quarter, Gazprom informed on Thursday. Earlier, the company stated that the low storage level caused the rise of gas prices on the European market. On Thursday, the price of gas in the EU surpassed $400 per 1,000 cubic meters for seven days running, the highest figures recorded in the past 13 years.

Director General of the Institute of National Energy Sergey Pravosudov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the current situation was caused by increased consumption of gas, which rose faster than predicted both in Europe and in Asia. "Russia and Norway are expanding their deliveries, but they can’t do that continually. Since the start of the year, Gazprom reached such levels of export to Europe that if it maintains them, it may set another record by the end of the year, supplying about 200 bln cubic meters," he said.

However, Gazprom is in no hurry to scale up export until Nord Stream 2 is launched, Sergey Kaufman, an analyst with the Finam company, told the paper. "The only opportunity to significantly increase export now is to book additional transit capacities through Ukraine, but this is a more expensive route to Europe, and additional capacities are 20% more expensive. In this situation, Gazprom would benefit more from waiting for Nord Stream 2 to be launched, and so far, profiting from rising oil and gas prices," the expert said.

"It is very likely that after the first line of Nord Stream 2 is launched, Gazprom will be more eager to fulfil the additional requests of consumers, and will load the Ukrainian gas transit system more actively," leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov told the paper.