On January 10, Russian-American negotiations on security guarantees will take place in Geneva. Event planners claim that everything is ready for the delegations from Moscow and Washington to arrive. Small wonder, as the city has already hosted various negotiations on the most pressing issues the world is facing today. The only exception was perhaps the badly managed meeting of Russian and US presidents in June last year, when American journalists actually prevented Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden from starting negotiations normally. We hope this time all the mistakes have been taken into account to let the talks be normal.
Just before the Geneva consultations, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had an interview with RIA Novosti and criticized Washington and NATO's approach to negotiations on security guarantees for Russia. According to him, the United States keeps insisting on unilateral concessions from Moscow, choosing speculation rather than constructive proposals. As Ryabkov stated, such an approach cannot become the blueprint for either any agreements or even a productive discussion on security guarantees.
In particular, the diplomat stressed that in the upcoming negotiations he would insist on NATO's refusal to expand to the east and deploy weapons next to the Russian borders. "Unfortunately, we have been hearing all kinds of speculations about what Russia must do and what steps it must take. We have repeatedly reacted to such statements - at all levels - and there can be no basis for any agreement, let alone a productive discussion," he said.
At the same time, Ryabkov admitted that the Russian side may once again face US and NATO unwillingness to substantially perceive Russia's demands. However, despite constant pressure and threats against Moscow, Russia won't make any concessions, Ryabkov emphasized, adding that no other negotiation tactics meets our country's security interests.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Moscow requires legally enforceable security guarantees, since NATO has violated the 1990 non-expansion promise five times already. This is exactly what the Russian side will seek in negotiations with the United States and its NATO allies.
Let's recall here that apart from the January 10 Russian-American talks in Geneva, a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council will be held in Brussels on January 12, and the next day Vienna will host security consultations within the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
It should be noted that some western politicians and observers try to present the Russian-American talks in Geneva as Moscow and Washington's desire to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. But in truth, the consultations in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna go far beyond this issue. Indeed, Russia, the United States and NATO will discuss the situation in that country's south-east, but this won't top the agenda though. For Moscow, it is primarily important to get strategic security guarantees from the West. In writing. To this end, mid-December last year saw the Russian side send drafts agreements with the United States on security guarantees and on measures to ensure the security of Russia and NATO member states to Washington and Brussels. It is this document that Moscow intends to discuss with the United States, NATO and the OSCE in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna.
Moscow simply has no backing room, President Putin said at his major press conference on December 23 last year. For this reason, Russia took the field, at the diplomatic front so far. The active phase begins right now, with the first round of security guarantee negotiations with the West. At the same time, the Russian side has repeatedly stressed Moscow "needs a result," and it "will achieve it."
By the way, during a telephone conversation on December 30, 2021 between Putin and Biden, the American president did actually agree with this viewpoint. Moreover, he believes Moscow and Washington "could and should play a key role in the efforts on ensuring peace and security both in Europe and in other places across the globe." Besides, Biden, if you follow the White House's official message released after that conversation, promised Putin not to deploy offensive strike weapons in Ukraine, and also mentioned the inadmissibility of nuclear war. Well, if the American leader said exactly that, this can only be welcomed.
At the same time, according to some Western analysts, the presidents of Russia and the United States have been cornered. Pundits tend to believe that Moscow's proposals are in fact Putin's "ultimatum", which implies a refusal to expand NATO eastwards, the withdrawal of alliance troops from the Baltic States and, most importantly, a promise never to accept Ukraine into NATO. On all the three points, Biden is saying "no." Apparently, with this in mind, US representatives will sit down to talk with Russia. It is also no secret that NATO and the OSCE will not only defer to Washington's opinion, but also fully obey its will.
The only question is whether the contracting parties will come to some kind of compromise. Judging by the White House's statements, the upcoming consultations in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna on January 10 to 13 will be tough and may possibly drag on indefinitely. Which is undesirable and unacceptable, as the Russian leader put it earlier. He said the West could simply drown the talks in words, and this is unacceptable for the Russian side.
However, the fact that Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden will personally monitor negotiation progress inspires some optimism. They also pledged to communicate with each other and give valuable instructions to the negotiating teams if necessary. Presumably, this may eventually lead the Russia-West dialogue to objectionable solutions. There is a hope, at least.
