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In the last few days, US mainstream media have once again reported on presidential ambitions by incumbent national leader Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump for 2024. Pundits believe the upcoming confrontation will be the most violent in the country’s modern history. The key reason is increasingly challenging social contradictions threatening to entail a civil war.
Donald Trump announced his intention to run for president a couple of months ago. On November 16, the ex-president said he would "make America great and beautiful again" and promised to fight like he’d never fought before. As for the current White House head, Biden intends to announce his stand as a presidential candidate in the next two weeks, shortly after his address to Congress set for February 7, The Hill reported recently.
Let’s note right away that there is only one circumstance in favor of Biden's nomination. To date, the US Democratic Party takes pains to provide the voters with another worthy candidate enjoying sufficient national support. Yet, there is Gavin Newsom, 55, from the "Clinton clan" backed by one of the world’s richest oil dynasties, the Getty family. California’s current governor was once even called a "new Kennedy."
However, the state's failed fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has made its popularity decline. Besides, the White House was annoyed by Newsom's presidential ambitions he expressed prior to the midterm elections, according to Politico. He had to publicly back off and make no statements regarding the 2024 elections. Still, Newsom may be prepared to succeed walking disaster Kamala Harris as Joe Biden’s vice president. A cunning plan may be even to make Newsom replace Biden himself if unable to fulfill his official duties for some reason.
The US Democratic Party also has Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, but their chances of being nominated are miniscule. Despite its progressive wing’s strong posture, the party elite is hardly ready to rely on technocrat critic Warren or open socialist Sanders, who is also a year older than Joe Biden. Yes, the Democrats do have 37-year-old Pete Buttigieg, but his candidacy rather belongs to the party's strategic reserve. An open gay, a retired naval intelligence officer, former mayor of South Bend, and current Transportation Minister, he seems a perfect fit in all respects. Except, perhaps, his age. For this reason, the rise of his career is yet to come, as many believe.
Thus, the Democratic candidate issue remains open, at least formally. This state of affairs does not certainly benefit the "donkeys". According to a joint survey by The Washington Post and ABC News late last year, 56% of Democrats and independent party adherents said they would like to see someone to replace Biden. Among young supporters of the Democratic Party, this viewpoint is even more common – 75%.
Joe Biden’s present-day approval rating has been down to 40% after certain successes in combating inflation and high fuel prices. The scandal with secret documents found in the analytical center and Biden's house in Delaware is all to blame. The basic argument of Biden’s opponents within the party remains the same – his age. In 2024, Joe Biden will be 82, and in case of victory he is going to become the oldest president in US entire history.
Admittedly, the Republicans have a somewhat better and less confusing situation as compared to the Democrats. Apart from Donald Trump, the "elephants" have only one more obvious candidate – governor of Florida Ron DeSantis. In terms of ambition, he is hardly inferior to Trump, and their only difference is that the former is 32 years younger. Having no dubious biographic episodes, he is considered much more negotiable, which is important in the political arena.
By the way, November last year saw a YouGov poll among Republican supporters show that 42% favor the governor of Florida, with 35% supporting Trump. Most party leaders would also prefer DeSantis as the one capable of winning the dispute with Biden if things turn ugly. By the way, billionaire Elon Musk and the family of media tycoon Rupert Murdoch have already spoken out for DeSantis’ candidacy. However, one has to remember that ordinary people, hardly familiar with DeSantis, are ready to vote for Trump again.
However, if the "deep state" does not interfere in the campaign or remove both candidates at the primaries stage over secret document scandals, the over-aged Joe Biden and Donald Trump will most likely lock horns in 2024. The only problem is that, as recent opinion polls show, the current and the former presidents’ anti-rating is 55% and 61% respectively. Also, voters do not want to see either Biden or Trump as the next president of the country. If it comes to their fight for the White House, Joe Biden will win "on points" against Donald Trump, but in a dispute with DeSantis the current president is likely to lose.
For various reasons, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a candidate able to defeat his opponent with a clear margin. The nearest future will show how things unfold as regards the US election campaign. Why won’t we just wait?
