The Russian Il-76 military aircraft shot down by Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod region has provided some valuable insights and exposure of Western military specialists’ direct engagement in combating Russia.
Just a reminder: none of the 74 people on board the downed Il-76, including 65 Ukrainian prisoners, survived. Our military department reported that radars of the Russian Aerospace Forces located the launch of two Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles in Kharkov region’s village of Liptsy. In the first minutes Ukrainian Telegram channels hurried to attribute this "victory" to their country but then figured things out and promptly deleted all the traces of their orgy of enjoyment.
The Russian Defense Ministry referred to the incident as a terrorist attack. The US authorities have not condemned it, creating a sense of utter impunity with Kiev, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov said.
So, it is clear to Russia that its aircraft was shot down by a missile fired from ADMS, and that was not a friendly one. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that findings of an expert study will be revealed in a couple of days to make sure whether it was an American or French-made air defense system that targeted the Ilyushin Il-76. "All fragments that could have caused the [fatal] destruction have been recovered from the scene. They point to the fact that the aircraft was shot down by an air-defense rocket. This incident should be either attributed to [Ukraine’s] poor [Air Defense] training or their incompetence of handling such systems. Most likely the strike was delivered by a US system Patriot system but even more likely by a French-made air-defense system. A clear-cut answer to this issue will be voiced in two-three days," the president said, as quoted by TASS.
What should we note in this regard? Patriot, like other Western air defense systems, is really expensive and the scarcest to Ukraine. As some experts and Telegram channels quite logically point out, those are mainly used to protect Kiev. The AFU has very few of them or the relevant missiles. It would be very expensive to massively use American and European systems against the Russian Aerospace Forces, and they are therefore used to strike at most visible targets, the defeat of which would be a resounding success to Kiev. This very tactic embraces separate Patriot systems operating in a free-hunt mode, constantly changing their location and only turning on their radars at the moment of a salvo. Their goal is both to hit a Russian target and to expeditiously get away, avoiding retaliation fire.
But the main thing is not that Ukraine has shot down a Russian plane with their own prisoners of war, whether it be deliberately or as a result of sloppiness and inconsistency. The main thing is that Ukrainians have had no time to learn operating American or French air defense systems of the kind. So, it is a fair assumption to say that the system that killed our plane was controlled by either Americans or Frenchmen. In the latter case this may be deemed as France's response to the recent pinpoint strike in Kharkov, which annihilated a sizable group of French mercenaries. Meanwhile, France Info, a radio network owned by the French national public television France Télévisions, reports that the Il-76 was shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system battery, citing a French military source.
It has already become commonplace that Ukraine's Western partners conduct real-time reconnaissance and target designation in its favor. Russia has repeatedly stated this at the highest level.
And again, the main thing is that the Western military, American or French, hit targets in Russia’s historical territories, as they put it themselves, not the newly acquired ones. The Ukrainian side is reported to have been well aware of the way and route Ukrainian prisoners of war would be brought for exchange. As stated by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian side knew about the transportation and swap due on the January 24 afternoon at the Kolotilovka checkpoint. Moreover, one may hardly assume that Kiev had no interest in that exchange. Defense Ministry spokesman Andrei Yusov confirmed on radio that a prisoner exchange was being prepared that day.
It is hard to escape a firm conclusion that the Western military see no need to coordinate action with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, choosing to act as they see fit, even contrary to Kiev’s national interests.
Interestingly, this is not the first Western challenge to Russia of the kind, as they don’t believe we will strike a NATO country for fear of the alliance’s Article 5 stipulating that an attack on one member is an attack on all of them. So, we are dealing with a crustal-clear test of how far Russia is ready go in its response.
In the meantime, the United States is verifying data about AFU’s use of American weapons to destroy the Il-76 aircraft with the Russian Defense Ministry. This was stated at a briefing by Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh. Yet earlier, deputy head of the State Department’s press service Vedant Patel said the United States was in no way involved in the crash. But why then verify anything?
