The recent contentious exchange between the United States and Ukraine may affect peace prospects, as Europe hurriedly supports Kiev in the wake of the Trump-Zelensky clash. Meanwhile, an analysis revealed $7.5 million in USAID spending on the victory project for Moldova’s Maia Sandu. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia.

Vedomosti: How US-Ukraine combative exchange may affect peace prospects

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky may return to dialogue with US President Donald Trump when he is ready for peace, the US leader told reporters at the Oval Office after the two clashed on Friday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed, too, that there is no effective alternative to bringing Russia to the negotiating table other than dialogue as he criticized the EU’s plan to keep the war going as "not a very realistic": "I can tell you what one foreign minister told me, and <…> that is that the war goes on for another year and at that point Russia will feel so weakened that they’ll beg for peace." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later told CBS that Zelensky had to "come in and sign this economic agreement, <…> and he chose to blow that."

It is too early to say that Trump chose to completely distance himself from taking part in the Ukraine conflict, even as he may as well lose interest for it, Andrey Kortunov, research director of the Russian International Affairs Council, surmised referring to Trump’s refusal to negotiate a resource deal with Ukraine. However, it would hardly be possible to put an end to the Ukraine conflict without the United States, the expert added.

The New York Times (NYT) reported on February 28 that the flow of US weapons to Ukraine has nearly ceased.

The Europeans cannot fully make up for the loss of the US as a major weapons donor, for Europe simply lacks certain weapon systems that Washington has been supplying to Ukraine. Even if Europe takes responsibility for support of the Ukrainian economy, it can last between six to 18 months, Kortunov argues.

Meanwhile, Trump will not succeed in reaching a peace agreement with Moscow on conditions of a ceasefire only, with Russia insisting that the wider conflict with the West be resolved thoroughly and definitively. And the amount of weapons Kiev has amassed in Joe Biden’s era may last for another six months, Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, agrees.

According to Suslov, ending the Ukraine conflict as soon as possible has been a priority with the Trump administration, so any reversal on that would inflict reputational risks on the US president. At that, Russia would certainly benefit from the situation when Moscow becomes a constructive partner for Washington in resolving the Ukraine crisis, the expert concluded.

Vedomosti: Whether Europe could support Ukraine after Zelensky-Trump clash

On March 2, London hosted a summit of 14 high representatives of NATO and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, who arrived in the British capital immediately after his Washington meeting with US President Donald Trump crashed on February 28. Amid this background, quite bleak for the Europeans, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed his "unwavering support for Ukraine" to Zelensky. London is committed to finding "a path forward to a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security." Also, London announced an almost $3 billion loan to Ukraine for 30 years to enhance Kiev’s defense capabilities that will be repaid using revenues from frozen Russian assets.

On March 6, the EU leaders will hold another emergency meeting on Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron told La Tribune on Saturday that the summit will be aimed at "offering more support for Ukraine and mandating the European Commission to launch a large-scale general financing project as our security is at stake," saying that the Europeans may allocate "hundreds of billions of euros" to Ukraine. Alexander Kamkin, an associate professor at the Financial University, told Vedomosti one should differentiate between hundreds of billions of euros that would be channeled into the general European security architecture and 5 to 6 billion euros, or even less, that Ukraine could receive.

According to Kamkin, European budget funding for Ukraine will not last through the end of 2025, and the Europeans will have to increase inflation and attract massive foreign borrowings to keep up their support for Kiev. However, the EU will try to support Ukraine as long as possible, playing into Trump’s hands, for the weaker Europe is, the simpler it would be to push it under his interests, the expert suggests.

The Europeans may supply Ukraine’s armed forces for longer, but the question is whether they will not anger their electorate, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor of international relations at the Russian State University for the Humanities, told Vedomosti. European leaders would persuade the US against cutting off support for Kiev. Instead, Britain and the EU could make concessions to the Trump administration, say, by buying more US oil and gas. Confrontation with Russia is an ideology that Europe has refused to compromise on, he added.

Trukhachev views NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and even Czech President Petr Pavel as key European negotiators with Trump rather than France’s Macron or Friedrich Merz, if the latter is ever appointed new German chancellor.

Izvestia: USAID spent $7.5 mln on Sandu victory project in 2024

Ahead of last year’s presidential election in Moldova and referendum on the country’s accession to the EU, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) donated $7.5 million to support Maia Sandu, Moldovan politician Bogdan Tirdea told Izvestia, citing an analysis.

According to him, the USAID has been sponsoring Sandu’s party since 2016 when it gave it $11.9 million, and the US funding has been steadily growing since the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) came to power.

The US agency mostly sponsored the former Soviet republic through non-governmental and non-profit organizations, of which there are 17,000 in the country, with a third of those receiving overseas funding. The analysis shows that the bulk of all funds was spent on the campaign to hold a referendum on Moldova’s EU accession, initiated by Sandu.

In 2025, Moldova should hold a parliamentary election. Moldova is a parliamentary republic, so in legislative terms, such an election will be crucial. And the current parliament’s mandate expires on July 11. "Voting in the republic can take place next fall - in September or October, and preparations for that will begin as early as in June," Tirdea said.

Former Moldovan President Igor Dodon said the country could possibly hold an early presidential election after a parliamentary vote. According to him, forming another government "that will feature no representatives of Sandu’s party" could be discussed by the end of the summer.

Moldovan society has been increasingly dissatisfied with the incumbent government, and the PAS’ approval ratings have been declining. This year’s first opinion poll conducted by iData showed that a mere 27.2% of voters will be ready to vote for the ruling party at the coming election, a drop from 29.8% in December. Now that USAID funding has been cut off, the ruling party may lose significant ground, Nicole Bodisteanu, an analyst at HSE, told Izvestia. "We are approaching the election in a very interesting and unprecedented situation for the ruling party," she explained.

Izvestia: Russia could lower import duties if sanctions are lifted

The Russian Industry and Trade Ministry would be ready to reduce import duties on foreign-made cosmetics and cleaning products if unfriendly economies lift their sanctions on Russian exporters, the ministry told Izvestia. However, overall, individual decisions will be made on brands. On the contrary, the State Duma has proposed increasing import duties on products from those manufacturers who have exited Russia if they ever come back.

Sanctions in the financial and technological spheres have hurt Russian exporters the most, Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), said in an interview with Izvestia. He primarily pointed to the switching of Russian companies and lenders from the SWIFT system, which he said was very convenient for foreign trade settlements. True, Russia has developed an alternative system within a short period of time, but using that is still associated with certain difficulties, he noted. The restrictions imposed by Russia’s foreign partners on access to EU and US technology and innovation were painful, too.

"Of course, it would be important for our exporters to return to foreign settlement options and technological solutions," the expert said. "However, one should keep in mind that our market has somehow developed without foreign brands, and maintaining that result is important," he added.

"Back a few years ago, foreign brands rushed to leave the country, and now they are considering a return to Russia. In these circumstances, our task is to <…> protect domestic firms which have so far won shelf positions," Dmitry Gusev, deputy head of the Just Russia faction, told the newspaper. "Should foreign brands choose to work here on more favorable terms economically, we would suggest they localize their production, with Russian firms owning a 51% stake in such production sites," he argued.

The decision on imposing barriers should be carefully considered and "hit the right target," said Kirill Baranov, adviser to A2 law firm. According to him, avoiding additional hurdles for our businesses and consumers is crucial, as the proportion of imports in manufactured products and goods sold on the Russian market remains significant.

Kommersant: Russian, US software developers may become friends

The Russian Economic Development Ministry has been collecting bids from potential participants in the GovTech forum in Washington. The event, in which no Russian companies have taken part over the past two years, will take place in late May. The organizers are currently evaluating potential participants.

The ministry has been tasked with selecting Russian participants, it told Kommersant. When asked if Russian businesses would establish cooperation with the US public sector, the ministry said that it would be open to collaboration if other countries are interested in Russian products.

"Promoting Russian IT solutions in foreign markets has been a priority, and the foundation could take part in the forum via video link," a source at the Russian Foundation for Technological Development (RFTR), told the newspaper.

Entering the US and EU markets may mostly interest those companies which used to run an active business there previously, say, Kaspersky Lab, Alexey Smirnov, director of BaseALT LLC, explained. According to him, Russian software developers have not been invited to similar conferences for over three years already.

"Even as [Russian software] exports have been restricted amid sanctions, the coming event in Washington could help Russian IT companies get orders in new markets, and this opportunity should be seized," Nikolay Komlev, director of the Information and Computer Technologies Industry Association, a lobby group, told Kommersant. According to him, among other developers of technology based on AI and big data, VK, Yandex, and Iva Technologies could take part in the GovTech forum.

However, no Russian IT company has been invited to Washington yet. "As the forum program is still being developed, the organizers are reviewing proposals for potential speakers and themes at the event," Yury Shishov, a senior executive at the Russian Economic Development Ministry, said in a letter seen by Kommersant.

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