An end to US military support could ultimately cause the Ukrainian army to collapse; Europe continues to explore initiatives for Ukraine; and Israel warns of resuming military operations against Hamas. These stories have topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Izvestia: What consequences to US military support halt could mean for Ukrainian army?
The Ukrainian armed forces’ combat capacity will sharply decrease in case Washington ends support to Kiev. Discussions of a radical shift in the United States’ Ukraine policy began after Vladimir Zelensky’s unsuccessful visit to the White House. Apart from ending military supplies, the US may stop the training of Ukrainian troops, Izvestia notes.
In fact, Washington has already taken a number of measures against Kiev. The US Department of State decided to stop support for the repair of Ukraine’s energy grid. Apart from that, the Pentagon chief ordered US Cyber Command to halt all activities against Russia, including offensive cyber operations.
The Ukrainian army’s further capabilities will depend on the level to which the US reduces assistance, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov believes. "The Ukrainian armed forces will not collapse at once but their efficiency will decline sharply. The United States is not just providing weapons to Ukraine. It is also providing intelligence in a real-time manner, coordinating strikes via the Starlink system and satellite networks.
Without this support, Ukrainian air defenses and missile systems will lose precision, while the army command will be deprived of the opportunity to see the full picture of what is happening along the line of combat," the ex-Ukrainian premier pointed out. If the Starlink system is turned off right now and intelligence stops coming in, the Ukrainian army’s collapse will be inevitable, Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor with the Department of Politics and Management at the Higher School of Economics, said.
However, the expert is confident that Washington will continue covert supplies in order to maintain the minimum resilience of the Ukrainian army, but publicly, it will distance itself from Kiev. "The US has plenty of opportunities to make life difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces and the Main Directorate of Intelligence by undermining the sustainability of resistance, which could have unpredictable consequences. Still, the US does not want resistance to collapse. Even despite a public blowup between Kiev and Washington, the United States is not ready to abandon the Ukraine asset because it will indicate a recognition of its own failure, too. No one there will do such a thing," Mironyuk emphasized.
Media: Europe seeking peace efforts for Ukraine
A partial ceasefire in the air and at sea between Russia and Ukraine, as well as a suspension of strikes on energy infrastructure, will allow Ukraine and its allies to understand whether Russian leader Vladimir Putin is ready "to engage in meaningful negotiations about long-term peace," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said, commenting on President Emmanuel Macron's initiative, Vedomosti writes.
Earlier, Macron confirmed that he and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had put forward an idea before US President Donald Trump of a month-long ceasefire in the air and at sea, with the parties to the conflict refraining from attacks on energy facilities. Macron’s initiative suggests that the Europeans are trying to demonstrate some activity in resolving the conflict in Ukraine and find their own place in the process, said Pavel Timofeyev, head of the Section for Regional Issues and Conflicts at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
According to Yulia Semke, leading expert with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, Macron’s plan is an attempt to persuade Trump to support an option that would be the most beneficial for the Europeans, but such a ceasefire could be used for additional arms supplies to Ukraine. Technically, restricting operations in the air is the most difficult aspect, Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, observed. Russian International Affairs Council expert Andrey Frolov, in turn, believes that with continued fighting on the ground, such an initiative could be aimed at reducing Russia’s advantage in airpower, which Moscow would find harmful. A ban on strikes on energy infrastructure looks more promising, Stefanovich went on to say.
Most of Ukraine’s thermal power generation has already been put out of operation and repairs would take a long time. On the other hand, although Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, pipelines, and storage sites don’t lead to strategic consequences, they still distract air defenses, the expert noted. The initiative to freeze the conflict for a month makes it clear that Europe is unable to understand the dynamics that are underway, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. "Europe has found itself in a situation where it will only gradually be able to formulate its key positions, and those will not represent the entire continent but just some European countries," he stressed.
Vedomosti: Israel threatens to resume military operations against Hamas
Military operations in the Gaza Strip will resume in case the Palestinian group Hamas refuses to extend the first phase of a ceasefire agreement and fails to release all Israeli hostages, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late on March 2, a few hours after the first phase of the deal expired. Moreover, he also announced a complete ban on humanitarian aid supplies to war-torn Gaza, Vedomosti reports.
Hamas has rejected Israel’s demands, slamming them as blackmail and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi said in an interview with Al Jazeera that the Palestinian movement would free Israeli hostages only after the Jewish state started the implementation of the second phase of the deal. The Egyptian and Qatari authorities, in turn, blamed Israel for trying to use hunger as a means of coercion.
Israel is using an approach of pressure in order to make Hamas accept its ceasefire terms, Lyudmila Samarskaya, researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, points out. According to her, the Jewish state is not ready to completely leave Gaza and is now looking for ways to stay there and maintain the ability to influence political processes.
The Israeli authorities seek to return all hostages in the first phase of the agreement so that they can resume military actions against Hamas and ultimately drive the Palestinians out of Gaza, which is what US President Donald Trump insists on, Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semenov remarked.
"Clearly, the goals of destroying Hamas and resettling the Palestinian people cannot be achieved without Israel maintaining its presence in Gaza. This is why the Israelis have put forward certain changes to the deal," the expert explained. In Semenov’s opinion, neither Hamas nor Egypt and Qatar as international mediators will agree to Israel’s proposals. Accepting an extension of the first phase of the deal will lead to serious reputational losses, the Middle East expert said. "This is why I don’t rule out a resumption of the war in Gaza," he concluded.
Izvestia: Joint Viking 2025 drill presents risk to Russia
The Joint Viking 2025 drill that kicked off in Norway on March 3 poses a risk to Russia’s northwest, primarily to the entire Northern Fleet, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. Even though the official goal is to practice defensive operations, the exercises also involve offensive elements, namely a landing on the coast at night. As many as 10,000 troops from seven NATO countries are taking part in the training.
According to the official statement, the exercise is aimed at practicing ways to defend against a potential invasion. However, in fact, the training of offensive operations is also expected to be held, which is clear from plans for a landing of troops, Admiral (Ret.) Sergey Avakyants, ex-commander of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, said. "This is in line with the common position of the United States’ European allies," he noted. "It’s a threat to our northern flank, and an explicit challenge to our Northern Fleet and our bases. We need to treat this quite seriously and take the relevant measures. We need to strengthen the Northern Fleet and related ground forces," the admiral specified. "Why hold maneuvers in such a defiant manner in a country that shares a border with us? This is clearly a message, as well as practical preparations," Avakyants concluded.
"I don’t rule out that these activities are aimed at distracting our forces from the special military operation. However, the battle for the Arctic is yet to come. Ten thousand troops is quite a lot, especially because this is the Norwegians’ native region and they have some experience operating in the Arctic. Provocations are possible and we have to be prepared for them," military expert, Captain First Rank (ret.) Vasily Dandykin stressed.
Divisions between the Donald Trump administration and its European allies are unlikely to affect the course of the drill this year, Nikita Lipunov, junior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, observed. "Washington will continue to take part in the exercises. The US is interested in that because this is a way for Washington to pursue its policy of containing Russia and demonstrate its ability to project its power via the northern Atlantic into northern Europe, up to the Russian border. It’s also in the interests of European allies, for whom transatlantic reinforcements are crucial," the analyst explained.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Sanctions on Russian oil unlikely to be lifted after failed US-Ukraine talks
The breakdown of talks between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky leaves Washington with no alternative: if it wants to be a peacemaker, it needs to continue dialogue with Russia. The new White House administration could make a grand gesture by lifting at least some of the sanctions on the Russian oil industry, but it did not materialize; moreover, on February 27, Trump extended last year’s restrictions for another year, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
No one expected Trump to cancel the price cap on Russian oil or lift sanctions on Russian LNG production projects. However, the last blacklists that Joe Biden approved right before the end of his presidential term on January 10, 2025, are driving up oil prices, which is not entirely in Washington's interests.
According to National Energy Security Fund Director Konstantin Simonov, the move to extend old sanctions was politically motivated. The US currently has no plans to change anything. The positive thing is that neither will it rush to introduce new restrictions because this would look odd amid the launch of dialogue between Washington and Moscow, the expert clarified.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the lifting of sanctions is too great a bargaining tool to use without Russia making any real concessions. However, formal sanctions are not so important at this point as their strict observance, Andrianov emphasized. In particular, it’s about the possibility of secondary sanctions against Russia’s trading partners. It seems that the threat of such restrictions is now diminishing.
Still, this does not mean that there won’t be any new sanctions in the near future. Simonov is confident that the European Union will step up its activities as it has chosen to be Ukraine’s strongest backer. The danger is that, spurred by political slogans, the EU may impose sanctions without careful consideration, causing harm not only to Russia but also to Europe, as was the case in 2022. The focus of new restrictions could be on LNG.
A paradoxical situation may arise where US companies will start returning to Russia’s oil and gas industry, while European ones will continue to comply with sanctions. This would undermine the European oil and gas business, providing the Americans with significant competitive advantages.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews
