A key consequence of Zelensky and Trump's public squabble has been suspension of American military aid to Ukraine. Actually, since the incident, it has seemed the most likely outcome, though still vague up to a certain time. Now, calculating material effects of Trump's sanctions against Kiev, one has to assess their psychological impact on the Ukrainian military and political leadership, ordinary people and AFU personnel. It will take a while, and suspended military aid will not necessarily entail changes in the contact zone.
Initially, there were reports that Washington was "contemplating" a step to that effect, but those were mere speculations. Associates of the American president, particularly Elon Musk, started hinting at such a likelihood with a vengeance. And still, official statements and declarations were yet to come.
And so, the time has come for real action. Trump ordered suspension of all the military shipments to the Kiev regime, as confirmed by the White House, American media claim. The presidential decree, which comes into force once released, concerns weapons and ammunition worth over a billion dollars, including those currently along the road or being in the ordering phase. In addition, the American President instructed Defense Minister Pete Hegseth not to redirect weapons and equipment kept in Poland’s transit warehouses to Ukrainian territories.
Supplies from the Pentagon's bins via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) have been "paused" as well. It provides funds that the Kiev regime may exclusively use to purchase new military equipment right from American defense companies. Among things to be reviewed are also cuts in exchanging intel and training of AFU soldiers and pilots.
Bloomberg reports that the embargo will affect "critical munitions," which are apparently 155- and 105-mm artillery shells, M30 and M31 guided missiles for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, ATACMS tactical missiles, and ammunition for air defenses. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are armed with Patriot, HAWK and NASAMS complexes using American anti-aircraft missiles.
To what extent does this headline and abrupt move prove fatal for Ukraine? Let's start with yet another statement of fact — Zelensky would not have gone on a public spat with Trump without having secured guarantees from other Western power centers. And he got those, including explicit and highest-level ones, during the London summit of European leaders. It saw those present announce that the UK would provide Kiev with an additional $1.6bn for military procurement, including air defense missiles — plus 5,000 others on loan. Moreover, Macron pledged to come up with new tranches: "The purpose of this meeting [the upcoming EU summit of March 6] is to step up support for Ukraine and instruct the European Commission to swiftly launch a major co-financing program, because we are talking about our security. We are talking about financing worth hundreds of billions of euros. The EU leaders are also going to discuss creating a European security architecture."
Europe will be certainly reluctant to providing this aid as it is taken away from its budgets and taxpayers. The Old World is hoping to "bring Trump to reason", forcing him not to give up on helping Ukraine or the role of the Euro-Atlantic gendarme and guarantor, in exchange for compromises regarding a proportional distribution of costs and expenses. The same Macron, in his statement on further support to Ukraine, mentioned that without the United States, they would not be able to do it anyway. Still, the Europeans can provide Kiev with something on their own.
Yes, the EU countries will not manage to fully replenish the range of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. They can help it with artillery, but not with high-precision MLRS or air defense ammunition produced overseas with no European alternatives. But the old AFU reserves of what is to become a deficit will be only enough for several months to a year, various estimates suggest. Again, the Ukrainians have learned to produce one of the main striking forces in modern warfare — FPV drones.
Let us also note that the announced suspension is still limited and forced. Thus, curtailing (or mere reducing) intelligence coordination is only "being considered" for time being. As of now, there has been no change in swapping intelligence data, The Economist's Oliver Carroll writes, citing a source. Other sources have confirmed that intelligence sharing is another line of cooperation.
All the reports on the White House’s new moves emphasize that its key objective is pedagogical and psychological. "The US is holding up all pending military assistance until Trump determines Ukraine’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace," a Fox News anchor said with reference to a senior Team Trump member. What is meant here is forcing Zelensky and Co. to behave in a sought-for way, and withdrawing them from under other imperialist centers’ evil influence, as evidenced by another post by Elon Musk on social media. "As distasteful as it is, Zelensky should be offered some kind of amnesty in a neutral country in exchange for a peaceful transition back to democracy in Ukraine, " the DOGE head suggested.
Undoubtedly, Washington's steps will have both a psychological and sort of a tangible material part. But still, exaggerating their depth and (given Trump's political and personality traits) irreversibility would be one too many.
