Europe is seeking ways to support Ukraine without Washington; a new insurrection in Syria could lead to another long-term conflict; and uncertainty regarding the Iran nuclear deal carries a risk of uncontrollable escalation. These stories have topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Europe searching for ways to support Ukraine without Washington
Washington’s decision to suspend military assistance to the Ukrainian army has prompted European capitals to intensify their efforts to support Kiev. Paris and London plan to transfer the income from Russia’s illegally frozen assets to Ukraine. Meanwhile, members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance reportedly aim to form a group to provide the Ukrainian military with intelligence without Washington, Izvestia writes.
Alexey Zhuravlyov, first deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) Committee on Defense, sees the European authorities' actions regarding Moscow’s assets as a sign of a financial crisis in the West. In his opinion, European banks have tarnished their reputation and now, neither China, nor India nor the Gulf countries will seek their services as "they can no longer guarantee the safety of assets."
Moreover, London is contemplating the creation of a "four eyes" group within the Five Eyes intelligence alliance comprising the US, the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, which would make it possible to share intelligence without Washington, the Daily Mail writes. The United Kingdom has always relied on human intelligence, while the US has powerful technical tools for surveillance and analysis, said Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Russian Presidential Council on Inter-Ethnic Relations. "Without US satellite and electronic intelligence, the British won’t be able to fill in all the gaps in data on the situation on the frontline. London will try to make the most of its resources, but without Washington, the efficiency of intelligence will decline," the expert pointed out.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports, citing the Financial Times, that Europe is also rushing to provide Ukraine with an alternative to the Starlink satellite network. Four major European satellite operators are reportedly in discussions with EU institutions on creating a backup communications channel for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Fox News does not rule out that Washington and Kiev may resume full-fledged intelligence sharing in the coming days. "The US is not cutting Ukraine off from the Starlink satellite system because it won’t benefit Trump," Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert, remarked. "His team, as well as the West in general, does not want the Ukraine front to collapse and Russia to win, claiming more Ukrainian territories. In such a case, a minerals deal between Washington and Kiev would not be as profitable as the White House expects it to be at this point. This is why intense fighting continues," he noted.
Vedomosti: Insurrection in Syria could lead to another long-term bloodshed
Armed clashes between former service members of ex-Syrian President Bashar Assad’s army and the supporters of the country’s new government broke out in the provinces of Latakia and Tartus on March 6. Members of the Alawite minority (the followers of Alawism, a syncretic teaching that came to be seen as a branch of Shiism in the 1970s), who mostly live in these two regions, made up about 15% of Syria’s 22.5 million population at the start of the civil war in 2011. They also were the backbone of the Assad army’s officer corps, Vedomosti notes.
The government forces recaptured most of the territories seized by the rebels by the morning of March 8, the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates the number of those killed at 1,000, with most of them being civilians. According to the organization, the clashes have led to the highest civilian death toll in such a short period since the civil war started in 2011. Meanwhile, a Vedomosti source that previously worked in the country says that the number of those killed could be significantly higher.
Tehran, which used to assist the Assad government, has not yet provided an official reaction to the developments in Syria, while the Lebanon-based movement Hezbollah, an Iran ally, hastened to deny any involvement in the uprising in Syria’s coastal provinces. With Assad gone from power, Iran won’t be able to take a position in the current confrontation between the government and the rebels, Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, observed.
The Alawite uprising, which had been in the works for a while, was triggered by mass violence against the minority by pro-government armed groups, said Nikolay Sukhov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. According to him, although the number of groups under the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham umbrella has dropped from 25 to 5, Damascus still does not fully control their activity. Radicals see the Alawites as heretics who, unlike the Christians and the Jews, are unworthy of being protected by the state. In such a situation, clashes in northwestern Syria could make the civil war resume with renewed vigor, the analyst remarked. Now, the Syrian Kurds, who control the country's northeast, will not agree to lay down their arms and integrate into the state unless they receive clear security guarantees. The Druze in the country’s south are most likely to take a similar stance, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Uncertainty regarding Iran nuclear deal carries risk of uncontrolled escalation
The inability of the parties concerned to make agreements and their disregard for diplomacy is what poses a real threat to nuclear non-proliferation and not Iran’s uranium enrichment activity, Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said in an interview with Izvestia.
According to him, Iran has indeed increased the production of uranium enriched up to 60%, but such a rise in stocks is not critical because manufacturing activities remain under the constant control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). "We believe that it’s not uranium enrichment that poses a threat to nuclear non-proliferation but the failure of the main parties concerned to find common ground and move from ‘megaphone’ diplomacy to real diplomacy," Ulyanov stated.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for Tehran’s nuclear program remains the foundation for new talks on an Iran nuclear deal, Ulyanov went on to say. If necessary, the interested parties would be able to make a revised agreement, he pointed out. The Russian envoy noted that cooperation between Tehran and the IAEA was first and foremost stalled by the position of Western countries who had pushed an anti-Iran resolution in November 2024, undermining the previously achieved agreements.
Ulyanov stressed that the JCPOA remained "partially dismantled." Besides, it’s going to expire on October 18, 2025. "There is no replacement for it at this point. This is why, now, the talk will be about a modified accord, as long as the interested nations agree on the need to develop such a document. However, the JCPOA still is the starting point for further negotiations," the diplomat emphasized.
Ulyanov believes that the current uncertainty regarding the JCPOA carries the risk of uncontrolled escalation. "That said, we see the return of the key players to the negotiating table as the best way forward. To do so, it’s crucial for the new US administration to make its approaches clear and show readiness to take part in a negotiation process," the Russian envoy concluded.
Izvestia: Oil market faces increase in output, tariff-driven instability
The OPEC+ group last week made a decision to raise production for the first time since 2022. The initial slight growth of 138,000 barrels per day looks modest compared to the 5.85 million barrels per day decrease in oil output that the group and the associated countries have ensured in the past few years. Still, this is an important step to balance the market. And more importantly, the rise in production is taking place amid significant global economic instability caused by the mass introduction of import tariffs, Izvestia notes.
According to Ivan Timonin, project manager at the Implementa company, a major drop in oil prices looks unlikely. The reason is because there is a potential for greater demand on the global market. "We expect that consumption will rise by about 1.5 million barrels per day this year compared to 2024.
Developing countries and those aligned with Russia, such as China and Southeast Asian nations, will account for half of the increase. The Middle East and Africa will also play a part," the expert explained. In his opinion, all this should be enough "to absorb" the increased supply by both OPEC+ countries and the United States. Besides, the group’s members have made it clear that they could reconsider their plans based on the market situation, the analyst added. That said, no price shocks should be expected in the near future as the rates are likely to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel.
However, Marsel Salikhov, president of the Institute of Energy and Finance, has pointed to the risk of further decline in oil prices due to the start of tariff wars.
Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, stock market expert at BCS World of Investment, emphasizes that oil price trends depend on various factors, many of which are hard to predict. "This is primarily about geopolitics: for instance, the pressure of sanctions on Iran could grow. Second, there is the factor of the US strategic reserve. When oil prices are too low for US producers, the country’s authorities may decide to fill the strategic reserve," the expert explained.
Kommersant: Cryptocurrency prices hit multi-month lows
US President Donald Trump’s promises to create the country’s cryptocurrency reserve have failed to meet investors’ expectations, making the prices of a number of popular cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin, drop to the lowest levels in months, Kommersant reports.
Investors were disappointed by the fact that the reserves are expected to be formed from the seized crypto assets that the US government already holds, which means no purchases on the open market. Besides, the new US administration has still put forward no innovative ideas on the development of the crypto industry.
According to Tehnobit Director General Alexander Peresichan, the market "has no reason to wait for additional capital to come in to support cryptocurrency prices and tip the scales in favor of certain asset deficits, which would cause their prices to grow." According to Andrey Podolyan, an analyst at the Cryptorg exchange, "the 200,000 bitcoins (seized by the US) account for about 1% of the total supply, but this is not the favorable news that retail investors were waiting for."
Peresichan explains that "so far, the Trump administration has only been making vague statements about a desire to create a global crypto hub in the United States, but the questions of how the government plans to achieve that goal and how it seeks to support crypto companies remain unanswered." Moreover, market participants are wary that the government may tighten regulations on the crypto market.
In addition, the economic factors behind the current weakness on the market of these risky assets are still there. According to Neomarkets Chief Analyst Oleg Kalmanovich, high inflation is the main reason as it causes "a pause in the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, making crypto assets less attractive." According to the analyst, the crypto market could perk up "as the Federal Reserve holds its meeting in May or June, where it is expected to start the rate-cutting cycle."
However, experts are optimistic about the market’s prospects. Podolyan believes that the creation of a strategic reserve of crypto assets in the US "would have a positive impact in the long term." Kalmanovich notes that once the growth rate of consumer prices begins to decline and Federal Reserve officials announce an end to the pause in rate cuts, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will get "a good fundamental reason for growth."
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