Russia-US could resume negotiations on issues of strategic stability; Russia reaffirmed its conditions for starting peace talks with Ukraine; and the Bank of Russia submitted a proposal to create an experimental legal regime for cryptocurrencies. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Vedomosti: Prospects for achieving Russia-US strategic stability

The defining political development of early 2025 was Donald Trump’s comeback to the White House. Almost immediately, he set about pursuing key domestic and foreign policy commitments made during his campaign, including establishing dialogue with Russia. While the US president has devoted considerable attention to the Ukrainian conflict, he has also emphasized the broader potential for normalizing US-Russia relations. In particular, Trump has repeatedly referenced the possibility of reaching an agreement with Moscow on issues of strategic stability. Vedomosti interviewed experts in the field of strategic stability to evaluate the probability of US-Russian negotiations on this matter in 2025.

According to Alexander Ermakov, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), the Ukrainian crisis remains at the forefront of US-Russia relations. In his view, no significant agreements on strategic stability should be expected until the conflict is resolved.

Oleg Krivolapov, Senior Researcher at the Arbatov Institute for US and Canadian Studies, argues that the prospects for initiating discussions on strategic stability before the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis will largely depend on Russia’s assessment of US intentions - specifically, whether the current American administration has abandoned its objective of inflicting a strategic setback on Russia.

Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, noted that previous US efforts to compartmentalize strategic stability discussions were dismissed by Moscow, as Russia has insisted on a broader settlement in bilateral relations. "Ukraine is just one component. It appears that the new US administration has proposed discussions covering the entire spectrum of our relations, which suggests that substantial talks on strategic matters could also take place. Thus, negotiations in 2025 are a possibility," he stated.

However, Krivolapov remains skeptical that the US Senate would ratify any new arms control treaty. "This suggests that Russia and the United States will likely need to explore agreements that do not require ratification. Without a formal treaty, a return to mechanisms such as inspection regimes is improbable," he explained.

According to Stefanovich, the first step would require a political endorsement from both presidents signaling a willingness to negotiate. Following this, discussions could be delegated to deputy foreign ministers, leading to the establishment of specialized negotiation tracks with interdepartmental working groups. "I would not expect a full-scale treaty before February 2026. However, there is a shared understanding among experts on both sides regarding the value of unilateral political commitments to remain within the limits set by the 2010 New START Treaty until a new agreement is reached," he concluded.

Izvestia: Russia maintains its preconditions for settlement in Ukraine

The fundamental demands for initiating peace talks with Ukraine remain unchanged for Russia - these include the full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, along with an official declaration renouncing NATO membership, a source familiar with the situation told Izvestia. Rodion Miroshnik, Russian Foreign Ministry's Ambassador-at-Large on the crimes committed by the Kiev regime, also confirmed that Moscow’s stance on the settlement process has not altered.

In the near future, Russia and the United States are set to engage in dialogue on Ukraine. A phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is anticipated, alongside contacts between US Presidential Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and the Russian side.

"Our position remains fundamentally the same, as there have been no specific proposals for a resolution presented to us. So far, all the activity has been taking place on the other side of the conflict. How exactly the United States intends to reclaim debts from the Zelensky regime is of little concern to us," Miroshnik told Izvestia.

Washington’s proposals remain unrealistic. For Kiev, a ceasefire could prove politically disastrous for the Zelensky administration, argues Dmitry Novikov, Associate Professor and Head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics at the Higher School of Economics. "They are attempting to destabilize the situation. Without clear commitments from the United States - such as a definitive stance on Ukraine’s NATO membership or specific demilitarization parameters - the proposed 30-day truce lacks substance," he told the newspaper.

"If the US demonstrates that the peace process is irreversible - not merely a pause to regroup Ukrainian forces but a genuine step toward a final resolution - then I believe our leadership could accept it," he added.

While Kiev resists a truce, it is compelled to engage in diplomatic maneuvering under US pressure. The resumption of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine effectively makes Washington a direct party to the conflict, according to Vladimir Brovkin, American historian and former professor at Harvard University.

Russia remains firm on securing the territorial status quo and Ukraine’s neutrality, whereas the Jeddah agreements merely propose a temporary suspension without substantive guarantees. Meanwhile, Moscow’s recent military successes, including in the Kursk region, further diminish its incentive to offer concessions, Novikov concluded.

Izvestia: Germany eyes expanding militarization along NATO’s strategic objectives

Germany has been designated as NATO’s principal logistical corridor for large-scale deployments of military equipment and personnel to the east, the Russian Embassy in Germany told Izvestia. According to reports in the German media, the alliance also plans to extend Germany’s pipeline network to Poland and the Czech Republic to ensure a steady fuel supply for its troops. These developments are unfolding against the backdrop of declining US engagement in European security affairs. At the same time, Friedrich Merz, expected to become Germany’s next chancellor, has announced plans to allocate around 500 mln euro to defense over the next decade. Experts told Izvestia reconciling this strategy with the opposition from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will present a significant obstacle for the new government.

Berlin has embarked on a path of accelerated militarization, reshaping its economy, society, and public consciousness to align with NATO’s strategic objectives. As a result, Germany is evolving into a key NATO bastion for operations near Russia, the Russian Embassy in Germany told Izvestia.

"Within the alliance’s military strategy, Germany has been assigned the role of the primary logistical corridor. A corresponding national roadmap has already been adopted. Additionally, NATO’s military and command infrastructure is becoming increasingly entrenched on German territory, including in its eastern regions," embassy representatives noted.

According to the embassy, German authorities have also emphasized a comprehensive upgrade of transportation infrastructure to facilitate the large-scale movement of NATO forces eastward. As one of NATO’s largest logistical hubs for the US military, Germany is central to the alliance’s broader strategy of streamlining military supply chains with both its eastern and western neighbors, Artem Sokolov, research fellow at the Center for European Studies at MGIMO told Izvestia.

"The objective is to further streamline the potential deployment of equipment and supplies from Western Europe to a prospective Eastern European theater of operations," Sokolov noted.

Vedomosti: Bank of Russia opens door for individual investors to buy cryptocurrency

The Bank of Russia has put forward a proposal to establish an experimental legal regime for a three-year period, allowing a limited group of Russian investors to engage in cryptocurrency transactions. According to Vedomosti, market reactions differ, with some experts viewing the initiative as impractical.

Only individuals classified by the regulator as "highly qualified investors" will be permitted to participate in transactions under this initiative. This designation will be granted to those with investments in securities and deposits exceeding 100 mln rubles ($1.14 mln) or annual income surpassing 50 mln rubles ($573,715). Additionally, qualified legal entities will be eligible to join the experiment, with the Bank of Russia setting further conditions for financial institutions interested in cryptocurrency investments in the future.

Since the regulator does not recognize cryptocurrencies as a legitimate means of payment, it has proposed the simultaneous introduction of a ban on crypto transactions between residents outside the legal regime, along with penalties for noncompliance.

While the financial sector acknowledges the importance of regulating cryptocurrency investments, it is equally critical to ensure that participation is feasible, Dmitry Lesnov from Finam told Vedomosti. In his view, the current proposal appears excessively restrictive. He cites Belarus as an example, where participation in crypto asset trading is subject to far fewer restrictions.

"Otherwise, we risk having a functioning framework only in principle, which would merely drive investors toward foreign crypto exchanges - or worse, into the hands of fraudsters masquerading as legitimate crypto projects and existing only for fraudulent transactions," Lesnov said.

At the same time, Finam acknowledges the Central Bank’s concerns, particularly regarding the prevalence of scams in the crypto market and the need to protect retail investors from significant risks.

The Bank of Russia is cautiously advancing toward a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency regulation, Stanislav Akulinkin, head of the Digital Technologies and Systems working group at the Federal Agency for State Property Management public council. If a transparent mechanism for cryptocurrency transactions in rubles is established, Russian businesses could gain access to the decentralized finance (DeFi) market, he explained.

 Kommersant: Gazprom prepares to issue bonds in Chinese yuan

Gazprom is set to enter the yuan-denominated bond market, marking a significant milestone for this relatively niche segment with a limited number of issuers, Kommersant writes. The energy giant’s subsidiary initially planned to issue bonds by the end of the week, starting with a placement of "at least 100 million CNY." However, experts suggest that the company has the potential to attract as much as 3-4 bln CNY. Gazprom’s entry into this market is a noteworthy event for the debt sector, as the issuance of such securities over the past 2.5 years has been confined to a small group of participants.

According to Alexey Tretyakov, CEO of Aricapital Management Company, Gazprom could already secure a placement of 2 bln CNY with an annual yield of 10.5%. However, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company Artyom Privalov takes a more optimistic view, predicting that the final issuance could reach 3-4 bln CNY, with a coupon rate of approximately 8.5% per annum.

A source within the debt market told Kommersant that Gazprom representatives expressed interest in issuing foreign currency bonds during a recent investor meeting. According to the newspaper, the decision to issue yuan-denominated bonds appears strategically sound, particularly given that China has emerged as one of Gazprom’s primary sales markets following restrictions on Russian gas exports to Europe.

At the end of 2024, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller estimated that annual gas deliveries to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline had reached 31 bln cubic meters. Vladimir Vasilenko, debt market analyst at Renaissance Capital, suggested that the proceeds from the bond issuance could be used to fund Gazprom’s ongoing operations.

However, Kommersant's source within the debt market noted that the issuance is unlikely to take place this week. Another industry insider noted that while "the placement remains a possibility, the timeline is so uncertain that it might as well be considered canceled." Gazprom has yet to make an official announcement regarding the issuance of yuan bonds, leading market participants to speculate that any eventual placement may occur through a private subscription.

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