Russia remains ready for any outcomes in relations with the US; the EU has become the main obstacle to resolving the Ukraine conflict; and Washington seeks to apply pressure on Iran by attacking the Houthis. These stories have topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Russia prepared for any developments in relations with US
Russia will make every effort to strengthen the current positive trends in relations with the United States, Federation Council (upper house of parliament) Deputy Chairman Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. Experts believe that discussions between Moscow and Washington of security guarantees for Russia should be the next step in consultations on a ceasefire in Ukraine.
The new White House administration has brought significant changes in US approaches to dialogue with Russia. Moscow is positive about Washington’s desire to resolve the crisis. Still, Russia’s optimism remains cautious. "Unfortunately, it is too early to make long-term predictions. Only time will tell where things go. We certainly will do our best to reinforce the current trends.
But we will respond if the other party starts pivoting in a direction unfavorable for Russia," Kosachev emphasized. Maintaining dialogue definitely requires efforts by both parties, and these efforts are being made. Russia did not create the international problems of the recent years, so it’s those who triggered them - that is, the West - that should put forward initiatives to solve them, the Russian senator observed.
Even though the peace settlement process has begun, the parties still are not "speaking the same language" in terms of assessing the situation in Ukraine. As the next step, Moscow and Washington should hold a specific conversation on the guarantees that will be provided to Russia before a ceasefire in Ukraine takes effect, as well as on its terms, Higher School of Economics analyst Tigran Meloyan pointed out.
"The US strategy may develop in two ways. First, Washington shows readiness for dialogue on a number of issues and US officials take them to Zelensky with an option for Kiev to find it worth accepting these conditions. The second possibility is that Trump will find bargaining with Moscow to be out of place here. In such a case, we may face a situation where attempts will be made to put pressure on Russia by threats of tighter sanctions, primarily through secondary restrictions on Russia's partner countries, as well as by continued military operations," the expert noted.
It is the European Union that could benefit from persistent tensions between the US and Russia, Meloyan went on to say. The EU, together with the United Kingdom, will do everything to make Kiev reject peace initiatives based on Moscow’s terms, which may slow down the Russia-US negotiation process and affect Ukraine’s ability to make agreements.
Izvestia: EU becomes primary obstacle to resolving Ukraine conflict
European countries have turned into the primary obstacle to peace in Ukraine. As Moscow and Washington are intensifying communication on the issue, the EU has embarked on a path of active military buildup, an official at Russia’s permanent mission to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) told Izvestia. Moscow has opposed the deployment of European troops to Ukraine, but the EU is working on a plan to send its military contingent there under the guise of a "peacekeeping" mission.
While the United States is publicly insisting on achieving peace as soon as possible, the EU keeps talking about the need to increase weapons supplies to Kiev and make sure its negotiating position is reinforced based on the "peace through strength" idea, Maxim Buyakevich, Russia’s deputy representative to the OSCE Permanent Council, pointed out.
As an active negotiation process continues between Russia, the US and Ukraine, European Union countries are becoming the main obstacle preventing a peaceful solution to the conflict. "The analysis of public statements by the leaders of the EU and a number of European nations makes it possible to say that the EU is impeding efforts to achieve long-term peace. They are creating major obstacles because their goal is to militarize the European Union," Moscow State Institute of International Relations Professor Yelena Ponomaryova elaborated.
After the Trump administration came to power in the US, Washington dramatically shifted the priorities and specific aspects of its foreign policy, Valdai Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov emphasized. "No such transformation has yet taken place in the EU, where the same people are in power as three years ago. This is why Europe continues to pursue the same policy towards Russia," the analyst explained.
According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, Europe still believes that a geopolitical defeat of Russia is possible. "The reasons why the Europeans are behaving this way are the following: after two political upheavals, Ukraine is seen as the West’s prize; for Europe, acquiring it means a geopolitical victory over Russia, and the EU will be unwilling to lose it under any circumstances," Rahr observed. "Militarization efforts allow the EU’s ruling progressive elites to remain in power. The governments can get into astronomical debts, use domestic suppression and bans, and abuse democracy as long as they justify it all by citing the need to enhance defense against ‘aggressive Russia’," the expert concluded.
Media: US aims to exert pressure on Iran by targeting Houthis
The United States has resumed military actions against the Yemeni Houthis in a potential attempt to exert pressure on Iran as part of nuclear deal negotiations. According to media reports, the Houthis believe they have the right to carry out counterattacks on US military bases. Experts interviewed by Izvestia say that the situation in Gaza is one of the reasons behind the current round of tensions.
"The situation is clearly related to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has made Sana’a reinstate its ban on the movement of Israeli ships and cargo. This was the direct cause of the US strikes," Sergey Serebrov, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, said. Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov agrees that the Houthis have intensified their activities because of the situation in the Gaza Strip. "Since they are currently the most combat-ready force in the Axis of Resistance, it’s no surprise that US efforts are aimed at weakening pressure on international shipping, including with regard to Israel," the expert remarked.
According to Serebrov, the goal of US strikes is to continue the war in Yemen. "No issues have been resolved there as a military solution is impossible. Back in 2017, the Trump administration carried out an operation against terrorists from Al-Qaeda (outlawed in Russia - Izvestia) in the Al Bayda province, which claimed the lives of 30 civilians; and now, the US is attacking the Houthis, who are Al-Qaeda’s enemy," the expert said. In his view, the Americans will eventually try to get Saudi Arabia into the game after the country announced the goal of ending the conflict in Yemen in 2022.
The recent developments in Yemen are also related to diplomatic discussions of the Iran nuclear deal. The US move to demonstrate military strength can be seen as a continuation of the policy of maximum pressure on Iran that Trump proclaimed after returning to the White House. "External pressure is coming from the US and Europe. One of the conditions for the resumption of the deal that Washington has put forward is for Iran to abandon support for the Axis of Resistance, of which the Houthis are part," Tsukanov pointed out.
"In fact, Donald Trump continues to be committed to Joe Biden’s policy in many areas, especially in terms of resolving the situation in the Middle East and supporting Israel," Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Besides, the media effect is important for the current US president as it makes a difference for him what image he will have in the media. This is why he is flexing his geopolitical muscle, demonstrating determination as the supreme commander-in-chief of the world’s only superpower. This actually looks logical and consistent in Trump’s frame of reference, where the audience’s attention is the main asset and capital," the expert stressed.
Media: Mass demonstration puts Serbian government to test
The largest protest against Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic took place in the country’s capital of Belgrade on March 15. The protest was the culmination of the demonstrations that have been going on since November 2024, sparked by the death of 15 people in the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad, only five months after it had been reconstructed by Chinese contractors, Vedomosti notes.
Extended protests always have organizing centers, which are in this case close to student communities, usually controlled by western non-profit organizations, said Yekaterina Entina, director of the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics. However, a thing to note is that the real picture from the streets shows that there are two large groups of protesters. The first one, which is not the largest, are students, while the second group consists of people from various socioeconomic classes, which is what has made the demonstrations massive. This second group is definitely not coordinated by any external forces but is driven by general frustration with the country’s societal and economic situation, Entina said.
The analyst expects the protests in Serbia to continue, while their scale will diminish because there are no political leaders. However, if a decision to hold a snap parliamentary election is made instead of forming a new cabinet, which is the most likely scenario, protest activity will acquire a specific political dimension, the expert observed.
"Vucic is only in his second term in office as president but the party has been in power longer - a fact that many Serbs aren’t happy about. Notably, Vucic is the president of the province, small towns and villages. He does not have many supporters in the capital, while the majority of protesters are those with whom he failed to find common ground - townsfolk, young people, students and intellectuals," Oleg Bondarenko, editor-in-chief of the Balkanist.ru website, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
According to the expert, the standards of living have largely improved in Serbia in recent years so many don’t remember what life was like in the past and seek further changes for the better. Right now, the president will hardly use force. Vucic is more likely to try to wait out the problem in hopes that protesters will run out of steam, or he will eventually try to find a shared language with them.
Vedomosti: Experts evaluate drivers behind stronger ruble
The ruble has significantly appreciated since the beginning of the year based on factors such as geopolitical optimism, increased capital inflows to the stock market, and the growing earnings of exporters. However, experts believe that the strengthening trend is temporary and the rate will return to the 100 rubles per dollar level, Vedomosti reports.
Analysts from T-Investment, Sovcombank’s Expert RA, Finam, Tsifra Broker, and BCS see geopolitical optimism as one of the main forces behind the strengthening of the ruble. However, it cannot be viewed as a fundamental factor because it is temporary and depends on the news flow, T-Investment Chief Economist Sofya Donets points out.
Trade wars, a decrease in global oil prices, and the impact of sanctions on Russian exports make the strengthening of the ruble less clear-cut, Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, said. The dynamics of the ruble are currently highly sensitive to news about the process of resolving the Ukraine crisis, she elaborated.
A strengthening ruble benefits importers and ordinary people who can buy imported goods at a lower cost, but it also reduces exporters’ revenues, negatively affecting Russia’s export-oriented stock market, Sovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasilyev emphasized. The companies focused on domestic demand, particularly the consumer sector, are benefiting from a stronger ruble as the prices of imported goods are falling, Natalya Malykh, head of equity research at Finam, noted. She named the national air carrier Aeroflot among the gainers because a strong ruble has increased the affordability of tourist trips abroad.
Still, economists believe that the current ruble exchange rate is too high. According to Donets, if the situation on the commodity market and the oil prices remain what they are today, the range between 95 and 100 rubles per dollar will be suitable. Sinara analysts also expect the ruble to weaken in the medium-term and don’t rule out that the national currency’s volatility will remain elevated in the near future.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews
