Russian and US Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will hold a second official phone call on March 18; European countries forge interest-based coalitions within NATO; and the Russian ruble rises as investors bet on easing geopolitical risks. These stories topped Tuesday’snewspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.

Vedomosti: What terms can Russia and US consider for ceasefire?

Russian and US Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will hold a second official telephone conversation on March 18, which was confirmed by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. When asked what topics the two leaders would discuss, Trump mentioned "land" and "nuclear power plants" and also stressed that he had already talked with Kiev and Moscow about "redistributing certain assets." According to Vedomosti, the leaders of the two countries are trying to maintain regular contacts.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said earlier that achieving lasting peace in Ukraine would be possible only through forming strong security guarantees for Moscow from the US and NATO, and an immediate part of these guarantees should be Ukraine's neutral status - the commitment of countries to reject its NATO membership.

Both Trump himself and members of his administration have repeatedly emphasized the lack of necessity for Kiev to join the alliance, but the current Ukrainian leadership, represented by Foreign Minister Andrey Sybiga, has declared that joining NATO remains a top objective.

Only mutual agreements and formats can be implemented, military expert and founder of the Military Russia portal Dmitry Kornev told Vedomosti. He explained that defining observer formats usually begins only after reaching a consensus on the initial conditions of a potential agreement. According to the expert, a designated observer for compliance with the ceasefire terms could be an international organization or a third country, such as China or India.

Trump has one main non-negotiable factor in the dialogue with Russia on the Ukrainian conflict - time, director of the Center for North American Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Victoria Zhuravleva told the newspaper.

According to her, the US president needs to achieve results in this area as soon as possible in order to "sell" them to the American electorate before the mid-term elections in November 2026. Therefore, when Trump talks about improving bilateral relations with Russia, today he is primarily hoping for a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. "As soon as he believes that his diplomatic efforts are not producing results, he may try to abandon the entire process and blame everyone, including Russia," the expert stressed.

Izvestia: The West builds new alliances within NATO

The European Union will not collectively decide to deploy troops to Ukraine, the European Commission told Izvestia. However, during a meeting with newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that both nations intend to support Kiev specifically as peacekeeping powers. Just a day earlier, the French leader made it clear that he does not require Russia’s approval to send forces into Ukraine. Experts suggest that the growing involvement of Kiev’s allies in managing the conflict reflects not only NATO’s internal divisions but also the emergence of new military partnerships within the alliance.

Moscow, meanwhile, remains steadfast in its position that the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine - regardless of whether they operate under the EU’s authority or NATO’s own framework - is categorically unacceptable.

While it is too early to speak of a new transatlantic alliance, tensions between the United States and its European partners have led to the formation of sub-blocs and coalitions based on shared interests within NATO, professor at Moscow State University’s Faculty of World Politics Alexey Fenenko told Izvestia. "There are already Franco-British and British-Polish military agreements, and the establishment of a Franco-Canadian cooperation mechanism is entirely plausible," he noted.

Such developments align with the interests of the new US administration, which has openly expressed its desire to shift the responsibility of European security onto the continent itself.

Aware of the risks associated with a direct confrontation with Russia, many European nations remain reluctant to deploy their troops to Ukrainian territory. When Izvestia inquired whether the European Commission would require EU nations to seek authorization from the UN Security Council for peacekeeping operations in Ukraine, the response was notably evasive. According to European Commission representative Anitta Hipper, the decision to send troops rests with individual member states.

Moscow would veto any such initiative in the UN Security Council and should Western nations attempt to push through a peacekeeping mission via the Council, it would likely serve only to reinforce the narrative that "hostile Russia" obstructed their so-called peace efforts, senior lecturer at St. Petersburg State University’s Department of European Studies Alexey Chikhachev told the newspaper.

Vedomosti: Will clashes on Syria-Lebanon border ignite wider conflict?

Since the evening of March 16, cross-border shelling has persisted along the Lebanese-Syrian border in the vicinity of Syria’s Homs province, pitting the armed forces of the current Syrian regime against both the Lebanese army and units of the Shiite movement Hezbollah. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the ongoing hostilities have resulted in eight fatalities - four of whom were Syrians - as well as at least 13 wounded. Experts told Vedomosti that the flare-up was likely unintentional.

The confrontation is believed to have been triggered by the abduction of three Syrian Defense Ministry personnel on the Lebanese-Syrian border on March 16, followed by their execution in Lebanon, the official Syrian news agency SANA reported, citing a statement from the defense ministry. Damascus has squarely placed the blame on Hezbollah for the incident and has vowed countermeasures against the group. Hezbollah, for its part, has issued a statement denying any involvement in military engagements with Syrian security forces.

Hezbollah currently appears unable to extend support to opponents of Syria’s present government, senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Nikolay Sukhov told Vedomosti. Engaging in full-scale hostilities against the Syrian military would require a force of at least 20,000 well-equipped and highly trained fighters - resources Hezbollah lacks in the aftermath of its recent war with Israel. Moreover, Sukhov noted, Israel has crippled key border crossings and bridges.

The volatile border region between Syria and Lebanon has likely experienced an unintentional escalation, given its inherently high conflict potential, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Bocharov told the newspaper. In his assessment, neither side is actively seeking war: Hezbollah has yet to recover from its recent confrontation with Israel and is unlikely to initiate major military operations, while Syria’s leadership remains focused on other security priorities. Bocharov also dismissed speculation about Iran’s involvement in the crisis, asserting that Tehran has most likely "written off" Syria, having recognized the improbability of restoring Bashar al-Assad’s rule.

Kommersant: Ruble strengthens as investors bet on easing geopolitical risks

The exchange rate of the yuan on the Moscow Exchange dropped below 11.5 rubles for the first time since June 2024. The over-the-counter dollar rate also reached a multi-month low, settling below 83.5 rubles. The Russian currency is supported by expectations for a reduction in geopolitical risks amid ongoing discussions between Russia and the United States, as well as a seasonally higher supply of currency by exporters, Kommersant writes. Additionally, a decrease in country risks and high ruble rates attract speculative capital from allied nations to ruble assets.

"Although the fundamental factor (trade account surplus - Kommersant) appears stable, it is unlikely to have driven such a development on its own," head of the analytical service department at Zenith Bank Vladimir Evstafiev told the newspaper. On Friday, March 14, the Bank of Russia reported that the country's trade balance surplus in January-February 2025 amounted to $18.5 bln, which is 15.6% higher than the same period in 2024.

The strengthening of the ruble is also supported by the increasing interest of foreign investors in ruble assets, as indicated by observations of market participants and data from the Bank of Russia. "So far, this is less an interest in directly making transactions, although there are already friendly investors who can and are ready to buy, and more an interest in infrastructure in the new circumstances," Managing Director for Client Relations at Renaissance Capital Andrey Smirnov told Kommersant. At the same time, the Bank of Russia data indicate a significant rise in OFZ bond purchases by non-residents, who bought government securities for almost 43 bln rubles ($515.25 mln) at the February auctions of the Finance Ministry, which is three times more than the total volume of securities purchased for all of 2024.

In the coming days, the Russian currency will receive support amid the tax period. Additionally, according to Managing Expert at the PSB Center for Analytics and Expertise Denis Popov, if the positive news trend continues, the yuan exchange rate may stabilize in the range of 11-11.5 rubles, and the dollar exchange rate - in the range of 80-84 rubles.

Izvestia: Russia’s national debt servicing breaks record, sparking calls for key rate cuts

According to a report from the Accounts Chamber, the Russian authorities allocated a record 2.3 trillion rubles ($27.56 bln) last year for servicing the national debt, Izvestia writes. This figure represents a 33% increase in just one year. So far, the national debt in Russia remains below 15% of GDP, which is relatively low compared to other countries, experts agree that there are no immediate risks to financial stability. However, the ongoing sanctions and the shift away from "toxic" foreign currencies have required borrowing from the domestic market by issuing federal loan bonds, which necessitates paying high interest rates due to the elevated key rate of 21%. This represents another plea for the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate to ease pressure on the budget.

As of last year, Russia’s public debt grew by 14%, reaching a total of 29 trillion rubles ($347.52 bln), according to the Accounts Chamber’s report. Currently, government borrowing represents 14.5% of Russia’s GDP. The main driver of this growth is domestic debt. Over the past year, it increased by 14%, totaling 23.7 trillion rubles ($284 bln).

This rise is largely attributed to the high rates on federal loan bonds (OFZs), Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam Olga Belenkaya told Izvestia. A smaller portion of the public debt is denominated in foreign currency, and it declined slightly in dollar terms, dropping to $52 bln, according to the Accounts Chamber’s report.

"The share of Russia’s public debt in GDP is just 15%, which is exceptionally low. When compared to other BRICS, EAEU, and G20 nations, Russia’s public debt ratio is among the lowest," leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova told the newspaper.

However, the sharp rise in the cost of servicing this debt is a cause for concern. It is essential for the government to avoid what is known as a "debt spiral," Elena Voronkova from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics warned.

This year, the situation regarding public debt growth and servicing costs is expected to improve. A gradual reduction in the key interest rate is anticipated, which would enable the Ministry of Finance to issue OFZ bonds at lower interest rates, Izvestia writes.

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