The world’s attention to the telephone conversation between US and Russian Presidents on November 18 was truly enormous. Everyone was certainly waiting for news on settling the conflict in Ukraine. However, the main expected thing was seemingly new evidence of a US foreign policy shift undertaken by the Trump administration. And expectations are being fulfilled.
Assessing the call, US President Donald Trump branded it wonderful. "I think we had a great call, it lasted almost two hours, talked about a lot of things and toward getting it to peace," he told Fox News. American journalists asked Trump to comment on the White House statement following his telephone conversation with Putin on Tuesday, which indicated that both sides were striving to improve relations. "It's true," he said.
Also, he touched upon the economic prospects: "We don't have that much trade, and they'd like to, and we'd like to. They have some very valuable things for us, including very big forms of rare earth," the American leader said. "And on that they have things that we could use, frankly, and they that other people could use."
According to press reports from both the Kremlin and the White House, the two leaders constructively discussed issues of strategic stability, nuclear non-proliferation, and developments in the Middle East. In short, almost the entire range of most pressing international challenges. And, of course, a peaceful settlement for Ukraine.
Thus, Russia has been actively emerging from international isolation and for the first time since 1991forming an extensive agenda for dialogue with the United States on key topics. This is an obvious turn away of the White House from policies pursued by Biden, Obama and Clinton, as well as Trump himself during his first presidency. It was him who initiated the process of freezing bilateral relations with Moscow, imposed sanctions, expelled diplomats, exerted harsh pressure in terms of strategic arms reduction, and started sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. And it was back then that the Russian Resident's demand for dialogue on equal terms was voiced in the severest form as the only way to build constructive relations with Washington.
Now, from under the ruins of bilateral relations, there have been minor shoots of the phenomenon that was called detente in the 1970s. And not only in politics, but in areas more accessible to the general public. Elon Musk has already mentioned cooperation in space, and on Tuesday, the presidents even decided to hold Russia-USA hockey games. All these are obvious parallels with the Soyuz-Apollo space project, hockey battles of Soviet "amateurs" with North American professionals in the early 70s, and "ping-pong diplomacy" by US President Richard Nixon when undertaking friendship with China against the USSR.
In the meantime, let me remind you that the abovementioned detente arose not from the United States’ natural peacefulness, but for quite prosaic reasons — its defeat in the Vietnam war that destroyed America's international reputation, its confrontation with the Arab world over the Middle East crisis that turned into an oil shock for the West, and the shameful resignation of Nixon himself that landed as a shock to the entire American state.
Back then, Washington took only a breather in its confrontation with Moscow. And what about now?
The United States is hardly reconsidering its role internationally. Make America Great Again is a slogan universal for itself and the rest of the world. What is reviewed are the tools for restoring US dominance, increasing its efficiency, and reducing costs. US hegemony must be both provident and economically beneficial. US hegemony must be honored and respected, without photos of its troops’ shameful flight from Saigon or Kabul. And, for sure, hegemony must be fair enough not to leave behind the ruins of states like it was in Libya or Iraq.
In this sense, Ukraine has become the first serious testing ground for new US approaches. Trump wants peace soon. And this entails optimizing project costs, i.e. cutting all types of assistance, exploiting Ukraine's resources secured by the subsoil agreement, and restoring Washington's international peacemaker reputation. However, all of this is scarcely possible without adequate interaction with the Kremlin, while the policy of stepping up pressure on Moscow is simply dangerous, which Trump himself has stated explicitly, pointing to the threat of a nuclear clash.
Everything looks good on paper. Ukraine and Europe, as shown by Putin and Trump’s conversation, are not being particularly consulted in this regard. But what does Moscow want in this situation?
Restoring a normal dialogue with the United States, which includes strategic security, economic exchanges with the West (and the South), coordinating approaches, and overcoming unnecessary competition in world affairs is undoubtedly in Russia's best interests. But not at any cost.
"Confirming his fundamental commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict, the President of Russia expressed willingness to thoroughly work out possible solutions in cooperation with the American partners, aimed at reaching a settlement that would be comprehensive, reliable, and lasting, and, naturally, take into account the essential need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, as well as Russia's legitimate security interests," the Kremlin said in a statement following Putin’s phone call with Trump.
The root causes of the crisis are, first of all, NATO's approach close to Russian borders. So, Moscow demands a neutral status for Ukraine and NATO’s general withdrawal away from Russian borders. This is an existential issue for our country, and it determines configuration of its approaches to cease-fire, truce, or peace negotiations proper.
The United States seems to apprehend this, since Trump has already said "no" to Ukraine's NATO membership, followed by painstaking and mostly concealed diplomatic work, the echoes of which are noticeable, on the one hand, in the Russian President’s consent with the idea of mutually giving up on attacks against energy infrastructure facilities. On the other hand, there are demands for "stopping forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearming the AFU," and further for "a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and intelligence provision to Kiev" as a condition for resolving the conflict. This is primarily the path towards Ukraine's neutrality. Respect for Russia's vital security interests will be the key equality component in a dialogue with Moscow, with all the rest perceived as tactical ploys.
We know nothing about Washington's objections, but the United States intends to proceed with its diplomatic work without delay at the same time.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff told reporters on Tuesday that a new round of talks with the Ukrainian delegation is due in Saudi Arabia next Sunday. He said the US delegation will be led by for National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. "We've got to figure out the details. The point is that up until recently, we really didn't have consensus around these two aspects, the energy and infrastructure ceasefire and the Black Sea moratorium on firing. And today we got to that place, and I think it's a relatively short distance to a full ceasefire from there," he stressed.
Optimistic. But only based on the outcome of the entire negotiation process will it be possible to assess US readiness for sane equal cooperation with Moscow, and the general viability of its bid for new greatness.
