Kiev persists in carrying out attacks as Moscow and Washington shift towards settlement efforts; Israel restarts its ground military operation in Gaza; and the US considers the lifting of sanctions on Russia. These stories have topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Kiev continues attacks as Moscow, Washington move on to settlement efforts
Russia and the US are preparing for another meeting, which may take place in the Saudi city of Jeddah as early as March 23. The key focus will be on the details of a partial ceasefire in Ukraine, Izvestia writes.
US President Donald Trump held a telephone conversation with Vladimir Zelensky on March 19, briefing him on the agreements reached in a call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin earlier. Meanwhile, Kiev targeted a Russian energy facility even though Putin had ordered the Russian army to suspend strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure right after his call with Trump. The Ukrainian attack suggests that Kiev either does not control its own armed forces or intentionally violates agreements.
The situation around the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant also remains tense, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, points out. "Kiev will not allow a scenario where the plant produces energy for anyone but Ukraine, which is what Zelensky himself said. Consequently, attempts to damage power lines, that is, energy infrastructure facilities, cannot be ruled out. Any attack like this can be regarded as a violation of the 30-day partial ceasefire by Ukraine," Meloyan elaborated.
The Kiev authorities can now be expected to initiate any kind of provocation, military expert Viktor Litovkin said. "Zelensky does not need peace because he won’t be able to remain in power once peace is achieved," he noted.
Moreover, fighting on the Russia-Ukraine border in the Kursk and Belgorod regions is likely to continue, experts believe. Ukraine’s incursion attempt into Russia’s Belgorod Region on March 18 was another move by Kiev to undermine the negotiation process, as well as a response to its failures in the Kursk Region, Meloyan emphasized. "It’s possible that this is how the Ukrainian armed forces are trying to distract Russian troops in Kursk, seeking to at least somehow restore their image in the information field and once again seize some Russian territory for negotiation purposes," the analyst explained.
The Kiev authorities will keep trying to disrupt talks between Russia and the US in all possible ways and will not hesitate to carry out any act of provocation. The incursion attempt into the Belgorod Region and the attack on an energy facility in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Region are links in this chain of events, experts conclude.
Izvestia: Israel restarts ground military operation in Gaza Strip
The ground military operation in Gaza, which Israel restarted on March 19, has no specific timeframe. Dmitry Gendelman, advisor to the Israeli premier’s office, confirmed to Izvestia that negotiations with Hamas would now be held without pauses for a ceasefire as the Jewish state seeks to eliminate the Palestinian movement and rescue all hostages.
The Jewish state will make every effort to bring its hostages back, Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson Anna Ukolova told the newspaper. "It’s hard to discuss a timeframe at this point. There are many factors that can impact the process," she stressed.
The Yemen-based Houthis were the only ones who responded with force to Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip. On March 18, the Ansar Allah movement announced a shelling attack on the Jewish state, the first since January. As for Tehran, it limited itself to strongly condemning Israel’s "campaign of genocide" in Gaza and blaming it on Washington. The Lebanon-based Shia movement Hezbollah also expressed support for the Palestinian resistance and the people of Gaza.
The options of the "axis of resistance" are limited at the moment, political scientist and Middle East expert Poland Bidzhamov said. "However, the resolve of the Gazans should not be discounted," he added.
According to the analyst, a full-scale regional war in the Middle East is currently improbable because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s primary objective is not to defeat Iran but to unify the country’s political factions behind him and maintain his grip on power. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the far-right Jewish Power party who resigned as national security minister two months ago in protest of Israel’s deal with Hamas, chose to rejoin the cabinet after the IDF resumed strikes on the Gaza Strip. His return has strengthened the ruling coalition.
"It’s abundantly clear to Netanyahu that attacking Iran will not bring about a regime change there. Even if Israel decides to strike, it will likely target the Houthis rather than Iran. However, such an action would only exacerbate tensions. Still, if a large-scale operation is launched against them, similar to what occurred in Afghanistan, no one can assure its success," the political scientist remarked. In any case, Netanyahu will find it challenging to engage in a two-front conflict, especially given that the Gaza operation is not universally supported by the Israeli public.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: US considers lifting of sanctions on Russia
US President Donald Trump has issued orders that the policy of sanctions be revised so that it no longer undermines the dollar’s role as the main global currency. US officials have not made any statements about the lifting of sanctions but according to the Western media, the Department of State and the Department of the Treasury have been instructed to compile a list of the restrictions that could be removed. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe that the sanctions on Russian banks that prevent them from freely using the dollar will be the first to be lifted. However, analysts warn that negotiations won’t be easy.
The dollar’s dominance among global currencies is the most important economic advantage to the US, which is why the Americans are extremely interested in maintaining it as the primary payment tool on all markets, particularly on the oil market, Yevgeny Kogan, economist and founder of the Bitkogan project, said. "The sanctions that isolate Russian oil producers and the Russian payment system from the dollar are disadvantageous for the US," he observed.
According to Pavel Seleznyov, head of the Department of International Economic Relations at the Financial University under the Russian Government, many big US companies suffered significant losses after leaving Russia but they tacitly maintain contact with Russian businesses, setting the stage for a return to the country. "I think that apart from the world-famous food and catering brands, the US payment systems Visa and Mastercard will be among the first willing to come back because they have a wide range of clients left in Russia, including tourists and those who travel abroad for work," the expert explained.
Still, even the sanctions that are harmful to the dollar will not be lifted by the Americans just like that, without tough political bargaining, political scientist Georgy Bovt warns. "In the long term, Russia’s experience in carrying out payments with partners in national currencies and cryptocurrencies, as well as the BRICS group’s discussion of mutual payment mechanisms, will serve to weaken the dollar’s position. However, the international community still does not have an adequate replacement for the dollar, which is why the US has no reason to rush to lift sanctions," the expert stressed. He believes that no sanctions on Russia will be lifted until progress is achieved in talks on the Ukraine issue.
Meanwhile, even if Russia regains full access to payments in US dollars, the trend for the development of payments in national currencies will persist, Seleznyov said with confidence. "First, mutual payments in national currencies are convenient in many cases. Second, they will remain a backup method because if the Americans have once used the dollar as a weapon, in theory, they could do it again," the analyst concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Red Sea crisis threatens global trade
The Yemen-based Houthis on Wednesday announced their fourth strike on a US aircraft carrier. According to expert estimates, attacks on ships in the Red Sea have caused the most significant disruption in global trade since the coronavirus pandemic, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
The escalation of tensions in the Red Sea immediately affected oil prices, which went up amid Houthi attacks and Israeli strikes on Hamas facilities in the Gaza Strip. Military operations in the Red Sea have led to a diversion of trade flows and a sharp decline in maritime traffic in the region. Many vessels are now traveling along the route via the Cape of Good Hope, taking a longer way from Europe to Asia, which is impacting logistics and vessel insurance prices.
Tensions in the Middle East are a highly negative factor for the global economy. "Up to 60% of global oil is transported by tankers through the Red Sea. Given the likelihood of increased attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the fact that Iran, which supports the Houthis, may close the Strait of Hormuz at any moment, the prices of commodities, primarily oil and gold, will soar pretty quickly," Oleg Abelev, head of analytics at Rikom Trust, said.
"This will trigger a domino effect, with higher transportation prices impacting consumer prices and exacerbating inflation, especially in Europe and Asia," Pavel Sevostyanov, associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, pointed out. As for commodity markets, oil prices may rise further due to risks of supply disruptions and increased demand for fuel required for long ship voyages. The expert does not rule out that the prices of gold, "a safe haven," could also increase.
For Russia, the Red Sea shipping crisis may have varied consequences. "On the one hand, a rise in oil prices will boost Russia’s budget revenues. On the other, logistical challenges in the Red Sea may disrupt supplies to Asia, where Russia has shifted its main export flows. Alternative routes (including the Northern Sea Route and pipelines) mitigate but don’t eliminate the risks because longer delivery times and higher shipping costs diminish the level of profitability. Additionally, a global trade slowdown may reduce energy demand, decreasing revenues from elevated prices. As a result, the conflict is creating volatility in global trade, resulting in a scenario where Russia may gain short-term advantages, but logistics issues will impact all trade participants in the long term," Sevostyanov observed.
Media: Turkish president seeks to strip opposition of right to resistance
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is targeting the camp of his critics. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, one of the most popular opposition politicians, was arrested on March 19 on charges of corruption and conspiracy with terrorist organizations. Imamoglu was considered the best option for a presidential candidate from the Republican People's Party (RPP) in the 2028 election, with the party’s primaries due on March 24, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Grigory Lukyanov, researcher with the Center of Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, points out that Imamoglu’s arrest is part of the country’s political conflict. "The election is still far away but the election campaign in Turkey kicked off almost right after the previous presidential vote was over in 2023," the expert remarked. "Undoubtedly, the Turkish leadership will now face foul play accusations both from the domestic opposition and the opposition forces based abroad," the analyst said. "However, the authorities have the opportunity to counter criticism by relying on public support for their successful fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the apparent achievements in Syria," he added.
Erdogan is wary of an excessive growth in Imamoglu’s popularity, while the president’s rating is rapidly dropping, Ikbal Durre, associate professor at Moscow State Linguistic University’s Department of Foreign Regional Studies, told Vedomosti. The Istanbul mayor had been actively carrying out an election campaign since last week, demanding a snap election, the expert pointed out. "The prosecution will more likely boost Imamoglu’s popularity as he is turning into a martyr in the public’s eyes. Notably, Erdogan himself came to power in a similar situation at the beginning of the century because before becoming popular, he had been arrested many times under various pretexts," Durre added.
Chances are quite real that Imamoglu will be sent to jail, given the gravity of the charges, but a trial could take years, Turkey expert Yashar Niyazbayev observed. In theory, the politician’s arrest will allow Erdogan to strengthen the position of the ruling Justice and Development Party, while the appointment of an external head of Istanbul will also strengthen his control over the key city, Niyazbayev specified. However, on the other hand, this move may spark a prolonged political standoff and lead to pressure from the West.
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