Experts discuss an energy ceasefire ahead of today’s talks between Russia and the United States, and Germany pins its hopes on the US missile plan next year. Meanwhile, protests erupt in Turkey as the Istanbul mayor is detained. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Vedomosti: Experts weigh in on Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire ahead of Moscow-Washington talks
Later on Monday, Saudi Arabia will host another round of US-Russia talks. On Sunday evening, the Americans held negotiations with a Ukrainian delegation, and the latter may stay in the Middle Eastern kingdom for an additional meeting with the US after its talks with Russia, The New York Times and Reuters reported. A ceasefire for energy and other infrastructure can be discussed.
The idea of introducing such a cessation was discussed in the March 18 phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump. After the conversation, Putin ordered the Russian military to unilaterally halt attacks on the Ukrainian energy system for 30 days, a step the White House described as progress toward peace.
Back in June, Ukraine’s Zelensky claimed that up to 80% of thermal power generation and a third of hydro power generation had been damaged. Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian government, suspects Ukraine can exaggerate information on the scale of damage for political and military purposes so that it can receive more Western assistance in the form of equipment, specialists, and air defense systems.
And there are indeed quite a small number of gas, coal, fuel oil, and oil-powered energy facilities left in Ukraine that can be attacked in Ukraine, the expert continued, with Russia refraining from strikes on Ukrainian nuclear power plants lest nuclear incidents occur. "Three years on since hostilities began, nuclear energy actually forms the bulk of Ukrainian power generation," Yushkov estimates.
Today, Ukraine is more vulnerable than Russia in terms of energy security due to the damage and the protection for its power generation, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy Alexander Frolov told Vedomosti. "However, <…> any gesture of goodwill regarding strikes should be reciprocal or at least a halt on attacks should be justified [for Russia]. Based on a purely mathematical approach, even as we underestimate the Ukrainian data, Russia can already stop its attacks, with the bulk of Ukrainian electricity infrastructure already being destroyed," he concluded.
Izvestia: Germany counts on US missile deployment in 2026
Germany still expects the United States to base its long-range missiles next year under an agreement reached between Berlin and Washington in July that is in line with the country’s national security strategy formulated in October 2023, the German embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, neither the new US administration nor Germany’s CDU/CSU or SPD politicians have made an unequivocal comment on the US missile plan. The next German government will hardly prevent the US from stationing its missiles, Gerold Otten, a member of the German Bundestag from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party stated. "The new federal government will fully back earlier decisions," the politician told Izvestia.
Experts agree that the White House’s strategic goals regarding Germany and Europe still lack clarity. "The United States seems to have reduced its NATO commitments, at least judging from Donald Trump’s public statements. However, the new administration’s diplomacy and policies on international trade have been so disordered that we cannot know for sure what the US stance will be in the longer term," Richard Bensel, a professor at Cornell University in New York, told Izvestia.
As the White House has been working with Moscow toward resolving the Ukraine conflict, the Bundestag does not rule out that Washington may look to reverse the previous administration’s decision to deploy missiles in Germany in order not to irritate Russia. "I think Donald Trump will no longer follow the path taken by his predecessor Joe Biden in increasing confrontation with Russia. He [Trump] will choose not to do so because that would harm the US-Russia relationship and strengthen the globalist faction in the EU and Germany, too," Rainer Rothfuss argues.
And Washington may abandon plans to deploy missiles in Germany should the split between the United States and its European allies on security deepen, German political scientist Alexander Rahr says. "I can imagine that the US will even withdraw its [tactical] nuclear missiles from Germany," the expert told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Protests erupt in Turkey in wake of imprisonment of Istanbul mayor
On Sunday, a criminal court in Turkey jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival, on charges of corruption amounting to some $15 billion. Late on Sunday evening, the Turkish Interior Ministry officially removed Imamoglu from his post as mayor of the country’s largest city.
Corruption suspects can be kept in pre-trial detention for up to two years. Imamoglu, 54, was jailed as Turkey headed to polling stations for a primary election in which he was planning to run. Turkish police arrested the politician at his home in the morning of March 19, and a few hours earlier, a university in Istanbul revoked his diploma, preventing him from running for the presidency in 2028.
The news triggered mass protests in Istanbul and other major Turkish cities. As many as 500,000 demonstrators gathered in Istanbul as protests reached their peak on Saturday evening, according to some estimates. The police used pepper spray and tear gas to disperse the crowd.
According to Murad Sadygzade, president of the Center for Middle East Research, the detention of the Istanbul mayor will cause further division among Turkish society and worsen the political crisis. The move will also push Turkey’s political system further toward authoritarianism, the expert continues. He does not even rule out that Erdogan may be ousted if protests spread across Turkish cities. "Erdogan and his Justice and Development (AK) Party will have to make concessions and even perhaps hold an early election that AKP will likely lose amid Erdogan running low in opinion polls and the dire economic situation in his country. However, the authorities may continue to use force to suppress protests," the political analyst added.
The situation in the country will return to normal after Imamoglu is released, and protests will only escalate until that happens, Arif Asalyoglu, general director of the Turkey-based International Institute for the Development of Scientific Cooperation, told Vedomosti. And the authorities would hardly agree to free the opposition politician under pressure from the street, he argued: "The decision to arrest Imamoglu was definitely a mistake on the part of the authorities. And Erdogan himself now finds himself in a zugzwang."
Izvestia: Venezuela working toward joining BRICS
Venezuela has been working to become a BRICS member, the Latin American country’s embassy told Izvestia. Caracas is aware of the grouping’s growing role globally as it attaches much importance to cooperation with the bloc. Venezuelan diplomats can see a major interest, too, in deepening ties with Moscow. And Venezuela is in active talks with the majority of BRICS members. However, prospects of a full-fledged membership are marred by its conflict with Brazil, which holds the rotating BRICS presidency in 2025.
Commenting on its veto on Venezuela’s joining BRICS, Brazil said this is not a matter of disagreement with the political regime in the Bolivarian republic but rather the loss of trust. "We acted in good faith, but we lost confidence in Venezuela," Celso Amorim, an advisor to the Brazilian leader, explained.
Venezuela expressed its outrage over moves by Brazilian diplomats who, Caracas argues, resort to the policy of blockading it.
As regards Venezuela’s potential accession to BRICS, Russia differs with Brazil on that. Moreover, Russia and Venezuela hold similar positions on most issues, and the two countries have maintained quite a high-level cooperation. "The strategic partnership between Russia and Venezuela is developing actively in a wide range of spheres," the Russian embassy in Venezuela stated. "Promising progress has been made in most areas," it added.
"Venezuela maintains quite good relations with many BRICS member countries," Viktor Kheifets, a professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia. According to him, almost everybody in BRICS has recognized the government of Nicolas Maduro. However, Venezuela would need to win back Brazil’s trust to join BRICS, he said. "This country cannot be pressured into changing its decision, and Caracas will need to improve relations with Brasilia on its own," he argued.
True, BRICS membership would benefit Venezuela, because it would reduce the pressure of Western sanctions on its economy, among other things. In turn, Venezuela can give the grouping access to its resources. In August, Maduro said he could grant oil and gas extraction rights to BRICS countries. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves of over 300 billion barrels and is the world's eighth-largest holder of gas reserves. Also, the country has substantial iron, aluminum, coal, gold, and diamond reserves, and its agriculture is well-developed.
Kommersant: Russia increases its coal, nickel, aluminum exports to China
In the first two months of 2025, China boosted its non-ferrous metal imports from Russia. Its purchases of copper grew by almost 1.5-fold to $711.77 million, its nickel imports rose 2.8-fold to $233.38 million, and it bought aluminum worth $895.95 million from Russia, a 29.5% increase, data from the Chinese customs showed. Analysts say China is looking to replenish its industrial metal stocks amid growing geopolitical tensions.
Oleg Abelev, head of analytics at Rikom Trust, said China has raised imports so far this year as it is looking to build its strategic reserves of non-ferrous metals to ensure industrial stability and amid rising demand for projects in infrastructure. Thus, the increase in copper imports at the start of this year may have something to do with a spike in prices globally amid expectations of consumption growth in China and the redirection of some exports to the United States ahead of the introduction of higher tariffs, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, Boris Kopeikin, told Kommersant.
According to Kopeikin, Russian aluminum supplies to China may grow by at least 2% this year amid expectations of economic growth. "And Russian exports to China may perhaps grow this year against the backdrop of rising industrial demand, high utilization rates domestically, and potential difficulties with hydropower generation in China in the summer due to a potential lack of precipitation, as has been the case in previous years," he predicts.
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