Russia proposes addressing Ukraine’s demilitarization at Istanbul talks; the US Court of International Trade declared Trump’s tariffs unlawful, hinting at a potential easing of trade tensions; as Israel and Hamas accepted new US-supported ceasefire terms. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Izvestia: Russia, Ukraine inch toward Istanbul talks with demilitarization on table
Russia and Ukraine may deliberate the issue of Kiev’s demilitarization during negotiations in Istanbul, Chairman of Russia’s Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. Previously, Moscow proposed holding a second round of talks on June 2 in Turkey. Kiev has yet to respond to the invitation, though its representatives claim to have submitted a draft memorandum for conflict resolution to Russia. The negotiation process is complicated by threats directed at Russian negotiators and the continued supply of weapons to Kiev.
"Demilitarization of Ukraine is one of our core positions. All issues relevant to our country and the international situation as a whole will be discussed," Karasin told Izvestia.
According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moscow has prepared a memorandum on the conditions for a peaceful settlement. However, Moscow has yet to receive a response from Kiev regarding the proposal to meet in Istanbul on June 2, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense and head of the Ukrainian delegation in talks with Russia, said that Kiev has submitted its own memorandum to Moscow. Umerov indicated that Kiev is not opposed to the meeting with Russia and is awaiting Moscow’s version of the memorandum.
During the next round of negotiations, if the Ukrainian side does not derail it, Russia’s representatives will adhere to their firm position. Moscow seeks the fulfillment of clear and unambiguous conditions previously outlined by the president. "Our main goal is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict and prevent its recurrence," Oleg Karpovich, Vice-Rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia.
"The objective of Ukraine is to provoke a collapse of the negotiations, in which they participate only under pressure from the US. They will attempt to secure Washington’s approval to abandon diplomacy, while simultaneously provoking emotional reactions from Donald Trump," he said.
Karpovich concluded that Kiev understands that achieving lasting peace threatens the political viability of the Zelensky regime and, therefore, no illusions should be harbored regarding the negotiability of its representatives.
Meanwhile, the positions of the interested parties regarding the second round of negotiations differ. Washington supports the continuation of dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. In contrast, the EU intends to maintain pressure on Russia while providing assistance to Ukraine. During Vladimir Zelensky’s recent visit to Germany, it was announced that the country would provide 5 bln euro in military aid to Kiev.
Media: Will US Court of International Trade ruling curb tariff wars escalation?
The US Court of International Trade has ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority and declared the tariffs he imposed unlawful, The New York Times reported. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the most intense phase of the trade wars has already passed, with tensions set to ease further and mutual tariffs to decline. This scenario is supported by the growing division within the United States: the Trade Court found a number of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump illegal and blocked their enforcement. Markets have already reacted positively to the legal developments, with global indices returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year.
As CNN clarified, the court ruling concerns the 30% levies on imports from China, the 25% tariffs on certain products from Mexico and Canada, and the 10% duties on most items entering the United States.
The court’s decision is beyond the authority of the executive branch at any level, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics at the School of Economics Dmitry Novikov told Izvestia. However, the White House may nonetheless attempt to ignore the decision in part or entirely, citing constitutional prerogatives. It appears that this will be a "prolonged showdown" between different branches of power in the United States, which will ultimately be resolved by a Supreme Court ruling, the expert believes.
It is too soon to draw a definitive conclusion regarding trade tariffs, as the Trump administration disagrees with the court’s decision and plans to appeal it, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam Financial Group Olga Belenkaya told Izvestia. However, it is highly likely that the peak of escalation is already behind us.
The court’s ruling will not have an immediate impact on inflationary trends in the United States or on the country’s economic situation, as it further complicates the tariff situation and adds uncertainty, Head of the Department of Economic Research at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Evgeny Khoroshilov told Vedomosti. The expert believes that trade negotiations with other countries will now become more sensitive.
Vedomosti: Israel, Hamas endorse new US ceasefire terms as White House pushes to end Gaza conflict
The administration of Donald Trump is optimistic about the prospects of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and securing the release of Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian group Hamas, according to the US President’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti generally agree that the potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, while offering a temporary reprieve, is fragile and unlikely to resolve the core conflicts.
The new ceasefire proposal, presented by Witkoff, envisions the release of 10 live and the return of 18 bodies of deceased Israeli hostages in exchange for a 60-day truce and the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, a source in the Israeli government told The Times of Israel. However, the source noted that the document does not contain any explicit obligations on Israel’s part to end the war.
According to Lyudmila Samarskaya, a research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Israel is potentially prepared to accept ceasefire terms that do not commitments to end the war - though even under such conditions, the risks of the deal collapsing remain extremely high. "In other words, the Israeli authorities are willing to agree to a deal that would not later lead to the disintegration of the coalition government or at least would not face strong objections from at least one of the leaders of the far-right parties," the expert added. However, Samarskaya continued, in the long term, even without a deal, the likelihood of Netanyahu’s cabinet falling apart is very high due to ongoing contradictions within the ruling bloc.
The agreement between Israel and Hamas would be unstable and could fall apart at any moment, warned research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Lev Sokolshchik. In his view, Washington prefers to delegate responsibility for regional security to local players. "For now, Washington retains leverage over the Jewish state, including through arms supplies. However, the current administration is unlikely to use them, as it sees Israel as its natural outpost in countering Iran," the expert explained.
A potential ceasefire agreement would be tactical and would be used by the warring parties as an opportunity to regroup and reorganize, believes Ivan Bocharov, a program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council.
Vedomosti: Analysts raise 2025 gold price forecasts amid strong demand and weakening dollar
The average price of gold in Q1 2025 rose by 20% year-over-year to $2,860 per ounce, with prices repeatedly setting historical records, according to a report from Kept. Last year, gold appreciated by 23% to $2,388 per ounce. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that amid strong global demand, a weakening dollar, and ongoing trade tensions, gold prices in 2025 are likely to range from $2,900 to $3,400 per ounce, with possible adjustments depending on the escalation or easing of geopolitical conflicts.
Kept analysts presented two potential scenarios for changes in the gold value - should mutual agreements be reached between the US and China regarding import tariffs and an end to the "trade wars," the average price is projected to rise to $2,870 per ounce, but if the trade conflict further escalates, the metal’s price could increase to $3,032 per ounce.
Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of Securities Research at Alfa-Bank, concurs with the report’s authors that the primary drivers of gold demand and prices this year will high demand from global central banks, ETFs, and private individuals, as well as a declining dollar and rising inflation due to trade wars. He believes that the average price of gold may reach $3,300-$3,400 per ounce.
Nikanor Khalin, Senior Analyst at Euler, estimates that in the baseline scenario, the average gold price in 2025 will amount to $3,150 per ounce, while in the scenario of a further escalation of trade wars, the price may climb to $3,300 per ounce.
According to Finam’s forecast, in the baseline scenario, the average price of gold will reach $3,000-$3,100 per ounce. In the bullish case, the figure could exceed $3,200 per ounce, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko told the Vedomosti. For the average price to fall below $2,900 per ounce, the price would need to drop below $2,800 per ounce over the remaining seven months of 2025, which is unlikely, he added.
Sergey Suverov, Investment Strategist at Aricapital, forecasts an average gold price of $3,050 per ounce in 2025. "If the intensity of trade wars subsides, gold prices may decline in the second half of 2025, since the production cost for most gold miners does not exceed $2,000 per ounce," he explained.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia increases LNG exports in 2024 despite sanctions
Russia expanded its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 2.1 mln tons in 2024 compared to the previous year, raising total exports from 31.4 to 33.5 mln tons. The country retained its position as the fourth-largest LNG exporter globally, contributing the most notable share to overall global export growth last year, according to the final report from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe that Russia’s future export growth will depend on geopolitical factors, the availability of new Arctic-class gas carriers, and fluctuating global demand for restricted Russian LNG.
The United States led global LNG exports in 2024, with 85.4 mln tons (+0.9 mln tons), followed by Australia with 79.2 mln tons (-0.4 mln tons) and Qatar with 78.2 mln tons (exports remained at 2023 levels). The global LNG market expanded from 401 to 406 mln tons in 2024, with over a third of the total increase attributed to Russian shipments.
Ivan Timonin, project manager at Implementa, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the primary driver behind Russia’s LNG export growth in 2024 was the Sabetta port, which channels exports from the Yamal LNG plant. Shipments from this port rose by 1.2 mln tons to reach 19.8 mln tons, and the Yamal LNG plant’s actual production capacity is sufficient to support these volumes.
However, Alexey Grivach, Deputy Head of the National Energy Security Fund, offered a differing perspective. He suggested that the primary source of the increase was likely the Arctic LNG 2 project, as facilities in the Baltic region and Yamal LNG had already reached their projected maximum output before 2024.
This year, the volume of Russian LNG exports will largely hinge on geopolitical developments, though economic factors also play a crucial role. According to Grivach, ramping up exports will be challenging without the large-scale deployment of new Arctic-class gas carriers, and progress in this area has been sluggish.
Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam, suggested that Arctic LNG 2 could export 1-2 mln tons of LNG this year, given that the project is technologically prepared. He added that during summer, when ice conditions are more favorable, shipments might be possible even without the limited availability of high ice-class tankers. However, the demand for LNG under sanctions remains the main uncertainty surrounding future volumes, as even friendly countries are not always willing to purchase it.
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