Russia and Ukraine exchanged conflict resolution memoranda despite recent attacks and stalled progress; the UK unveiled its largest defense spending plan in response to the perceived growing threat from Russia; and escalating US tariffs are expected to drive long-term structural changes in global trade. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Media: Russia, Ukraine trade conflict resolution memoranda in Istanbul as ceasefire talks falter
Recent strikes on military airfields and terrorist attacks in Russia’s border regions have influenced the course and outcome of the second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, experts told Izvestia. According to them, Kiev’s actions were aimed at undermining the negotiation process. Nevertheless, on June 2, both sides exchanged memoranda on conflict resolution and agreed to a new prisoner exchange. One of the innovations was Russia’s proposal to implement localized ceasefires along specific sections of the line of contact.
"We agreed on the largest and most comprehensive exchange under the following formula: first, all seriously wounded and gravely ill individuals will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis. This is a humanitarian gesture on our part," stated Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation and Russian Presidential Aide, following the meeting.
In addition, Russia will unilaterally return 6,000 recovered remains of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel to Ukraine. Russia also proposed a two-to-three-day ceasefire on certain segments of the line of contact.
Through Turkey, Russia handed Ukraine a draft memorandum for the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict. Medinsky explained that the document consists of two parts: how to achieve a genuine, long-term peace, and what steps must be taken to enable a full-scale ceasefire.
The key parameters for final conflict resolution in the Russian draft memorandum international legal recognition of Crimea, the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as part of Russia, along with the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed formations from those territories.
A Ukrainian draft document also emerged. According to its list of demands, Kiev does not intend to commit to neutrality or renounce its aspirations to join NATO and the European Union. The Ukrainian side expects an immediate 30-day ceasefire with the option for extension, and the line of demarcation is to be monitored by the United States and third-party countries.
"In the Ukrainian memorandum, they are effectively demanding that we surrender, so it was obvious that Russia would not agree to any deal within the framework of these exchanged memoranda. There is no room for compromise," Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
The exchange of memoranda is significant in terms of the potential for narrowing the gap between negotiating positions, expert at the Valdai Discussion Club Andrey Kortunov told Vedomosti. The expert emphasized that setting out conditions in writing at this initial stage makes it possible to identify potential "points of convergence," which can then serve as a foundation for developing ways to reconcile positions on the most divisive issues.
According to Kortunov, the overall prospects for a new round of talks and the continuation of the current negotiation format depend on whether the negotiators on both sides possess a clear mandate to make concessions, as well as on the achievement of concrete agreements "If so, a new round could take place within a couple of weeks or a month," Kortunov concluded.
According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, what happens next is now of pivotal importance, following a second round of negotiations that failed to yield an agreement on a durable ceasefire. Vladimir Zelensky, currently on an official visit to Vilnius, stated that in the absence of tangible results (specifically, what Kiev defines as such) from the second round, President Donald Trump must respond with additional pressure tools against Russia.
It remains unclear whether Trump, who has called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, is ready to endorse more stringent measures against Moscow, the newspaper writes. However, US Senators Lindsey Graham (Republican from South Carolina, included in Russia’s list of terrorists and extremists) and Richard Blumenthal (Democrat from Connecticut), co-authors of a sweeping anti-Russian sanctions bill, are already visiting European capitals in an effort to persuade allied nations to enforce new sanctions against Russia ahead of the G7 summit scheduled for June 15-17 in Canada.
Kommersant: London unveils largest defense overhaul, citing Russian threat
The United Kingdom has announced the largest defense investment initiative since the Cold War, including a significant boost to its nuclear arsenal, as part of a sweeping rearmament program aimed at countering Russia. Over the next few years, the British government plans to spend more than $20 bln solely on ammunition production. The strategy also includes the construction of new submarines, a dramatic increase in warhead manufacturing, enhanced protection of critical infrastructure, and investments in drones, cyber technologies, and artificial intelligence, Kommersant writes. According to media reports, the UK also intends to restore the airborne component of its nuclear deterrent - abandoned in the late 1990s. British officials have made it clear that these moves are primarily directed at deterring Russia.
On Monday, June 2, Prime Minister Keir Starmer presented a new strategic defense review. In his address, he stated that the threat facing the UK today is "more serious, more immediate and more unpredictable than at any time since the Cold War," referring chiefly to the perceived threat from Russia. To meet this challenge, Starmer proposed increasing defense spending from the current 2.3% of GDP to 2.5% by 2027, and to 3% by 2034. The British Armed Forces, he stressed, must be ready to engage in war at any moment.
Experts estimate that the United Kingdom currently possesses around 225 nuclear warheads - though the actual number may be higher, as the government ceased publishing detailed data on its arsenal some time ago while retaining the right to expand its stockpile.
According to Alexander Ermakov, a research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, the UK is likely preparing to formally join NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program. He also suggested that the move could serve as a way to "legitimize" the deployment of US nuclear bombs to the UK’s RAF Lakenheath base, which houses American squadrons.
Ermakov predicted that Russia will "undoubtedly react extremely negatively" to the expansion of NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program and the enhancement of the UK’s nuclear capabilities. He added that this would also represent a significant shift in US policy on overseas nuclear basing. "For the past 35 years, the United States has consistently reduced both the geographical scope and the number of deployed warheads," he added.
Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice party, has been elected President of Poland with 50.89% of the vote, according to official data from the State Electoral Commission. His opponent, Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Coalition, secured 49.11%, despite leading in exit polls. Nawrocki’s victory ensures the continued coexistence of a president and a prime minister from opposing political factions - a dynamic that, experts say, may even lead to early parliamentary elections, Izvestia writes. The new head of state is expected to maintain a strong orientation toward Washington, and his campaign was actively supported by the Trump administration. However, analysts noted that Warsaw’s policies toward Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to undergo change.
According to Vadim Trukhachyov, Associate Professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, the Polish electorate appears to have deliberately chosen a divided-power configuration between the presidency and the government.
"They made this choice to ensure that no single extreme prevails - to avoid full subordination to the European Union, while also preserving stable relations with Brussels," he told Izvestia. The expert added that both presidential candidates shared similar positions on Russia, and therefore no shift in Warsaw’s posture should be expected. Poland will continue to support Ukraine, though Nawrocki is said to be more skeptical about Kiev than the current ruling party.
Moreover, Karol Nawrocki has signed a declaration that includes a formal rejection of Ukraine’s NATO accession. According to Nawrocki, allowing Ukraine to join the alliance would effectively place the entire North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a state of war with Russia.
Nawrocki’s win gives Washington a new ally within the European Union - an outcome that partly offsets the recent defeat of Trump ally George Simion in Romania. Still, analysts caution against interpreting Poland’s trajectory as a wholesale pivot toward the United States. Rather, a two-fold strategy is expected to persist, with the president deepening ties with Washington while the prime minister continues engagement with the EU.
Leading economists around the world expect a significant worsening in the state of the global economy over the next year due to growing uncertainty, according to the Chief Economists Outlook published by the World Economic Forum. The United States is forecast to suffer the most from the ongoing trade war, with experts predicting sluggish economic growth. Europe and China are also among those expected to be "seriously affected," although China could potentially demonstrate resilient growth if it successfully addresses its accumulated domestic challenges. Overall, the report indicates that economists increasingly view Washington’s trade policy as a driver of long-term fundamental shifts in the global economy.
According to the economists surveyed, US trade policy will fuel inflation (as stated by 77% of respondents) and reduce the volume of global trade (89%). Retaliatory measures are also expected to exert additional pressure on global trade dynamics: 57% of those surveyed anticipate that reciprocal tariffs will be actively imposed in the coming months.
At present, just over half of the experts (53%) believe the "economic damage" from the trade war will be concentrated in the United States and in those countries facing heightened tariffs on their exports to the US. Meanwhile, nearly one-third (32%) believe the impact will be felt even by nations not directly involved in the confrontation.
The outlook for the European economy remains uncertain. Half of the economists surveyed expect weak growth due to trade-related instability, while 36% anticipate moderate expansion. Notably, the lingering effects of recent monetary easing may support growth in the near term: 76% of respondents expect further interest rate cuts.
As a result of US tariff policy, China’s economic growth is projected to slow more than expected - declining sentiment is already evident among both consumers and businesses.
The majority of leading economists (76%) regard Donald Trump’s trade policy as a factor capable of triggering structural transformations in global trade - potentially reshaping supply chains - and do not expect its effects to be short-lived.
The Northern Sea Route will help boost shipments of Russian raw materials from the Arctic to China, Russian Ambassador to China Igor Morgulov told Izvestia. This opens access to promising Arctic projects, including in the energy and resource sectors. Existing joint ventures in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production are already in operation, and additional initiatives are under consideration, the ambassador emphasized. According to experts, this may lead to the development of cross-regional shipping routes to China via northern ports along the Northern Sea Route.
"China is already a participant in our LNG production complexes, and in the future, other joint initiatives may be implemented. In this context, the Northern Sea Route is not merely a transportation corridor but a crucial link between the Chinese market and the resource base of the Russian Arctic zone," the ambassador said.
The decision to advance the Northern Sea Route was personally agreed upon by President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping in May 2024, following the Russian president’s state visit to China. The mutual interest in Northern Sea Route development is understandable, especially against the backdrop of sanction-related pressures that are disrupting global supply chains, the newspaper writes.
China is also keen on the advancement of the northern corridor, Morgulov noted, citing several clear advantages for Beijing. First, it is economically beneficial. Second, in recent years, China’s economy has required greater diversification of its trade and transport routes.
"The key benefit lies in reducing transportation costs - a transit through the Arctic between China’s eastern seaboard and Northern European ports is 15-20 days shorter than the traditional route via the Suez Canal. This results in nearly a twofold savings in both time and fuel expenditures, which is especially important for high-margin cargo," the Russian ambassador to China told Izvestia.
This growing demand is already evident in the data. In 2024, Chinese shipping companies completed 14 voyages and transported a total of 176,000 metric tons of containerized cargo, a nearly twofold increase in both metrics compared to 2023, Morgulov added.
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