The White House has no absolute suretyship that the UN Security Council will extend the mandate. Therefore the USA decided to follow another way, i.e. to conclude a bilateral agreement with Iraq on the status of its troops in this country and thus extend their presence on a legal basis.
Talks on the agreement were protracted and difficult. On the one side, the presence of the American troops in Iraq is opposed by influential Shiah parties supported by Iran, as well as representatives of Shiah radical Imam Muktada as-Sadr who heads a powerful armed group named the Army of Mahdi. The presence of American soldiers in the country is also opposed by a majority of Iraqis. Everybody wants sovereignty.
On the other side, the Iraqi leadership understands that without American support its security forces will hardly neutralize the threats posed until now by Al-Qaeda, and various radical national groups. As of today, the security in 6 of 18 provinces (Baghdad, Diyala, Salah ad-Din, Ninawa, At-Tamim and Wasit) is still provided by the US troops.
During the protracted talks the parties reached a compromise on one of the most painful problems, i.e. a status of American militaries stationed in Iraq. Under a compromise draft agreement they will enjoy immunity from prosecution by the Iraqi authorities. However, these authorities will have an opportunity to participate in investigation of crimes committed by US militaries located outside their military bases. Civil servants will enjoy the status of State Department officials whose immunity is guaranteed by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
Experts believe that the document has been prepared so that each of the parties would be satisfied and could claim its success. The American militaries will retain almost all present-day privileges, at the same time Baghdad will be able to demand that the investigation of the most serious cases would be transferred under the local jurisdiction. The US DoD is unsatisfied with such decision but has to accept it. In the nearest future US State Secretary Condoleezza Rice and other top-ranking officials of the Administration will start explaining key provisions of the draft agreement with Iraq to the most influential Congressmen.
At the same time the United States is seriously concerned over the fact if Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki would be able to attain support of the agreed-upon document by the Government and Parliament where opponents of cooperation with the USA believe that the American military presence undermines the national sovereignty.
Under the draft agreement the American troops are to be withdrawn from Iraqi cities before late June 2009 and completely leave Iraq before December 31, 2011 provided the Government of this country requests otherwise.
Meanwhile, as the threat of terror posed by Al-Qaeda in Iraq becomes less, a probability of conflict between the parties constituting the Government coalition increases. This in turn, challenges the prospects of stabilization in the country.
A conflict between Government troops and armed Kurdish fighters Peshmerga is maturing in Province Diyala of north-eastern Iraq. The crisis was initiated in July when the Central authorities demanded that Kurds would abandon this province, return to Kurdistan and transfer control over the area to the Iraqi Army. According to Iraqi mass media, Nuri al-Maliki recently warned that Peshmerga will be gravely punished if it continues to operate outside Iraqi Kurdistan.
Evidently that the Iraqi leadership mainly consisting of Shiites is about to take a decision to put an end to the Kurdish aspirations to freedom that in fact resulted in establishment of a independent state in northern Iraq. In turn, Massud Barzani, head of the Kurdish autonomy and leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, claimed that Iraq still lives under influence of the Saddam regime and Central Government as a matter of fact is not going to share the power with the Kurds.
The situation in Iraq is complicated due to grave deterioration of health of Sheikh Jangi Talabani, 75-year-old President, a native Kurd, who left for the USA for treatment. This Kurdish politician always managed to make it up with Shiites, and in 2007 became one of the architects of the alliance between two Kurdish and two Shiah political parties, which became a support of the Nuri al-Maliki’s Government.
US President Elect Barak Obama during his election campaign promised to withdraw all American troops from Iraq within 16 months after his inauguration. However, General David H. Petraeus. Commander, Multi-National Force-Iraq, and many other top-ranking militaries in the Pentagon do not rely on any fixed date and prefer to associate the final withdrawal from Iraq with actually achieved results in stabilization of the situation in this country, which remains a field for operations of weakened but still alive Al-Qaeda and which lacks reconciliation between national groups. Therefore the promise of Obama would be hardly implemented within the indicated term.
