Teheran is growing increasingly skeptical about the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) it signed P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) in Vienna back in 2015.
In May 2018 US President Donald Trump authorized the US’ withdrawal from the Iraniannuclear deal – that had been reached after many years of negotiations. In November 2018 new and tough US economic sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports and transportation as well as its banking sector will come into force. These would be applied not only to the Iranian but also to foreign companies and states which proceed with their cooperation with Teheran.
After US pulled out from the JCPOA, Iran demanded that European parties to the Agreement should take practical steps to guarantee that the deal would still be honored. In other words, Teheran requested guarantees from the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the EU that renewed sanctions regime would not affect thetrade and economic cooperation between Iran andEuropean companies and financial institutions. The EU promised that by late June it would come up with a package of measures meant to protect Iran from the impact of the US’ sanctions and to guarantee it gets all economic advantages provided for by the JCPOA.
Europe sounded determined. It seemed that the Old World was even set to counter the pressure from across the ocean. Yet none of its numerous declarations has been put into practice – which makes Tehran very annoyed. "I cannot say that the prospect of the continuation of negotiations with Europe is bright and clear, and can lead us to achieve a joint package for saving the JCPOA," the Euronews’ Persian version quoted Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as saying. Iranian diplomat said, Teheran's patience is coming to an end, and it is quite possible that Tehran walks out of the JCPOA within the next few weeks.
Hossein Naghavi Hosseini, the spokesman for the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, sounds even more pessimistic. He is certain that all attempts to save the deal would fail. "The Europeans cannot make up for our losses and provide guarantees to us against the USwill," Hosseini told the ISNA news agency on Monday. "For me as a political analyst, the JCPOA was finished when the USwithdrew. It has become impossible to save the JCPOA and the attempts to preserve it have proven to be futile," he said.
Following the JCPOA signing, Iran offered large preferences to companies attracted by its market of 80-million consumers. Iran's automotive sector that has traditionally been dominated by French carmakers, has been hit particularly hard. Domestic prices soared. In June alone as some foreign carmakers, including Peugeot, Citroen, and Hyundai, announced their decision to leave Iran, some cars put on as much as $4,000-$7,000. Other carmakers limited their output.
Iran’s oil sector is also bleeding. Iran’s Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said that large oil companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell and Total, had already stopped buying oil in Iran.
The Bloomberg news agency reported that the US demanded that Japan stops purchasing oil from Iran altogether. Such a demand implies that US has adopted a much harder stance compared to that of 2012, when it still allowed countries importing Iranian oil, to buy it, though in minimal amounts.
India, one the largest consumers of Iranian oil that covers up to 10% of its domestic oil demand, said it was ready to switch to rupee payments in oil trade with Iran, as it does not believe European banks would withstand US’ pressure and would authorize euro payments for Iranian oil.
Russia and Iran hold consultations on possible scenarios concerning the future of the JCPOA. Late last week Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov met with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. Moscow confirmed its commitment to the Iranian nuclear deal. The Mehr news agency quoted Russian and Iranian joint statement made after the talks that "the two sides agreed to continue active cooperation on the issue in order to protect their trade and economic cooperation against U.S.’s unilateral and illegal sanctions."
Iran is already making preparations in case nuclear deal fails. In mid-June, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Behrouz Kamalvandi said that if the JCPOA dies Iran would resume enriching uranium at the Fordow plant. This means that the plant would enrich uranium to levels over 5%. Situated underground and well protected from possible air strikes, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant had enriched uranium to 20% starting from 2011 well up to the signing of the JCPOA.
In addition, the Natanz nuclear facility would start producing advanced centrifuges, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said.
Iranian Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi, who visited the Fordow plant, early this week, told journalists that Iran, resting on its own research and developments, could easily rehabilitate its nuclear program. "If the other sides decide to accompany the US and leave the JCPOA, the Islamic Republic of Iran can return to the pre-JCPOA situation and even bring the nuclear industry to more sensitive and advanced points in a short period of time based on the Iranian scientists’ valuable achievements," Alavi told journalists.
