Idea of referendum in Donbass may help overcome impasse in Minsk process / News / News agency Inforos

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/ Ukraine / Security / Ukraine crisis / Presidential elections in Ukraine

Idea of referendum in Donbass may help overcome impasse in Minsk process

24.07.2018 13:09

Context:

The idea of holding a referendum on the status of Donbass, which - according to media reports - was voiced by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Helsinki summit, may push the Kiev authorities to implement the Minsk Agreements, Eduard Solovyov, an expert with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told TASS.

"It is most likely a tool to exert additional pressure on Kiev," he said. "The very initiative was prompted by the situation because the impasse in the Minsk process is clear, as well as the need to continue efforts to resolve the Donbass situation. This was the reason behind Vladimir Putin’s initiative to deploy peacekeepers along the line of contact, which he put forward last year. The idea of holding a referendum in Donbass is another link in the same chain," the expert added.

Agreements are not working

According to Solovyov, Ukraine is reluctant to implement the Minsk Agreements in the form they were adopted, citing the alleged presence of Russian troops in the conflict zone and saying that Ukraine first needed to regain full control of the border with Russia.

"Since the Western countries haven’t exerted any pressure on Kiev so far in order to make it implement the Minsk Agreements, [Ukrainian President Pyotr] Poroshenko sees no reasons to do that," the expert noted.

"Ukraine has been making active efforts to revise the Minsk Agreements. The current Ukrainian elite believes that political and constitutional reforms enshrined in the accords, as well as the move to provide special status to Donbass, will undermine the country’s sovereignty. At the same time, given the patriotic hysteria whipped up by the country’s authorities, Poroshenko may also have to face a drop in his approval rating ahead of the presidential and parliamentary election," Solovyov added.

Ukraine’s response

The expert pointed out that Ukraine had negatively responded to the idea of holding a referendum in Donbass.

"Kiev rejected this initiative right away, saying that it ran counter to the previous agreements on resolving the crisis," he said. "They provide a lot of explanations as to why such a referendum cannot be held. The Ukrainian authorities particularly emphasize various details and controversial points, making it clear that they oppose the very idea. For instance, they cite a large number of refugees and displaced persons outside Donbass, asking how their participation in the referendum may be ensured, speak about security issues and so on," the expert said.

"This is why I would say that this initiative is more like a trial balloon to push Kiev to implement the Minsk Agreements, encourage the Western countries to step up their activities and also give an impetus to the search for new ways out of this long-standing conflict," Solovyov concluded.

Minsk Agreements

After Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted in a coup in February 2014, mass protests began in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, largely populated by Russian- speaking people. As a response, the Kiev authorities launched a military operation in Donbass in April 2014. The shelling of residential areas led to a humanitarian catastrophe in the region. According to the United Nations, the armed conflict has claimed the lives of around 10,000 people, while more than 20,000 have been wounded.

In February 2015, the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements aimed at resolving the Donbass conflict was signed at a summit of the Normandy Quartet (involving Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine). The 13-point document calls for a ceasefire in Donbass, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the line of contact, an amnesty, a constitutional reform aimed at decentralizing the country and a special status to certain areas in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

However, the agreements have not been fulfilled until now. Kiev has been refusing to implement political provisions, citing unresolved security issues as one of its reasons. Ukraine has failed to carry out a constitutional reform, as well as to enforce a law on the special status of Donbass and pass a law on regional elections. Instead, it insists on regaining control over the border with Russia, though the Minsk Agreements say that it must happen after elections.

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