Passionate about geopolitics because of my past professional activities, I have had the chance to visit 86 countries in a professional or personal capacity and to have lived abroad for more than 10 years. This experience, as well as my education, my values – all that has given me the necessary tools to evaluate, with ever greater precision, different sides of a country’s life.
I went to Teheran on June, 23 - 27 to get a better understanding of the moods and sentiment of the Iranians and their leaders after the US’ had walked out from the nuclear agreement. I was looking for something I could not getfrom the western mainstream media, running biased comments of the "self-proclaimed experts", often too partisan.
This was my second trip to Iran after I had visited it in October, 2007 on a cultural tour.
Teheran today is a modern, vibrant, colorful city that has little to envy with many Western capitals. The traffic is dense, or even congested, but no more than it is in Paris. The markets are busy and the Iranians in the capital go about their daily chores without apparent stress.
To be precise, on June 25 and 26, the merchants of the Grand Bazaar protested against the devaluation of the currency, but this social protest was far from reaching the level of the protests that flareup time and again in our beautiful country (SNCF strike, Air France, pension reform.... etc.) In short, Iran, no matter what it is called, is a normal country, where people seem to be free to express their dissatisfaction.
As for the Iranian leaders, it should be remembered that under the rule of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a head of State brought to power following a coup d'état supported by the Americans, Khamenei spent some time in the prisons of the Savak, Iran's home security service. In fact, one of the points in my agenda was the visit to the Supreme Leader's cell at the Savak premises.Like anyone in the world, the Iranian leaders can well observe the chaos generated by the US’ actions all across our planet, especially since September 2001 (Iraq, Libya, Syria, now Ukraine) and the disastrous long-term consequences of these actions (e.g. rise of terrorism and migration crisis, deadly civil wars). Like all of us, they have seen that the United States says nothing regarding major international treaties (climate Treaty, Iranian nuclear Treaty, Trade treaties with Asia, but also with its neighbours and European allies).
No wonder, then, that Iran's leaders have no confidence in the US leaders who have kept Iran under sanctions for nearly 40 years and who supported Saddam Hussein's very deadly war against their young Islamic Republic back in 1980-1988.
The Iranian leaders whom I was able to meet appeared to me to be lively, intelligent, bright with a clear vision of the modern world realities, concerned about the interests of their country and its independence. I got an impression that when we spoke, they were frank and direct. In short, to my great dismay, I have found that their politicians seem, all things considered, more competent and courageous than ours: less belligerent and "rustic", and less warmongers than American politicians, less prone to servility and tongue-in-cheek than Europeans.
The Iranian political elite has perfectly understood that the US neocon foreign policy (America first, America über alles) is inspired by a deep state composed of lobbies, that their anti-Iranian stance is directly inspired by the AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee), that the speech and the thought of Trump is a copy-paste of Benjamin Nethanyahu’s, - like it was with Trump’s speech at the AIPAC Congress on March 6.
Iran's leaders have no illusions about the European Union's real will to save the nuclear deal. They know that the system of governance by a "deep state" that prevails in the United States also exists in Europe, particularly in France and the United Kingdom. They also know that these are the same lobbies that inspire the foreign policies of these two countries (FR and UK). They know that the tripartite "neoconservative" strike of April 14 in Syria (USA-UK-FR), without UN approval, was inspired, in these three countries, by a single transnational lobby, or at least by brother lobbies, who do not really appreciate Iran.
But Iran's leaders also know that the world is changing and that time can play into their hands. They know that the United States, with more than 21 trillion US dollars in debt, will also experience considerable difficulties in the short to medium term perspective, and that it will lose its global supremacy. They know that Iran has been able to maintain for nearly 40 years, despite the sanctions, its independence and economic growth, and they are proud of that.
They know that the US unilateral sanctions, condemned by the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) at the recent Qingdao summit, sanctions not buried by the UN, will not be implemented by their main allies and trading partners (China, India, Russia, Turkey).
They also know that the economic, as well as political and military centre of gravity of the world is shifting in favour of Eurasia, that is not hostile to them.
In short, they know that tomorrow they will be less alone than they were yesterday in confronting the US and its sanctions. That's probably why they seemed serene and determined.
Dominique Delawerde – a former officer in the French military from 1959 to 2005 and a graduate of the prestigious military academy of Saint-Cyr, Dominique Delawarde served 8 years abroad including 3 years in the United States. After commanding military units of the Légion étrangère and Mountain Rangers, Delawarde was also assigned to intelligence affairs at a national staff level.
