It might sound counterintuitive at first, but the US’ sanctioning of Turkey actually helps Russia by strengthening the Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership while simultaneously decreasing American influence within the targeted country.  

Trump’s recent imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on nominal NATO “ally” Turkey was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back and catalyzed the lira’s collapse. The economic consequences of this weaponized attack against the country’s currency will exacerbate its preexisting structural vulnerabilities and probably trigger a pronounced downturn in Turkey, which, as the US hopes, might be disastrous enough to force President Erdogan to return to the Western political fold for sanctions relief. Should he continue to stubbornly remain committed to his multipolar pivot of recent years, then the US will predictably try to orchestrate another “Gezi Park” Color Revolution attempt, which might even “succeed if it fails” so long as the state responds heavy-handedly enough to produce “legitimate anti-government grievances” where they may not have been any. 

Turkey has experience confronting these asymmetrical regime change threats and it’s unlikely that President Erdogan will back down in the face of Trump’s pressure, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this tense state of affairs between the US and Turkey continues for at least the indefinite short-term future. The domestic situation inside the Mideast country will probably deteriorate, but it should be controllable provided that the state implements the proper policies for managing these challenging times and giving relief to the most vulnerable members of society who need it most. As part of this strategy, Turkey is looking towards its sanctions-hit Russian and Iranian partners, with these three multipolar Great Powers having the chance to take their cooperative experiences in Syria via the Astana framework to the next economic level between them

It would be mutually beneficial for all parties to deepen their economic and strategic cooperation with one another in response to the shared threat that they each face from different types of American sanctions, but Russia is the one country of the three that’s expected to benefit the most from the US’ economic restrictions against Turkey. Before proceeding, it must be unambiguously stated that Russia does not support Trump’s anti-Turkish sanctions, but President Putin has proven himself on many occasions to be just as masterful at international judo moves as he is at those in martial arts, so it’s a foregone conclusion that Moscow would try to find a way to turn this situation around in the direction of it and Ankara’s shared interests.

In this case, both countries are striving to create a Multipolar World Order where a diversity of Great Powers each has a semi-equal role in shaping the future of International Relations, with the outcome of their collective efforts preferably being the creation of a new world system that’s fairer for each of them than the previous US-controlled one was. With this mission in mind, it makes sense why Russia will stand with Turkey in spite of the latter ostensibly still being a NATO member especially when considering that Ankara has pursued a very independent course ever since the failed summer 2016 pro-American coup attempt against President Erdogan. Although still part of the same military “alliance” as the US by virtue of historical inertia, Turkey is no longer on the same strategic plane as America is but is instead moving towards multipolarity. 

It’s precisely because of the progress that it’s made in the past two years in expanding its full-spectrum relations with Russia and Iran that the US is so distrustful of its one-time subordinate and hence so willing to “stab it in the back”, as President Erdogan phrased it, first by trying to overthrow its democratically elected and legitimate leader once it first caught wind of this strategic shift and then to economically punish it by crashing the already-vulnerable lira once it realized that Ankara was sincere with its foreign policy “rebalancing”. Looked at through the “zero-sum” lense that most American foreign policy strategists view the world, this is undoubtedly to Russia’s advantage because it will naturally result in closer working relations between it and Turkey on an ever-growing variety of projects, especially in the economic and financial spheres. 

DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution.