On November 25, three Ukrainian navy ships illegally crossed Russia’s border. They ignored demands to stop and continued maneuvering in Russian territorial waters. In order to stop the Ukrainian ships, weapons had to be used. The three vessels were detained. Inforos spoke about the incident with James George Jatras, analyst, former U.S. diplomat and foreign policy adviser of the Senate Republican leadership.
Clear-cut provocation
It is clear that it was a provocation from president Poroshenko’s side. Western countries and the US put it in the context of saying “Well, we don’t recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea,” therefore they can claim these are Ukrainian territorial waters.
The Russians control the Kerch Strait and the Ukrainian ships have passed in and out giving appropriate notifications to the Russian side. They had to know what the Russian response would be. I don’t think there is any doubt – it was deliberate provocation and they exactly expected the result they got – not only Trump canceling his meeting with Putin at the G20, but this usual hysterical reaction that based on a principle: “we are right, you are wrong – the end of the discussion.” Unfortunately, this has become an operating code of the Western powers, particularly of the United States, and it really does not matter what party is in power.
Poroshenko’s electoral tactics
Poroshenko wants to make sure he will at least get into the second round of forthcoming presidential elections campaign, presumably with Yulia Timoshenko, which is going to be very tough for him. Of course, Poroshenko also uses the Kerch incident as a pretext to declare martial law along the border with Russia. He wanted a nationwide state of emergency martial law for 60 days, but he only got 30 days. I think there is a real fear that he could plot another incident in order to extend that martial law.
What Poroshenko expects is not necessarily to go to war with Russia. He thinks that increasing tensions with Russia would bolster his rating enough to get him into the second round. His hope is that Yulia’s rating, which is more than double of his own rating, is also a ceiling, and in the second round she can increase her poll number only by another ten or fifteen points, but she can’t get fifty. That is what Poroshenko is banking on, especially if he has Western support and can get close to her within ten points he can use administrative means to steal the rest.
America’s care for Ukraine
Let’s get it straight – nobody in America except for a few Americans of Ukrainian origin, cares about Ukraine at all. Ukraine is useful only as an advanced placement for American forces in favorable circumstance. That was an intention – to have an advanced salience into the Russian sphere that would make Russia’s national security situation untenable. I don’t know if the Russians did the right thing in Crimea in 2014, but I can tell you that if they had not done what they did there would have been an American base at Sevastopol right now.
I remember how the Maidan crowd in February 2014 was full steam ahead to get Ukraine in NATO. Even with the Europeans’ objections, the Bucharest declaration saying that Ukraine and Georgia will be the members of NATO has never been taken off the table and it is still formally the position of NATO. So, this is all extremely dangerous.
US warships in the Black Sea?
If the US decide to send warships to the Black Sea in order to show force in support of Ukrainians this will be an irresponsibly dangerous and reckless action. Coming of American warships in the Black Sea presents another invitation for Poroshenko to try to start something dangerous. I don’t know how he would do that - maybe it would be coupled with something along the line of control in Donbass, maybe it would be something to do with Pechersk Lavra or Pochaev monastery in West Ukraine. There is a number of things he could do that would inflame tensions and would force some kind of reaction from Moscow and of course Moscow would be blamed for aggression because of the reaction.
Look - this is not the first time we have seen this kind of thing. The one that occurs to me of course is Srebrenica during the Bosnian war. It was very useful there for NATO to have a number of Muslims killed so that they could intervene. Of course, they completely lied about how many people were killed, circumstances under which they were killed.
Russia – NATO confrontation
I don’t think that a major military clash between Russia and Ukraine with NATO launching a full-scale attack on Russian Federation is possible. But there may be some kind of incidental or accidental escalation, something may happen in Donbass, some incident may occur in the Black Sea or near the Kerch Strait. Suddenly we may find ourselves at the brink of a military confrontation between NATO and Russia that neither side wants but neither one is in the position to back down.
Some sparks set off in a way that nobody anticipates. Especially when it happens amidst American threats to denounce the INF Treaty between the US and Russia signed during the Cold war, the Treaty that provides strategic international security.
