Top stories in the Russian press on Thursday, January 10 (TASS)
Izvestia: will Turkey cross the Rubicon after US troops exit Syria?
Turkey should expect serious changes along the Syrian course. Ankara’s hopes for military and political cooperation with Washington are coming under serious doubt, Izvestia writes. US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria may both change Turkey’s plans on combating the terrorist threat near its borders and its general approaches to settling the Syrian conflict.
Although Washington's Syria pullout means decreasing the level of US cooperation with the Syrian Kurds, Turkey is afraid of "pitfalls." It is seriously alarming that the troop pullout does not fit the US' long-term plans in the region, the paper says.
It may seem that Trump gave Turkey carte blanche to carry out an offensive against the militants of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, whom Washington had armed and trained since 2016. But there is a frightening uncertainty about Turkey’s fight against the Syrian Kurds, Izvestia writes. Even if Erdogan decides to launch a mop-up operation against unfriendly forces on the Syrian border, the scale of this interference will result in losses among Turkish military personnel. The war against the Syrian Kurds may turn into an operation against guerillas and its success may be undermined by possible clashes with Assad's troops.
“It’s difficult to judge about the motives of Trump’s sensational statement, this was either populism that is now running into harsh reality and the stance of the US military and political establishment, or a stunt to step up contacts among the interested players and probe their reaction,” expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs Anton Mardasov said.
The expert notes that the option of handing the territories over to Turkey is at loggerheads with Damascus’ wish to control the oil deposits in these areas and the Kurds’ desire to stay there. Meanwhile, regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are against the scenario of transferring Syria's northeastern areas over to Turkey’s control, he said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow plunges deeper into Syrian conflict
Turkish forces may strike the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the backbone of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, at any moment, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. Washington warned Ankara that clashing with units of the Syrian Democratic Forces was undesirable, even near Manbij, which had been recently controlled by Washington. Now Russia’s military police have started controlling this zone, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
It’s clear that there is a conflict of interests, although both Turkey and the US have not condemned Russia’s move. So, for the first time in the history of the Syrian civil war there was a bloodless entry of military police units into the former US de-escalation zone. This happened after a phone conversation between Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford and Russia’s General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov.
Russia’s military police units will operate near Manbij on a regular basis, state media reports said. From the viewpoint of stabilization there, it is apparently not bad. First, Russia took the Kurdish YPG units loyal to the US under its wing. Second, Russia is now containing a possible offensive by the Turkish army into northern Syria, which Erdogan had announced earlier.
However, since the US departure from Aleppo, Russia has gotten sucked even further into the Syrian conflict without achieving any benefits, the paper says. Moscow continues shelling out significant financial and military resources to support Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Meanwhile, Syria’s domestic political problems remain unsolved despite the defeat of the Islamic State (terror group, outlawed in Russia). No political breakthroughs regarding the Syrian peace process are on the horizon. So, the rudiments for new conflicts and continuing the civil war are created in Syria.
Stanislav Ivanov, a Research Associate at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes that "despite victorious reports by a number of foreign statesmen, there are no conditions for restoring the Syrian state now." According to him, Assad has become a hostage of his Alawite clan, the Ba’athist elite and Iranian ayatollahs, who are afraid of any free elections and democratic reforms in the country. "All of them are satisfied by the option of returning to the previous model of a police state and a dictatorship."
Kommersant: China may become guarantor of US-North Korea accords
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un wrapped up his surprise visit to Beijing on Wednesday, where he held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kommersant writes. Kim’s trip came on the heels of US President Donald Trump’s statement about preparations for his new meeting with the North Korean leader, which will take place soon.
Ahead of this meeting, Kim seeks to gain the backing of Beijing, and the future of the Korean settlement mainly depends on this. China may become a key mediator and guarantor of the US-North Korea agreements, the paper says.
No official statements were made after the talks in Beijing. Initially, Kim’s visit was expected to last until Thursday, but the famous armored train of the North Korean leader left the Chinese capital two days earlier than expected. Despite the secrecy surrounding Kim’s fourth visit to Beijing of late, a key to understanding its motives was the statement by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang. Recalling that over the past year important positive changes have occurred on the Korean Peninsula, the Chinese diplomat confirmed Beijing’s readiness to provide assistance to the process of nuclear disarmament on the Korean Peninsula and normalization of ties between Beijing and Washington amid Kim’s readiness for reconciliation with the US.
"Diplomatic activity over the last few days seen in the Washington-Pyongyang-Beijing triangle indicates that the key players are determined to make new progress in the Korean settlement based on last year’s agreements," said Alexander Lomanov, Chief Research Fellow at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to the expert, despite positive changes achieved on the Korean Peninsula after the Kim-Trump summit in Singapore, there are many pitfalls on the path to peace in addition to major bumps in the road that lie ahead. "The euphoria over the first summit is gradually giving way to the understanding that for further progress in the negotiation process, both sides will have to make serious mutual concessions. At the same time, Kim Jong-un’s urgent trip to Beijing shows that a lasting settlement cannot be achieved in the narrow format of bilateral negotiations between Seoul and Washington. Does Donald Trump want this or not? He won’t do this without a reputable mediator and guarantor of future agreements with Pyongyang," Lomanov said. "Only China can play this role under the current conditions."
