The creation of “a security zone” in northern Syria along the border with Turkey is gradually moving from a theoretic concept towards becoming a reality. The prospect of establishing such a zone was raised by US President Donald Trump. It refers to an area of about 460 km long and 32 km wide, which covers the northern districts of the provinces of Aleppo, Raqqa and Hasaka. Turkey immediately supported the idea and now Americans are in talks with Turks on implementation of this ambitious project. Notably, the consultations have already been held as high as on the level of the heads of general staff. 

Presumably, Ankara regards the new zone as a possibility to push the border, to get inside the Syrian territory (at best - not to give back what was captured) and to create a kind of a buffer zone in front of the Kurdish Self Defense forces (YPG). Ankara regards them as the Syrian branch of Kurdistan’s Workers’ Party, which is on the list of terrorist groups in Turkey.

It is not a coincidence that even before the end of the negotiations Turkish presidential press secretary Ibrahim Kalin announced that it is Ankara, which is to control the future security zone.  Meanwhile, local media reported that up to 80,000 troops may be involved in this operation.

But the US sees the situation differently. When he proposed creating the security zone Donald Trump first threatened Turkey with devastating sanctions if it attacks Kurds. This means that after leaving Syria Americans want to use the buffer zone to protect the allies they have been counting on for the last several years.

Although there are many disagreements between Washington and Ankara they share one common ground: the security zone should be established. Naturally, no one was and is not going to ask Syria about it. Meanwhile, the Syrian news agency SANA reported referring to a source in the country’s foreign ministry that Damascus sees such plans as “clear aggression and an occupation of its territories.”

It is remarkable, that the prospect of a security zone would not be on the agenda, if Kurds agreed to give the districts to the east of the Euphrates river (or let it be only that 32 km wide frontier on the first stage) under control of the Syrian army.

At least they have been in talks with Damascus not for the first day, the contact has been established, and at first sight the threat of a new division of the Syrian territory can be removed quickly and easily. The governmental troops will serve as more than reliable buffer between Ankara and YPG. However, there are no such agreements in sight.

Moreover, “the Syrian democratic forces” (armed groups with the backbone represented by  YPG) issued a communiqué, expressing readiness to provide support in establishing the security zone in the north of the country on condition that it will have “international guarantees.” As one of the Kurdish leaders Aldar Khalil said, deploying the UN forces in that zone but definitely not the Turkish forces would be an acceptable variant.

But it is well known how such overtures end. It is enough to remember how the situation developed around Syria’s Afrin and the nearby districts, the Turks eventually took by force and as result the Kurds were left out in the cold.  

However Russia still has a say. On January 16, at his annual press conference Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov only mentioned that the security zone will be discussed during the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow on January 23. But the top diplomat made it clear that the immediate goal is “to restore Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

Judging from the experience of previous years – and Turkey has been promoting the idea of creating a buffer zone in one form or the other on the Syrian border since 2013 - one can say that Russia will be definitely against it.

It is fair to say that Moscow’s instruments to influence the situation in the districts to the east of the Euphrates river are limited and Erdogan is fully aware of it. But he also understands quite well that he should not challenge Vladimir Putin one more time because it will affect not only the situation in Syria but the bilateral relations. So the forthcoming talks are going to be difficult.  

Meanwhile some media in the Middle East are speculating on whether Moscow would agree with the creation of the security zone in exchange for the clean-up of Idlib, which has been recently almost fully seized by the Jabhat al-Nusra group (outlawed in Russia). However it turns out, this zone is a tasty morsel for Turkey and the conditions to get it are more than favorable. That is why Ankara will definitely fight for it.