Media: Facing wave of unrest, Maduro may turn to mediation from Moscow
Having severed Venezuela’s diplomatic relations with the US following Washington’s recognition of Juan Guaido as interim president, incumbent head of state Nicolas Maduro is inclined to hold dialogue with the United States in order to set up offices in the two countries’ capitals that would represent their interests, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, TASS reported.
According to Academic Secretary of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies Dmitry Rozental, it has been a long time since mass protests such as the recent ones that erupted across Venezuela. The expert believes that these developments in the country indicate a boiling point in a years-long standoff between the branches of power. "The opposition considers the government to be illegitimate given the numerous irregularities that took place during the May 2018 election. The government, in turn, views the parliament as illegitimate based on the Supreme Court’s decision," Rozental explained to the paper.
Maduro still has a chance to remain in power, the expert said. "It is crucial for his government to pull through during the coming weeks. If Maduro somehow manages to ride it out, then the tensions will calm and these protests are very likely to die down. However, it won't mean that the problem will have been ironed out," he noted. According to Rozental, Maduro not only has the army’s support but also the support of the country’s people. "Although most Venezuelans do not approve of his government’s activities, about 30% of the voters do back Maduro," the expert said. He also noted that while the opposition's electorate outnumbered Maduro’s supporters, it remained fragmented.
"The external factor has certainly been playing a role as the Americans support the opposition, but it would be naive to think that only the US is to blame for developments in Venezuela," Rozental emphasized. The expert doubts that the US would launch any sort of direct military intervention in Venezuela. "At the moment, almost all countries in the region are against such actions. Latin America has endured an extensive amount of American interventions and utterly frowns on those events. Why would the United States quarrel with the whole region? Besides, the Venezuelan opposition has also spoken out against direct US interference," Rozental concluded.
Meanwhile, Venezuelan Ambassador to Russia Carlos Rafael Faria Tortosa said in an interview with Izvestia that the country was grateful to the Russian government, "which has always remained impartial, backed efforts to protect constitutional processes and opposed interference in the domestic affairs of other countries." Caracas is currently assessing Moscow’s offer of mediation, the ambassador added.
Kommersant: Ruxit threat leaves Council of Europe confused over policy course
In June, the foreign ministers of the Council of Europe's member states will put Russia’s membership up for review. Moscow has been absent from the sessions of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) for three years and has been reluctant to pay its contribution for nearly two years. Russia’s membership topped the agenda of PACE’s winter session, which took place in Strasbourg on January 21-25, Kommersant notes.
During the conference, PACE lawmakers passed two "anti-Russian" resolutions, one of which called for extending the application of the Magnitsky Act to all of Europe and the other demanded that the Ukrainian sailors detained during the Kerch Strait incident in November 2018 be immediately released. It was this sort of endless harassment that drove Russia to stop participating in PACE's sessions. Russian politicians are willing to return only on condition that the Assembly renounces any possibility of stripping national delegations of their rights.
Although most PACE members oppose changes to the organization’s rules, nevertheless, in December, the PACE Committee on Rules of Procedure granted Russia a concession, making it possible for all delegations, including those deprived of the right to vote, to elect the organization’s secretary general, human rights commissioner and European Court of Human Rights judges.
"But this is a consumerist approach," Russian Permanent Representative to the Council of Europe Ivan Saltanovsky told the newspaper. "What do they expect? That our lawmakers will come, vote, leave and the doors will close?"
Russia’s possible withdrawal from the Council of Europe is an unusual situation for the organization and there is no clear course of action.
"In this situation, they are highly likely to rely on the Greek precedent but other variations are possible," member of the Coordination Committee of the Youth Human Rights Movement Konstantin Baranov said.
In Greece’s case, the Council of Europe Committee of Ministers opted for automatically preserving the country’s membership in all conventions. However, if Russia stays, it will have a chance to denounce any of those accords, so Russian authorities will be able to choose which agreements to keep and which to abandon, Baranov explained.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US may pull out of Afghanistan next year
The United States and the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) are closing in on reaching an agreement to end the war. The Taliban have revealed the document’s core elements: a withdrawal of foreign troops within an 18-month time period in return for insurgents’ pledge not to shelter terrorist groups attacking the US and its allies, Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote.
The Taliban clarified that the deal involved a ceasefire but its timeframe has yet to be determined. The Taliban will launch talks with Afghanistan’s government once the ceasefire takes effect.
Truces have been declared in Afghanistan many times before. Most analysts do not believe that the Afghan military will be able to stand its ground without US support. Once the Americans leave, who will be able to guarantee the ceasefire? Any peace deal acceptable for the West and the Afghan government is expected to imply the recognition of the Afghan Constitution’s fundamental provisions enshrining civil rights, which, however, run counter to the Taliban’s view of Sharia law.
Former US Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker says that Washington wants to disguise its withdrawal. Moreover, what’s occurring now is reminiscent of the 1970s Paris talks between the US and Vietnam. The point is that a capitulation is on the way. The United States does not have any tools to turn the tide of the war in its favor.
Omar Nessar, a researcher with the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Science, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "there indeed have been contradictory reports about the agreement". "The Taliban are saying one thing and the Americans another," he noted.
According to the Afghan expert, many obstacles to peace are still in place. Kabul has not given its consent to a settlement on the conditions the Taliban office in Doha announced. Besides, there has been a change in the office’s leadership. "In any case, it is clear that the Americans will not be satisfied with a solution that will make their pullout look like a defeat," Nessar concluded.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Davos experts pitch four-day workweek
Reduced working hours bolster the quality of labor and creativity, said Adam Grant, a psychology professor from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, during the 2019 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Other experts echoed his view, pitching the proposal for a shift to a four-day workweek. This could be done in Russia, the only question is, at whose expense, said experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
"A reduced working week will in no way lead to a decline in economic figures," said head of the Industry Department at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Andrey Bystrov. "On the contrary, people will rest more and perform their work functions better," he said. People need more time to take care of their health and improve their skills, the expert added.
The key question is who will pay for additional leisure time. "For instance, big companies could reduce the workweek. But I suspect that in this case, their employees’ wages will drop," said Doctor of Economics Sergei Smirnov, a labor market expert.
According to him, a voluntary shift to a reduced workweek is worth trying. And after that, research should be conducted to figure out whether Russians feel better if they rest more or maybe after working hard, though many will spend their three days off drinking hard liquor.
Kommersant: Foreign retailers hesitant about Russian market
Last year’s figures on the number of new foreign companies on Russia’s retail market and the number of those who left the market are the worst in the past five years. Networks are reluctant to open big stores, preferring to develop small shops. This strategy is supposed to help keep customers in light of the continuing decline in people’s incomes and online trade pressure, Kommersant writes.
In 2018, 24 new foreign brands entered Russia’s retail market, down from 37 in 2017. At the same time, 12 networks withdrew from the country, compared to eight the year before, Knignt Frank said in a report provided to the newspaper.
"Low investment activity and western brands’ decreasing interest in Russia boost the domestic market and facilitate the development of new concepts," said Knight Frank Commercial Real Estate Department Director Yevgeniya Khakberdiyeva. According to her, pop-up areas have become popular in the past year, with short-term sales spaces created in shopping malls. Besides, the expert noted that retail spaces in new facilities tend to become smaller in size, while small shops are expanding.
Commercial Real Estate Department Director at CBRE Marina Malakhatko believes that apart from Russians’ declining incomes, fundamental changes in consumer demand given the generational gap and the rapid development of online trade are also reasons why more foreign brands have been pulling out of the Russian market. "Not all brands have had enough time to adjust themselves to the new conditions and adopt new methods of interacting with customers," she noted.
Knights Frank analysts are confident that despite a decline in people’s incomes, international retailers are still interested in Russia. Ipsos Comcon Executive Director Marina Bezuglova also brushed off the negative forecasts, saying companies that will be able to meet customers’ growing demands, will show better figures even under difficult market conditions.
