Almost immediately following Donald Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, frightened by US threats to make Turkey down and out, hastened to offer his "updated plan" to appease the Syrian Kurds – Washington's former allies in the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. No wiser idea came to the Turkish leader's mind than the creation of a "safe zone" in northern Syria.

The "safe zone" has long been Erdogan's bee in the bonnet and ultimate dream. The very next day after President Trump had revealed his decision, vibrant consultations between the two countries' policymakers were held in Washington and Ankara. And, quite naturally, the US State Department supported the Turkish initiative, because Turkey as a member of NATO and the same Global Coalition would not only maintain but also consolidate its military and political influence in Syria and the entire region. Secondly, the Turkish-controlled "safe zone" in the northeast of Syria, if at all created, will be a flagrant violation of the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, contradict the plans of Russia, Iran and Syria itself for a peaceful settlement of the internal political crisis.

There is an acting agreement of 1998 between Turkey and Syria on jointly combating terrorism. Back in those days, units of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK, leader – Mustafa Ocalan) were stationed in the Syrian territory next to the Turkish border, conducting sabotage operations against the Turkish border guards and military in the adjacent areas. Ankara forced Damascus to sign the agreement, threatening an armed invasion of Syria. The leadership of the former Soviet Union actually refused to protect Syria, fearing a conflict with NATO. Under the agreement signed, the Syrian leadership pledged to ban PKK's activities in the country and outlaw the party, to form a joint Turkish-Syrian special mission brigade to combat terrorism and to carry out coordinated anti-terrorist actions with Turkish troops along the border, if necessary.

Mustafa Ocalan announced the suspension of military actions against the Turkish military, left Syria for Moscow with a view to obtain the promised political asylum, but having encountered a refusal moved first to Greece, and then settled illegally in South Africa. There he was captured by Turkish special services and taken to Ankara to be sentenced to life imprisonment...

Erdogan agreed with the Americans to create a "safe zone" under the control of Turkish troops and their Syrian allies along the entire Syrian-Turkish border (about 900 km) with a depth of 28 to 32 kilometers and a width of up to 500 kilometers from east to west from the banks of the Euphrates river and almost to the border with Iraq. The Americans pledged to relocate all their former Global Coalition allies from this area to southern Syria and Iraq, referring to 20 thousand Kurdish fighters from the units of the Syrian Democratic Forces outlawed by Turkey, as well as to take away all of their heavy weapons and equipment.

In compliance with the agreements reached, the American side will either dismantle all their military facilities in Northern Syria or hand them over to the Turkish command. Trump amended his original plan: part of the military being pulled out of northern Syria will strengthen the garrison at the junction of the borders with Iraq and Jordan at the Al Tanf base, others will be relocated to the Iraqi Ayn al-Asad Airbase in the Anbar Province next to the Syrian border.

If Turkey succeeds in all its endeavors, it will capture control of a 185-thousand-square-kilometer territory, i.e. 1.5 times more the territory of Lebanon. This is a third of Syrian lands. Currently, Turkish troops and allied units of the Syrian opposition control the enclave of Afrin, and also the Turks are dislocated along the perimeter of the so-called "Idlib de-escalation zone" and partly in the north of the Latakia Province. The region is important in both the strategic military and the economic sense thanks to its two major highways, key oil and natural gas fields, Euphrates River with its water resources and the largest regional power station, fertile lands, etc.

Erdogan plans to bring to this territory a total of approximately 30 thousand Turkish troops and more than 10 thousand militants from the Syrian opposition groups. In addition, other Kurdish leaders are also seeking to possess part of this region. Thus, Ahmad al-Jabra, the leader of the Syrian Elite Forces (SEF) with about eight thousand fighters who took part in the battles against the Islamic terrorists in Raqqa, offers to place his forces in the provinces of Raqqa and Hasakah and outside the city of Qamishli. According to al-Jabra, he secured consent from Ankara, Washington, a number of Arab capitals, as well as foreign leaders of the Syrian opposition and even representatives of the leadership of Iraqi Kurdistan.

It is quite natural that none of the parties to the "safe zone" plan in northern Syria even tried to consult with the Syrian government. Over the last few days Ahmad al-Jabra was going to leave for Moscow and have talks but there was no information about it. He hardly should count on success...

There are other local players from among the Kurds on the Syrian political scene, offering their road maps for dealing with the problem of relations between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds. However, all their proposals are ultimately aimed at carving out a huge region from the central government's control, disuniting Syria, and creating a precedent for the territorial breakdown of a country. They are unacceptable to Damascus and to Moscow and Tehran siding with it.

Trilateral (Russia, Turkey and Iran) talks at the highest level in the Astana format are set to be held in Sochi on February 14. Apparently, on top of the agenda will be the viability of Erdogan's proposed plans to create a "safe zone", the outcome of the Warsaw NATO Council, where new sanctions against Syria, Russia and Iran should be adopted, as well as future actions of the three-state-coalition as regards the terrorist threat from the "Idlib de-escalation zone".

In the light of the developing military and political situation in Syria and around it, Ankara can hardly count on the support for Erdogan's latest idea, who failed to fulfil any of the obligations under Sochi agreements of September 17, 2018. Turkey is unlikely able to "digest" its claims and to achieve peace in northern Syria with no regard for the interests of Russia, Syria and Iran.

With a strong indication we can say that the updated Turkish-American adventure is hardly viable: Damascus and Moscow will never agree to implementing it just as promulgated.