In Ukraine, Valentine's day was marked by the news about the voters' profession of love for Vladimir Zelensky. On this very day, perhaps the most reputable sociological service of Ukraine, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), disclosed its findings. Reportedly, this comedian, founder and leader of the TV production company Kvartal 95 would appear as the undisputed leader, should the elections be held during the first ten days of February.
He enjoyed the support of 16.4 percent of the total number of voters, while President Petro Poroshenko had 10.8 percent, and the recent undisputed leader of the presidential race Yulia Tymoshenko – 9.6 percent. If we consider those intended to vote and resolved, the leaders have 26.9 percent, 17.7 percent and 15.8 percent respectively. Zelensky has the lead in the central, southern and eastern parts of the country with solid advantages. And in the West of the country and the Donbass region he is running second to Petro Poroshenko and Yuri Boyko respectively. The same survey shows that the showman easily wins in all the models of the second round, getting twice more votes than the current President and 1.5 times more votes than Yulia Tymoshenko.
Yes, Zelensky's leadership in surveys emerged early in the year and was gradually strengthening. Today, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology is not the only entity to show this kind of the actor's breakaway from professional politicians. However, referring to the results of its survey as the electorate's affection for Zelensky, I implied an indicator that is even more demonstrative as regards the difference in attitude towards him and other participants in the race. Thus, about 39 percent of voters take a positive view of the showman, who burst into politics, against only 23 percent of those opposing his possible presidency. As for the other top-rated candidates, each of them has at least two negatively predisposed respondents per a positive-minded one.
The new political party Servant of the People led by Kvartal 95 employees has similar ratings in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada set to be held in October. It was them who nominated Zelensky, but the Central Election Commission of Ukraine pegs him as a non-party candidate.
For most of the population the "Servant of the People" name is not so much about a party as a TV series about an ordinary teacher Vasily Goloborodko who was unexpectedly elected President of Ukraine and started pursuing a fair policy. Tycoon Igor Kolomoyskyi, considered to stand for Zelensky, said that the showman discovered political ambitions immediately after the series. Interestingly, the film started being screened in the spring of 2015, right after the conflict between Poroshenko and Kolomoyskyi has led to the resignation of the latter from the post of the Governor of Dnepropetrovsk.
Let's suppose this was a coincidence, and the filmmakers did not conceivably envisage its success, with the first season watched by more than 20 million viewers in the fall of 2015, while on the official Kvartal 95 YouTube channel this figure accounted for 98 million. But it is hardly accidental that in December 2017, immediately after the equally successful second season's release, the country saw the appearance of the Servant of the People party. Well, the third season is due to come out in March 2019, coinciding with the end of the election campaign, and will probably become the most powerful advertising tool.
Zelensky's place among the election race leaders is indicative of a brand new disappointment of the Ukrainians in traditional career politicians. One can hardly say that voters had ever been fascinated by them before, but in the course of all the previous national elections, nonprofessionals and their parties lagged far behind the leaders. Vitali Klitschko's political career is not a case in point here. After all, the heavyweight champ embarked with a failure of heading the bloc "Civic party" PORA-ROP in the 2006 election to the Verkhovna Rada, and became deputy and faction leader only in 2012, after having been combining sports with political activities for six years, including his post in the Kiev City Council.
Zelensky's leadership in the election race is objectively congruent with the logic of Euromaidan, one of the engines of which was the regime renewal request, including both those at the helm and the style of relations between the state and the people. As you know, no new leaders had been offered back in those days, but as a consequence not only Yanukovich was brought down, but also the ratings of the leaders of the then opposition. It is no mere chance Poroshenko, who had been a second-rate figure until 2014, became the new President. Hopes for renewal, however, were associated not with politicians' names, but with the influence of the European Union. At the time being these hopes have dispelled, but the need for a impartial regime remains unchanged.
As for Zelensky, most people in the country are critical of the leading state and public institutions, but those among the showman's electorate account for even more than among those supporting other leading candidates. The KIIS survey conducted last April revealed that Zelensky enjoyed the lead in two categories of voters: young people under 30 and people with higher education.
Unfortunately, not a single detailed survey of this kind has been published since then. But I think the picture of Zelensky's popularity general growth has not changed a lot. As for geopolitical affinities, sociology invariably shows that a considerable though not predominant share of the showman's electorate is made of people whose idea about Russia, the Russian language, developments in the Donbass region, and NATO contradicts the view that has been imposed by the Ukrainian authorities for almost five years.
Among supporters of Boyko, Muraev and Vilkul the share of such voters is even greater, but if we consider all the other top-rated presidential hopefuls (except Oleg Lyashko), it is significantly smaller.
But what did Zelensky do or say over the last couple of months that his ratings had soared that much? Trying to answer this question, I scanned all the news about him on the website of the Ukrainian Independent Information Agency. Owned by Igor Kolomoyskyi, this information resource would have never missed anything important in this respect. But I haven't found any resonant statements by Zelensky on urgent issues.
As for the resonant actions, the two stages of his nomination should not go unmentioned. On December 31, just a few moments before the New Year, Zelensky appeared on the 1+1 TV channel (which also belongs to Kolomoyskyi), and voiced his intention to run for the presidency. For this reason the channel became the only one to show President Poroshenko's address after midnight already.
This announcement looked like a challenge to the President and entailed the first increase in the showman's popularity.
The nomination itself was a normal routine. The Servant of the People's congress, during which the candidate was nominated, appeared as a private function. And Zelensky's electoral program registered by the Central Election Commission of Ukraine doesn't even mention the major personal concern of most Ukrainians, e.g. tariffs for housing and utilities services, which Timoshenko, for one, promises to reduce by half. As for the Donbass war, shortly before the New Year, the candidate gave the only interview on political issues, talking about negotiations with the President of Russia and mutual compromise. But the official program only says that "we will take up the matter with the guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum and partners from the EU as regards supporting Ukraine in its endeavors to end the war, regain the temporarily occupied territories, compel the aggressor to recoup for damages." The only difference with Timoshenko's position is that she speaks directly about both Crimea and the Donbass region, while Zelensky does not mention any region explicitly.
But hardly anyone reads those programs, and I believe that the latest increase in Zelensky's popularity is associated with the very fact of his nomination and registration as candidate. It seems that previously many voters did not consider such a prospect possible, but after Zelensky added support to rumors about his electoral participation, a lot more people began to draw an analogy with Vasily Goloborodko.
But can a cinematic character help win the election, even against the backdrop of the third season of the popular series? Zelensky seems to believe that it can, since his trips to the regions had so far reminded Kvartal 95 team meetings with the audience rather than a public personality's communication with his electorate.
However, as the election approaches, it appears that voters will expect the candidate to give direct answers to issues that cause most concern with the society. And it is anybody's guess how convincing his answers will be. It is also unclear how vulnerable he will prove to smear campaigns prepared by his rivals.
But so far Zelensky is clearly in the lead, having lured away part of Yulia Timoshenko's voters. Thus, the showman turned this electoral campaign into the most intriguing thing in the history of modern Ukraine. After all, in previous years the two final candidates or the first round winner were known long before the election itself (1991, 2014). Finally, in 1999, it was plain that in the second round President Kuchma will stand against a left-winger (three of them had good chances). But nowadays none of the race leaders cannot be sure of getting into the final. This information will only become available on April 1, i.e. the Day of Laughter, which can be rightfully considered Zelensky's professional holiday.
