The armed conflict in Donbass has been one of the most important problems of Ukraine for the last four years. According to a recent study by the Center for Analysis and Sociological Research of the International Republican Institute, it is "military actions in Donbass" that are considered the most pressing issue in the life of the country by the maximum number of respondents - 49%. At the same time, a significant number of Ukrainians - 40% support an exclusively peaceful solution of the problem, another 45% support a combination of political, diplomatic and power methods, TASS reported.
That is why the topic turned out to be one of the key ones during the current presidential election campaign scheduled for March 31. The point focused on solving the "issue of the territorial integrity of Ukraine" was included in the programs of all runners for the highest state post. At the same time, experts noted, that almost none of the 39 candidates could present a clear strategy and step-by-step plan for resolving the conflict.
"In order to bring peace back, there must be an exit strategy out of the conflict, and no one has it," leading Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev said. All serious presidential candidates understand that the problem is not easy to solve and therefore afraid to promise anything concrete, Chairman of the board of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko said.
"Cold Peace" from Poroshenko
Back in May 2014, the day after winning the presidential election, Pyotr Poroshenko said that the military operation in Donbass, which Kiev called anti-terrorist, would last hours, not months. Four years later, the guarantor of the Constitution had to apologize for these words. Poroshenko today is much more cautious in forecasts and speaks only about diplomatic and political methods of settling the conflict in the region. "We will continue the line for renewing the territorial integrity of Ukraine by political and diplomatic means," according to the current president’s program.
Poroshenko himself calls his approach "cold peace". He rules out returning the territories beyond Kiev’s control by force, but he is not ready either for a partnership with Donbass or to recognize the self-proclaimed republics. Rhetorically, the president remains committed to the Minsk agreements, but at the same time ignores the main provisions of the document, supporting the introduction of an international UN mission in the conflict zone.
He is categorically against both direct negotiations with heads of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), and with Russia. He is counting on increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia on all international platforms, strengthening sanctions, lawsuits against the country, and demands compensation.
Zelensky: Cease-fire and starting negotiations
Vladimir Zelensky, the presidential race’s leader from the "Servant of the People" party, who is reproached for the lack of a clear program, formulates his position on Donbass cautiously, trying to attract voters from all political camps at once. On the one hand, he stands for peace, negotiations and the Minsk format. On the other hand, appeals to the participants of the Budapest Memorandum, speaks about the need to attract new Western partners to the Minsk process, demands compensation and the "inadmissibility of surrender of national interests".
"We must conquer the world for Ukraine. We will raise the issue of supporting Ukraine in an effort to end the war before the guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum and EU partners, to return the temporarily occupied territories and force the aggressor to repair the damage. Surrendering national interests and territories ca not be the subject of any negotiations," his election program said.
In his public speeches, Zelensky emphasizes that he rules out the use of a force scenario and declares he is ready for negotiations. "First of all, I want to stop shooting. It’s important to save our people," he said.
Zelensky proposes to bring other Western countries to the Minsk format, but does not specify which ones.
Tymoshenko: ‘Budapest Plus’ formula
Yulia Tymoshenko, head of the Batkivshchyna party, who occupies the second position in the popularity ratings among voters, intends to abandon the Minsk agreements altogether. "Our team has developed a Ukrainian program for reintegration of Crimea and Donbass, which serves as an alternative to today's Minsk formula," she said.
Tymoshenko’s program proposes a new format - "Budapest Plus". "To establish peace in Donbass, Ukraine must return to the Budapest Memorandum, which was signed by the leaders of the United States and United Kingdom, and then supported by France and China," she said.
According to Tymoshenko, immediately after the presidential elections, she intends to gather presidents and prime ministers of the countries who gave Ukraine security guarantees under the Budapest memorandum. The parties must begin "real negotiations" on Donbass, she said. At the same time, she dies not support granting of a special status to Donbass and considers federalizing Ukraine as a way to growing separatism.
Boyko: Minsk agreements and special status of Donbass
The presidential candidate from the Opposition Platform-For Life party Yury Boyko presented the most detailed program for peaceful settlement of the Donbass conflict. He is the only candidate who declared he was ready to enter into direct negotiations with all parties to the conflict for the sake of peace and returning Donbass to Ukraine’s jurisdiction. "The business of blood and suffering will be terminated. People will be able to return to their homes. We will ensure the real neutrality and non-alignment of Ukraine. We will overcome contradictions with all neighboring countries, including Russia," the presidential candidate said.
At the same time, Boyko is confident that the Minsk agreements should remain the basis for achieving peace in the region. The politician is ready for a direct dialogue with the Donbass republics. At the same time, the dialogue between Ukraine and the unrecognized republics should take place, in his opinion, "under control of Russia and the US as guarantors of compliance with the reached agreements."
Gritsenko: Returning Donbass without "special statuses"
Leader of the Civil Position party and the former Minister of Defense Anatoly Gritsenko, who closes the top five of leaders of election ratings, does not mention the Minsk agreements at all, but is committed to returning Donbass to Ukraine within five years. "We will return the occupied territories without ‘special statuses’ by diplomatic, military, economic, sanction methods together with foreign partners. This can be done during the five-year presidential term," the candidate said.
At the same time, Gritsenko proposed to close the border with Russia and disarm DPR and LPR militia.
The conflict
After the coup d'·tat in Ukraine in February 2014 and the removal of President Viktor Yanukovych from power, mass protests began in the east of the country, dominated by the Russian-speaking population. In the middle of April of the same year, the country’s new leadership began a military operation in Donbass.
According to the UN at the end of 2018, 12,800-13,000 people have died from military actions, including around 3,300 civilians, 4,000 Ukrainian military personnel, 5,500 people - militia. In addition, 27,000-30,000 people were injured.
In an effort to put an end to violence in eastern Ukraine, in June 2014, the leaders of Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France began to develop measures to resolve the conflict, which were finalized in February 2015 and were called the Minsk Agreement. They include not only a cease-fire, withdrawal of weapons, amnesty, resumption of economic ties, but also a deep constitutional reform in Ukraine, which should result in decentralization of power, taking into account the special status of certain regions.
However, the plan is still unfulfilled. The Ukrainian side abandoned the agreement’s political points, citing the unresolved security issues. Kiev insists on the need to introduce UN peacekeeping mission to the region, which would assume the functions of an interim administration with the subsequent transfer of full power to Kiev, which fundamentally contradicts the Minsk agreements.
