Kommersant: Russia’s arms exports reach $15 bln despite US sanctions
Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to hold a meeting of the commission on military-technical cooperation soon, where he will announce the official results of Russia's arms exports for 2018, sources close to the government and the presidential administration told Kommersant. The final figures, according to the newspaper, exceeded expectations - arms and military equipment to the tune of $15 bln have been delivered abroad and new contracts for over $20 bln were signed, which is one of the biggest sums in the history of modern military-technical cooperation. This was achieved in the first year of the US CAATSA sanctions have entered into force, which were aimed, among other things, at countries cooperating with Russia, TASS reported.
According to the newspaper, initially the event was scheduled for mid-March, but was put off for April due to President Putin's schedule. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Kommersant that the meeting "may take place before the end of April."
A source in the defense industry told the newspaper that majority of weapons and military equipment were supplied under long-term contracts with "traditional partners." According to sources, Russian enterprises did not experience any serious obstacles in fulfilling previously concluded contracts, although attempts by individual US officials or intelligence agents to "put pressure on customers" through threats of restrictive measures happened quite often.
Starting in January 2018, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) took effect, which levied sanctions against Russia affected third parties. However, these measures did not cause serious damage, a defense company top manager told Kommersant, Rosoboronexport and the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation are making "titanic efforts" to preserve Russia’s positions in the market, "conducting dozens and hundreds of talks on all fronts."
"You cannot relax," a high-ranking source in the government told Kommersant. According to the source, the implementation of strategic projects in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America will begin in 2019. "Our Western ‘friends’ will do everything to thwart their fulfillment. So, we must do everything to carry out our obligations," the source said.
Izvestia: Rosneft to spearhead development of Northern sea route
Rosneft is looking into the possibility of establishing its cluster in the Arctic, the company’s CEO Igor Sechin said at a meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. According to him, the company is already working on attracting strategic partners to the cluster’s development and by 2030 oil production in the Arctic could reach 100 mln tonnes. The new project would ensure the implementation of Putin’s May Decree to transport 80 mln tonnes of cargo along the Northern Sea Route by 2024, Izvestia wrote.
"Oil production at the Arctic cluster can start by 2024. The first phase, with growth of up to 100 mln tonnes by 2030. The combined assets will become a center for attracting strategic investors. We are already working on it," Sechin said. According to him, investors from the West and from Southeast Asia are showing interest.
Creating the cluster would also contribute to reaching the goal set in the May Decree: transporting 80 mln tonnes of cargo along the Northern Sea Route by 2024, Sechin said. The Zvezda shipyard in the Primorsky Region should also help the development of the Northern Sea Route, he added.
The Arctic is a rather difficult region for extracting and exporting resources, but at the current level of technology and prices here you can get a product with high margins, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute Alexander Frolov told Izvestia.
Rosneft has been assigned the role of an economic driver to develop the Northern Sea Route, member of Russia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry committee on energy strategy and the development of the fuel-energy complex Rustam Tankaev told the newspaper.
"The company not only has a powerful resource base in the Arctic zone and a powerful production base - a shipyard - but also actively utilizes modern information technologies in the development of the northern fields, which allow it to significantly cut operating costs," the expert said.
Vedomosti: Comedian’s win no joke as Poroshenko faces possible defeat in runoff
The landslide victory of actor Vladimir Zelensky over current Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko, in the first round of the presidential race in Ukraine makes the comic's victory in the second round very likely, Vedomosti wrote. According to the country's Central Election Commission, after processing 90.26% of the ballots, Zelensky got 30.26% of the votes, whereas Poroshenko took home 15.98%. Furthermore, Zelensky won 19 out of 24 regions of Ukraine and Kiev, while Poroshenko’s only success was in two western regions. According to experts, interviewed by the newspaper, almost all political players now have their goal set: not to let Poroshenko win and that has been almost reached.
"Poroshenko’s results can be considered humiliating for the current president," political analyst Alexey Chesnakov told the newspaper. "This does not mean that he has completely lost his chances of being elected, but in order to win the second round he needs to take some serious steps," he noted. According to the political scientist, there will be almost no coalitions for the runoff, since parliamentary elections are just around the corner coming this fall and the top five candidates don’t want to lose their electorate.
Right now, a complicated landscape of political and business interests will not enable a coalition to form without harming Zelensky, Director of the Kiev Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev told Vedomosti. According to the expert, the final figures are now important for Poroshenko. It’s one thing is to lose with 20% of the votes cast, it’s another with 30-40%. "After the parliamentary elections, he can become the leader of the new opposition, which will ensure security for himself and his business," Karasev pointed out.
Poroshenko’s failure is a reflection of the global trend of distrust towards the establishment, political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko told Vedomosti. Poroshenko decided that the electorate of the southeast of Ukraine could be ignored, and disproportionately shifted his attention to the country’s west.
Izvestia: Russians do not want to unify with Belarus
There is no need to unite Russia and Belarus, both states should simply maintain good-neighborly relations, said 48% of those surveyed in response to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center’s new poll on Russia-Belarus proposed integration. Thus, 51% of Russians heard about the Union State of Russia and Belarus established 20 years ago for the first time only in 2019. Experts interviewed by Izvestia, noted that, despite the high geopolitical potential of creating a real Union State, the population of both countries would still not be ready for it.
Thus, 48% of the survey’s participants believe that there is no need to unite Russia and Belarus, just foster good neighborly relations. If the state were to unite, it should be on an equal basis (18%) or by joining Belarus into Russia as one or several subjects (17%). According to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, Russians give high marks to the current ties between both countries. In their opinion, relations with the neighboring state are "normal, calm" (30%), "friendly" (22%), "fine and good-neighborly" (15%). Some, on the contrary, believe that now the relationship is ‘’cool" (15%), that there is tension (9%) or even hostility (1%).
"Russians like the fraternal Belarusian people, but the idea of uniting the states evokes wariness. The reason is the latent fear that the decision could lead to ambiguous consequences for the Russian economy," Head of the he pollster’s Political Analysis and Consulting Department Mikhail Mamonov told Izvestia.
The relationship between Russia and Belarus is stable but could flourish even further, political analyst Anton Khashchenko told the newspaper. "The fact that half of the respondents do not know about the Union State indicates a decent potential for the development of integration processes, even in the public field. In recent years, the Union State’s interaction within the framework of the parliamentary assembly has noticeably grown. It is necessary to harmonize national legislation, perhaps in the future, it is worth talking about introducing a single currency," the expert said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia freezes gasoline prices for three more months
Starting from April 1, the government’s agreement with oil refining companies to freeze fuel prices has been extended. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the authorities disguise extending the agreement as a shortage of time to switch to a new export system. That is, oil companies are offered selective restrictions on exports - issuing licenses after the domestic market is filled. According to the newspaper, the system went 30 years back to the 1990’s idea.
The new system will imply "manual control", and violations will be punished by revoking licenses, the newspaper wrote. Meanwhile, there are prerequisites for price hikes on the global market and Russian companies might simply lose out on profit from exports by increasing supplies to the domestic market first. At the same time, promised measures for reimbursing loss profit from the budget do not work.
"It is quite possible that the current government agreements with oil companies can be extended for quite some time," leading analyst at the National Energy Security Foundation Igor Yushkov told the newspaper. He added that the system would ultimately lead to social stability in the country. People want to see stable prices for gas, and do not care whether the budget compensates oil companies’ losses.
Tamara Kasyanova, a 2K Managing partner, believes that the current deal will not be extended indefinitely, but does not rule out that it will function for quite some time. "The government wants to get away from manual control and will try to do it. We will see how successful it will be," the expert said.
