In the morning of July 22, it became clear that a previously unknown political force was gaining an absolute one-party majority in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, which had never happened in the country after the "Bloc of Communists and non-Party people" became part of history.
Thus, real life departed from the plot of the Servant of the People TV series by implementing a scenario that looked fantastic even on the eve of the presidential election and must have seemed fantastic back when the show was created. After all, Vasyl Holoborodko played by Zelensky was consistently opposing the hostile parliament, while in real life Zelensky is able to fundamentally change the composition of the 450-deputy parliament thanks to his brand.
According to the lists, his Servant of the People party did not surpass sociologists' optimistic forecasts. The turnout was 12 per cent less as compared to the presidential elections, with the largest voter outflow registered in major cities that were most actively voting for the president's party. As a result, the Servant of the People will enjoy not half of the votes but 42-43 percent, which nevertheless provides a vast majority of some 122 party list mandates and victory in 22 regions out of the 25. Considered Zelensky's shatterpoint, single-mandate districts have hit the headlines. After about half of the ballots were counted, president's party candidates turned out to be leading the way in 123 of them, typically with a noticeable margin.
And none of the other political forces has proven able to bring even a dozen candidates to the parliament.
Former President Petro Poroshenko can scarcely reckon upon the role of an opposition leader. His European Solidarity faction (former Petro Poroshenko Block) won't be second in the parliament. The result of eight per cent allows counting on 25 deputies at best, with two more elected in constituencies under the party brand. Besides, another 13 deputies of the current convocation have made it into the parliament as self-nominated candidates belonging to factions of PPB and People's Front.
But it is highly unlikely that all of them are going to rush into the European Solidarity faction. Allegedly, most of them will traditionally abstain from being in opposition to the authorities. It would seem that following the election results, Poroshenko's party will even concede to Yulia Tymoshenko's All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland".
And even in case of the best scenario of attracting 40 deputies, the former President's faction will not be second. The Opposition Platform — For Life led by Yuriy Boyko and Viktor Medvedchuk advocating direct talks with the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, will get 37-38 seats with their 13 percent of votes. It scored a double-digit victory in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but in other regions of the country's south-east appeared second well behind the Servant of the People.
The Opposition Platform faction should be second, and the number of its members may reach fifty under the most favorable conditions. So, theoretically speaking, it could comprise deputies from the Opposition Bloc who were elected in constituencies and whose number would be about 7 people including self-nominees.
The smallest faction in the current parliament is rock musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk's Voice party with its six per cent of the vote. Despite the modest number of its members, the party is likely to become a fraction for the West to place its stake on, if Zelensky's policy will seem to be lacking pro-Western attitude. After all, with the exception of Vakarchuk himself, its list consists entirely of people who have never been in the parliament.
Therefore, just like the Servant of the People, this party reflects the society's demand for renewal and has a high potential therefore. In addition, there are no oligarchs on this list, and, most importantly, the party is one hundred per cent anti-Russian. There were rumors that it is the West that inclines Zelensky's party to form a coalition with Voice, while ahead of the vote Servant of the People's representatives referred to this political force as the most attractive partner for a coalition.
But still, the probability of such a scenario looks next to nothing so far, because no party able to rule alone will give such an opportunity away. And the number of Servant of the People's representatives in present-day Verkhovna Rada will correspond to the number of the parliamentary majority under Victor Yanukovych.
However, that majority of regionals, communists and opportunistic fellow travelers of the power had a tough time in 2012-2013 faced with the opposition. Not only is the present-day opposition to Zelensky divided into pro-Russian and nationalist, but also the total number of its two wings' members will be nearly half the Servant of the People faction. Therefore, Zelensky's major concern is not the opposition, but his faction's readiness to cling to the line of settling the Donbass conflict he pledged in his inaugural message, even at the cost of his own rankings.
Statements of certain "servants of the people" who made it into the parliament, do not give much ground for optimism on this issue. Yes, this is an obvious minority in the entire faction. But other votes are almost inaudible for the time being. Zelensky's team looks nailed-up and should be united not by the party discipline, which its members are not accustomed to, but by careful thought. After all, almost all of them found themselves in the Parliament thanks to the president's brand alone, and if opposed to this brand, they will drastically lessen their chances for a political future.
However, the Donbass issue triggers so many emotions that not all Servant of the People' deputies are going to abide by such an assumption. All the more so because lawmakers of this kind may regard the Voice party as a worthy alternative to the president's one.
However, the time has not yet come to reason about such scenarios' probability. First, it is still unknown what lengths Zelensky is ready to go to in Donbass. Secondly, sentiments within the faction will only become clear after the Ukrainian parliament's first essential votes.