\"Dawn of Yemen\": South Yemen kicks off operation against the Houthis

The situation in Yemen has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Formations of the Arabic Coalition deployed in South Yemen have launched active combat operations against detachments of the Shiite Ansar Allah movement of North Yemen, which are holding positions in the area of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea coast.

October 5 saw head of the South Yemeni government Rashad al-Amini announce the start of military operation Dawn of Yemen and an offensive by "coalition forces" against positions of the North Yemeni Ansar Allah movement in the country’s southwest. "All state military, security structures, and civilian institutions have been placed on heightened alert until the mission is completed and victory is achieved," he declared. The stated goal is complete rout of the armed formations of the Houthi tribe (Ansar Allah) "and control establishment over the country's capital, Sanaa."

 Al-Alimi explained that the country is moving toward a "new dawn" together with its allies led by Saudi Arabia. The operation involves Yemeni armed forces and allied formations of the "Giants Brigades" and the "National Shield," with a total strength of up to 100,000 people. Air support for the offensive is being provided by the Saudi Arabian Air Force.

An official representative of the South Yemeni command reported on the establishment, on the very first day of the offensive, of fire control over the road between the cities of Zubab and Mokha, and the capture of Zubab airfield. Both population centers are situated on the shore of the Bab al -Mandeb Strait. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defense explained that, before the operation began, the Kingdom's Air Force delivered massive strikes against Houthi positions engaging 100 fighter aircraft, according to the Turkish agency Anadolu Ajansi.

In turn, the Ansar Allah-controlled Saba agency, citing a military source, asserts that reports of the Houthis losing control over the city of Zubab are not consistent with the reality. It is reported that this is merely "an attempt to conceal the failures and repeated defeats of the forces" enjoying the support of Saudi Arabia.

It should be frankly acknowledged that Ansar Allah formations will be hard-pressed, first of all by the active operations of Saudi combat aviation. There is no data about the Houthis possessing effective air defense means. As for combat operations against the advancing forces, one may assume with sufficient confidence that the northern Yemenis, possessing extensive experience and practice of close-quarters combat, will not only hold their ground but also inflict significant damage on the enemy. It must be said that the government of South Yemen has at its disposal up to 10,000 to 15,000 regular army troops. Everyone else are mercenaries from Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Libya, and Saudi Arabia. It is quite possible that the Saudis have moved some of their Pakistani military personnel to Aden — the same troops who, on contract, had been handling internal security in the Kingdom's big cities, especially during the busiest pilgrimage seasons. At certain times, their numbers fluctuated from 20,000 to 40,000.

As for the Arabic Coalition, it does not exist. Having numbered about two dozen states under the aegis of Saudi Arabia in 2014, it effectively ceased to exist after the 2022 truce between North and South Yemen.

According to a Reuters report, on October 4 the US once again declined a request from the Saudi Arabian leadership for direct military assistance in restoring freedom of navigation in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Undoubtedly, Ansar Allah will, within the coming days, deliver powerful missile and drone strikes against military and industrial facilities in Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni Houthis may well receive fire support from Shiite formations in Iraq, which by this time have distinguished themselves by putting the Trans-Arabian oil pipeline between the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea out of operation.