“Euro-ABM,” CFE: Two Different Concepts

President Vladimir Putin’s annual state of the nation address to Russia’s legislature has sparked heated discussion in the West of late, especially the part where he mentioned the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE).

In his state-of the nation address televised across the country Putin talked about the geopolitical changes that had occurred since CFE was signed in 1990, quite logically pointing to the fact that one of the parties to the treaty, the Warsaw Pact, had long ceased to exist. As of now, Russia has found itself almost the only country which has ratified it and is faithfully abiding by its provisions. In fact, Russia is disarming unilaterally. As for the Western nations, each of them has found some pretext not to ratify CFE.

Therefore, Putin Thursday called for a moratorium of CFE by Russia at least “until all NATO countries without exception ratify it” and abide by it like Russia does today almost unilaterally.

The Russian president also suggested discussing this issue in the NATO-Russia Council and said Russia could consider suspending the European arms control treaty if no progress is made.

Putin’s CFE moratorium initiative caused dismay in the West.

European Commission’s Jose Manuel Barroso described Putin’s statement as a “disappointing signal” Friday.

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer expressed concern over Russia’s decision and requested clarifications from Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov said Russia was alone in applying the arms control treaty and no longer wanted to be "the only actor in a theater of the absurd."

Still, he added, Russia’s moratorium on CFE would not affect the balance of forces in Europe because that balance had been shattered by NATO long before, and the European arms control treaty became senseless.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that “everyone is expected to live up to treaty obligations.” Incidentally, Ms. Rice was the one who linked Russia’s decision to pull out from CFE with the U.S. missile defense plans for Europe. However, she dismissed Russia’s concerns that the “Euro-ABM” would shatter the balance or spark a new “cold war” as “ludicrous.” She is sincerely convinced that a ten-interceptor battery and one radar can hardly affect the military and political balance in Europe.

Leading Western media lost no time in echoing and reiterating Rice’s statement. The multiple comments in the U.S. and European press boil down to a conclusion that Moscow decided to retaliate to the U.S. missile defense plans in Poland and Czechrep by suspending CFE.

This position seems one-sided and superficial, and in addition, Ms. Rice is obviously confusing two different concepts. The Russia president’s statement was certainly dictated by the existing European and global political realities. The U.S. has plans to site its missile defenses in Eastern Europe, and not just in Poland and the Czech Republic. New U.S. bases are to appear in Bulgaria and Romania soon, with 2,700 and 2,300 U.S. servicemen (respectively) to be deployed in those two European countries. For reference, Bulgaria is as close to the Russian border as 300 kilometers (the width of the Black Sea). Neither Scheffer, nor Barrosa, nor Rice mentioned these plans in the context of the CFE spirit.

Hundreds of thousands U.S. servicemen have been deployed closer to Russia’s borders under various pretexts in the past decade. The presence of the U.S. and allied forces in Iraq and Afghanistan certainly affects the alignment of forces around Russia.

In this context Russia looks weird faithfully abiding by its CFE commitments. This is what Putin and Lavrov were talking about. In this situation, U.S. antimissile bases in Europe are a secondary factor, even though this issue is in the political spotlight today. Even if the U.S. decided to deploy some different defensive or offensive facilities in Poland and Czechrep, Russia’s response would be the same. Because, just like State Secretary Rice said, everyone is expected to live up to treaty obligations. The keyword is “everyone.”

We will soon know whether or not the U.S. and Europe have realized this. On May 10, the NATO-Russia Council will meet in Brussels. The Russian delegation will make yet another attempt to explain this country’s position to its western partners. The future of the key European arms control treaty will depend on that meeting.