Two years of Israel’s war with HAMAS: key outcomes

On October 7, 2023, militants from the most radical organization, the Al-Qassam Brigades of the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS), carried out an armed attack, reckless in its objectives, on several Jewish settlements and Israeli military garrisons in the border area. The attack resulted in 1,972 Israeli casualties (1,512 civilians and 454 military personnel). 251 hostages were taken. Subsequently, 148 people were released, and 54 died during the Israeli offensive. The rest are still being held by the Palestinians.

October 8, 2023 saw the Israeli army embark upon military operations in the Gaza Strip. Its primary objectives have been the following: release of hostages and complete destruction of HAMAS' military and political infrastructure. As per Israel’s command data, by early May 2025, the total number of Palestinian casualties in the sector was 53,000, including 44,100 civilians and 8,900 Islamic activists. The Gaza Strip's Ministry of Health has provided different figures: the total number of victims is 66,148, of them 27,605 men, 9,735 women, 18,430 children, and 4,429 the elderly.

By October this year, the Israeli army has controlled nearly the entire territory of the Palestinian Gaza Strip, except for several areas in the southern part of its capital, the city of Gaza. During the war, the warring parties, mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, held negotiations on ceasing hostilities and a mutual release of hostages, resulting in two agreements on a temporary ceasefire. The Americans were the most active mediators, developing and proposing, on behalf of Donald Trump on September 30, a plan to end the war and measures to restore peaceful life in the area.

The American initiatives provide for further Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on establishing peace. The initial stage envisions joint actions for a ceasefire, an exchange of hostages and bodies, a subsequent withdrawal of Israeli troops to established lines, and a complete disarmament of HAMAS units as supervised by security structures in a number of Arab countries. The issue of forming unified government and local administration bodies with the Palestinian Authority (West Bank) is being considered. However, former HAMAS activists should not be engaged. Chances for foreign states' participation in restoring civilian infrastructure and economy destroyed during the war is being determined.

The weakest link in the American plan, named after Trump and termed "comprehensive," is absence of any mention of laying the foundations for an independent Palestinian State. Thus, the key problem for the Palestinians and the Arab states that formally support them remains unresolved and could potentially lead to another conflict in the future.

Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on implementing the American plan kicked off on October 6 in Cairo. The mediators are the United States, Egypt, and Qatar.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the current head of the Israeli government, has stated that he is not only adamantly opposed to prospects of a Palestinian state but will also not allow the Palestinian Authority to extend its power to the Gaza Strip. Thus, it becomes apparent that Israel only agreed with the US to secure the release of the Jewish hostages and HAMAS’ disarmament.

At the same time, it should be frankly acknowledged that the government of the Jewish state has largely succeeded in solving a number of strategic tasks.

First, the Israeli army has coped with completely defeating the armed formations of Palestinian Islamic resistance in the Gaza Strip and secured the state's western borders.

Second, throughout this period, Israel has all but completely destroyed military infrastructure facilities of the Iran-loyal Shiite organization Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, eliminating its senior and mid-level command. Currently, the Israelis are systematically eliminating survivor activists and identified storage sites for weapons and military equipment of the Lebanese Shiites, pitting their leaders against party activists of other confessions to proceed with the internal political confrontation in that country.

Third, Israel took an active part in preparing and executing a state coup in Syria by striking military infrastructure targets, significantly weakening the state's defense capabilities and undermining the authority and influence of President Bashar al-Assad. To this day, Tel Aviv keeps systematically bombing Syrian territories and, apart from the Golan Heights, effectively occupies a number of areas in Syrian regions, the desire Arab Republics’ new leadership’s despite to sign a peace treaty with Israel.

And fourth, the state coup in Syria and defeat of Lebanon's Hezbollah entailed a loss of Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon, weaker positions in Iraq and Turkey, and complications in ties with monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. This, in turn, let Israel and the US deliver a series of devastating strikes on Iranian military and economic targets in June this year. As a result, Iran’s defense capabilities got significantly damaged, and its leadership suffered a reputational blow among its people.

Iran, the key opponent of Israel (and the US) in the region, has been severely shaken, if not defeated. Its partners have much to think about.