Europe’s prospects of securing a seat at the Ukrainian conflict settlement talks, Serbia’s future following the opposition’s surprise win in the snap elections, and Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s historic election victory, which will him to work with the opposition. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Izvestia: Can Europe become party to Ukraine peace process?
Europe does not want Russia and the US to reach an agreement on Ukraine without its involvement and is seeking a seat at the negotiating table. Meanwhile, most countries, including those in Northern Europe, are primarily financing and prolonging the conflict. Norway had previously played a leading role in efforts to resolve the crisis. However, Oslo has not yet submitted any peace proposals to Moscow. Experts believe that it will not be possible to exclude the Europeans entirely, but for now, their position is more likely to hinder the process. While Brussels is seeking to participate in the negotiations, Russia and Ukraine, with US mediation, have agreed on a ceasefire in Alyoshki in the Kherson Region.
Europe is not monolithic; however, the actions of most countries, including those in Northern Europe, are primarily aimed at financing and prolonging the conflict, Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. "If they put forward any statements or proposals, they resembled ultimatums and were not regarded as mechanisms for seeking a peaceful settlement," he noted.
In turn, the Russian embassy in Oslo said in a comment to Izvestia that the involvement of biased parties -- that is, those that consistently pursue an anti-Russian agenda and unconditionally support Kiev -- in the talks is unlikely to facilitate mutually acceptable agreements. Diplomats emphasized that such steps cannot be regarded as impartial peacemaking initiatives. "No proposals for a settlement of the Ukrainian crisis have been received from the Norwegian side, which has consistently advanced Kiev’s interests throughout the conflict," the embassy pointed out.
According to Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov, Europe’s current position is more likely to impede a settlement: European countries are not putting forward constructive proposals during the negotiations, so neither Moscow nor Washington is considering bringing them into the current format. However, it is impossible to establish a new European security architecture without their participation. At a certain stage, their involvement will become not merely desirable but necessary, the expert stressed. To achieve this, Europe will have to take a more flexible stance, he said.
In turn, St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeremina emphasized that local ceasefires like the one in Alyoshki are possible only with the involvement of a third party capable of exerting pressure on Kiev. This case demonstrates how the parties can swiftly reach an agreement under limited and verifiable conditions when the timeframe and specific area are clearly defined, and a mediator and observers are present. Yeremina noted that a global settlement does not yet have a comparable practical framework. The wider peace deal would extensive security guarantees, she stressed.
Media: Extent of Serbia’s change after opposition's sensational victory
The Student List opposition bloc, formed just a month and a half before the vote, unexpectedly won Serbia’s snap elections. With nearly 100% of the ballots counted, it secured more than 52% of the vote and is expected to claim 140 seats in the 250-seat National Assembly, the country’s unicameral parliament. This gives the opposition the opportunity to establish a single-party government. The Serbian Progressive Party, which has been in power since 2012, garnered 39% of the vote, an estimated 103 seats.
The campaign in Serbia took the form of a referendum, as voters chose between the incumbent government and a protest movement, Balkans studies expert Oleg Bondarenko told Vedomosti. According to him, the opposition’s victory will not bring about rapid changes in the country. "Of course, we shouldn’t expect Belgrade to introduce sanctions against Russia anytime soon. However, much will depend on who assumes the roles of prime minister and president," Bondarenko pointed out.
Serbia is entering a new, turbulent period of transformation in both domestic and foreign policy, political scientist Darko Todorovski emphasized. "The Student List bloc is not a political party in the traditional sense, but rather a movement that has attracted everyone dissatisfied with Vucic’s policies. It remains unclear whether it will be able to preserve its unity, given the ideological diversity of its members," he added. According to the expert, Serbia’s foreign policy direction under the new government will not see significant changes in the first year. On the one hand, Belgrade will maintain its policy of balancing between centers of power, albeit with some nuances, and will preserve good relations with Moscow. On the other hand, the government will continue to seek closer ties with the EU without compromising Serbian interests, the political scientist said.
Meanwhile, commenting on cooperation between Moscow and Belgrade, Russian National Energy Security Fund Deputy Director Alexey Grivach told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the price of Russian gas supplied to Serbia is currently two to three times lower than the European spot market price. However, the long-term contract between Russia and Serbia expired some time ago and is extended every three to six months. "This was done once again in September and will remain in effect until the end of the year. Serbia’s new government will have to address this issue in the middle of winter, likely amid a severe energy crisis in Europe and around the world. Given that gas transit to Hungary and Slovakia passes through Serbia, the situation poses a significant threat to regional energy security," he stressed.
As for possible Serbian restrictions on the Russian economy, they will have a very limited impact, expert Alexander Firanchuk noted. According to him, Serbia’s share of Russian exports and imports stands at nearly 0.3%. "The imposition of sanctions against Russia is unlikely to become a top priority on Serbia’s agenda. The economic consequences of such decisions should be assessed objectively, based on the actual scale of trade ties," the expert said.
After trailing in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva managed to take the lead and win the second round with 51.79% of the vote, compared to 48.21% for his main rival, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2021), Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The latter told reporters that it was "impossible" for him to concede the election results. Although Lula won by a margin of more than four million votes, his defeated opponent is reluctant to accept the results and intends to contest them.
Lula has secured a historic victory, as since the country became a republic, no president who lost in the first round has ever won in the second, let alone been elected four times, political consultant Pavel Dubravsky told Vedomosti. According to him, the second debate strengthened Lula’s standing, not least because of Bolsonaro’s attempts to belittle the incumbent head of state. For example, the right-wing candidate pointed out that Lula was missing a finger, his little finger on his left hand, which he lost at age 19 in a workplace injury while working at a steel mill. "And Lula da Silva’s campaign team made full use of this to show Bolsonaro’s disconnect from ordinary working people," Dubravsky pointed out. He emphasized that this contrast was the central strategy behind Lula’s victory. "Lula portrayed himself as a defender of the working class. And during the debates, he appeared as a dignified statesman," the political consultant said. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s remarks about his opponent came close to foul play, which didn’t win him any points, Dubravsky stressed.
The election demonstrated that in a democracy, the outcome is never a foregone conclusion, Viktor Heifets, editor-in-chief of Russia’s Latin America magazine, emphasized. According to him, Lula achieved the main goal of his campaign by rallying voters who had not supported him in the first round. "For example, he won over some of the voters who had supported presidential candidate Augusto Cury, who was knocked out in the first round [after receiving 2.89% of the vote]," the expert noted. Lula managed to better mobilize his core voters for the second round and capitalize on people’s fears over a potential Bolsonaro victory. The senator himself, on the other hand, lowered his guard too early and failed to build on his success in the first round, Heifets pointed out.
Despite an unprecedented result in Brazilian history, Lula will have to work with a Congress where the influence of right-wing opposition forces, led by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, has grown considerably following the election. The party won 121 seats, 24 more than in the current session. Overall, right-wing and center-right parties will hold 341 of the 513 seats.
Izvestia: Slovakia to keep purchasing Russian fuel despite EU pressure
Slovakia intends to continue buying fuel from Russia for its nuclear power plants. Bratislava is also interested in preserving gas imports from Russia for as long as EU legislation allows. Meanwhile, Brussels has decided to fully eliminate Russian natural gas supplies by September 30, 2027. Despite EU pressure, Robert Fico’s government was the first among EU member states to restart the activities of the intergovernmental commission on economic, scientific, and technical cooperation with Moscow. The large Slovak delegation was headed by Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar, who was making his first visit to Russia. Moreover, during his October 26 trip to Moscow, the top Slovak diplomat not only discussed opportunities for cooperation with Russia but also shared assessments with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the situation in Ukraine and the crisis between Russia and the EU. Thus, Slovakia remains one of the most pragmatic European countries, pursuing a balanced approach toward both Russia and the settlement in Ukraine.
In its relations with Slovakia, Russia should prioritize short-term projects for now, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, told Izvestia. According to him, parliamentary elections will take place in Slovakia next year, the results of which could change the country's political direction. The expert noted that if the opposition takes power, the work of the intergovernmental commission could be suspended again. However, current Prime Minister Robert Fico has demonstrated his readiness to expand cooperation with Moscow despite Brussels’ disapproval. Overall, Slovakia is behaving as though it were the only sensible country in the EU that defends its own interests, Trukhachev emphasized.
Slovakia intends to buy Russian gas as long as it is legally permissible, Economy Ministry’s State Secretary Vladimir Simonak, who participated in the meeting, told Izvestia. "We comply with all restrictions arising from EU law. At the moment, the legal status is what it is. As long as the law allows us to purchase Russian gas, we will be happy to continue doing so. As for the future, that is a matter for negotiations. We are trying to protect our interests, including within the EU," he stressed.
Bratislava also intends to keep buying nuclear fuel from Russia. There are two nuclear power plants in the country: the Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant in the west and the Mochovce Nuclear Power Plant in the central part. Both facilities were built with the involvement of Soviet and Russian specialists. "We plan to continue purchasing fuel. The existing partnership is long-term and, in my opinion, is being maintained reliably. Nuclear fuel is not subject to sanctions, either those currently in force or those planned. Therefore, in this regard, we plan to maintain this cooperation," Simonak noted.
"Our position on sanctions is that we must ensure they do not damage our interests as much as they have in the past. As you know, the Slovak government believes that there is no military solution to the conflict in Ukraine. And we would prefer a rapid, peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine rather than a further tightening of sanctions, which would restrict opportunities for cooperation," the state secretary pointed out.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Why US fails to stop diesel crisis, potential risks for Russia
After a slight decline in mid-October, diesel fuel prices in the US and Europe resumed their upward trend last week. In the US, diesel prices neared the record highs recorded in late September, while in some European countries they surpassed those levels. The mid-month drop in diesel prices was apparently triggered by reports that Russia was resuming diesel exports and the US was lifting restrictions on such shipments. However, the market later responded to broader global factors, such as rising oil prices and a persistent supply shortage.
Interestingly, Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the volumes of diesel that Russia committed to supplying to the global market in October and November (300,000 and 500,000 metric tons, respectively) could not have a substantial effect on global price dynamics. According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun's estimate, the cumulative disruption to diesel supplies reached 1.3 million barrels per day in September. Meanwhile, the initially announced Russian shipments of 300,000 metric tons amount to 2.2 million barrels, or just 73,000-75,000 barrels per day when distributed over a month. This accounts for less than 6% of the reported supply disruptions.
Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to downplay the resumption of diesel exports from Russia, Simonov emphasized. In 2025, Russia accounted for 9.5% of the global diesel market. Its shipments reached 3.5 million metric tons per month, or about 800,000 barrels per day. And Russia aims to return to this level by taking advantage of favorable market conditions, such as the temporary lifting of US sanctions on its diesel exports and high prices in overseas markets. Russian supplies at 2025 levels could push global prices lower. However, while the resumption of diesel exports benefits Moscow, a resolution to the global energy crisis might not. After all, the US would quickly reimpose all the sanctions it had lifted against Russia, the expert stressed.
At the same time, experts agree that overcoming the global diesel crisis and securing a sustained price decline is possible only if Russian fuel exports resume alongside the restoration of oil and petroleum product supplies from Persian Gulf countries -- that is, after the conflict in the Middle East ends.
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